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OU

Oklahoma 44 at Baylor 34

BAY
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:47 · Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 1 yd to the Bayl 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−24.9Pregame prior+3.4Score differential−11.8Garbage-time factor−7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:28: Devin Chafin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +15.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:53: Samaje Perine run for 55 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +17.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:49: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to LaQuan McGowan for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +19.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 10:29: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +28.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 4:47: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +15.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:05OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:18OU 4th & 25 at BAY 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:26BAY 4th & 6 at OU 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:37OU 4th & 4 at OU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:50BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 26, down 1
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:21BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:03BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:49BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 24, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:47OU 4th & 5 at BAY 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:12BAY 4th & 8 at OU 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:32OU 4th & 14 at OU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−4.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47OU 4th & 14 at BAY 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:38BAY 4th & 21 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:01OU 4th & 11 at OU 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−6.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:26BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38OU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:53OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:58BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:28BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:52OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:53OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:49BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:29BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:47OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5539% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.6%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
60.6%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Shawn Oakman and Andrew Billings for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 23Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
60.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 11 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
60.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3961% → 63%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+34
60.6%
Shock Linwood run for 34 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
61.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shock Linwood for no gain to the Okla 46 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Evans) to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
61.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
61.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shock Linwood for 4 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+6
61.0%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
61.2%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
61.2%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.5%
Devin Chafin 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:4839% → 41%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
61.5%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
61.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 8 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
61.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
50
0
61.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
50
+18
61.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Shawn Oakman) to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
61.2%
Baker Mayfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+5
61.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Taylor Young) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
61.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+9
61.6%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
61.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
61.3%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
59.2%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3360% → 60%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
60.1%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Bayl 38 Devin Chafin fumbled, forced by Jordan Evans, recovered by Okla Devante BondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4741% → 40%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
59.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 13 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
58.7%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-15
58.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede Westbrook OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Orlando Brown) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 27
OPP 42
+2
59.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 25
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Austin Seibert punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:5259% → 60%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
59.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
59.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+14
59.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 14 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
59.7%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
59.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Spencer Drango) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-11
59.4%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Cannon, KD, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Colbert, Pat) 11 yards to the BAYLOR12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 25
OWN 12
+1
59.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 24
OWN 13
+34
59.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 34 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
60.9%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+3
59.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
59.7%
Jarrett Stidham punt for 41 yds, downed at the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4040% → 41%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
59.6%
Samaje Perine run for 10 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
58.8%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-4
58.8%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Brian Nance for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 17 Baker Mayfield fumbled, forced by Brian Nance, recovered by Okla Baker Mayfield , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+7
59.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 24
-2
59.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 54 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4760% → 58%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.5%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.4%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
58.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
58.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 54 yds, downed at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5742% → 51%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
58.4%
Perine, Samaje rush for 1 yard to the OKLAHOMA21, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Darlington, Ty) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+12
58.5%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
58.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
59.3%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Westbrook, Dede, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Howard, Xavien) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
58.0%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
57.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
56.9%
Baker Mayfield run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 47 Baker Mayfield fumbled, recovered by Okla Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
56.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
56.0%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+39
48.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3252% → 50%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.3%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
51.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
50.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
50.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5752% → 53%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
48.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
48.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
46.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
46.6%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Travon Blanchard return for 3 yds to the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:2653% → 66%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
52.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
52.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+12
52.8%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
54.1%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+5
53.8%
Linwood, Shock rush for 6 yards to the OKLAHOMA16, PENALTY OKLAHOMA 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
53.9%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
52.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
53.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
51.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Okla 6 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Dominique Alexander) to the Okla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.9%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:3042% → 61%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
57.7%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+15
56.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 15 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
54.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
53.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
52.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 18 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
51.5%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+19
51.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 19 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:2845% → 44%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
45.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 16 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
45.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
45.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+22
44.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Davion Hall for 22 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3245% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
44.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Matthew Romar for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
44.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+37
42.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 37 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
47.8%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+10
45.7%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
47.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
48.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+19
48.4%
Shock Linwood run for 19 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.7%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:3644% → 63%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
55.8%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
54.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+14
53.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 14 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
52.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+34
52.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 34 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.9%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
37.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4941% → 39%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.2%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
38.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 27 yds, downed at the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
21.7%
Samaje Perine run for 55 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0425% → 23%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
25.4%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
24.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+2
23.5%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
23.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0281% → 81%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
19.1%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
18.8%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+17
18.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
18.0%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
16.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
16.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+1
18.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:5821% → 46%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+39
20.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Gus Penning for 39 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
23.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
23.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-2
22.9%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+23
21.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 23 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to LaQuan McGowan for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1767% → 64%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
33.5%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 40 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jonathan Alvarez) to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+6
35.5%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
36.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 37 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3339% → 38%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
38.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+17
38.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Zack Sanchez return for 17 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1271% → 72%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
29.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
29.0%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
-1
28.0%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
29.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
27.7%
Austin Seibert 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:0930% → 23%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
30.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-3
28.3%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 15
OPP 44
-6
25.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Charles Tapper for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 21
50
0
22.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 47 yds, downed at the Okla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3776% → 77%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
24.3%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 3Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+7
23.6%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-8
23.4%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Travon Blanchard for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 2Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 11
OWN 2
0
22.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Okla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:3225% → 52%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+27
23.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 27 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
52.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:4261% → 92%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
39.0%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+15
38.0%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete, PENALTY BAYLOR horse collar tackle (Blanchard, Travon) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
36.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 17 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
32.9%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
32.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
31.6%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
29.7%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+19
28.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 19 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
27.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Baker Mayfield) to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
24.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for no gain to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
24.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
11.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Ahmad Thomas return for no gain to the Okla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:3592% → 97%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
7.9%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
7.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+16
8.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
6.8%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
5.3%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
4.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-4
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 36
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:29
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+28.6
TD · Q3 2:49
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to LaQuan McGowan for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q3 8:53
Samaje Perine run for 55 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com