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BAY

Baylor 31 at Kansas State 24

KSU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2015 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:16 · Drew Galitz punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KANSASST 25 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Jimmy Landes) to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−23.1Home team on offense−14.7Score differential−7.2Garbage-time factor−5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:53: Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:06: Corey Coleman 81 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:10: Corey Coleman 3 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:47: Joe Hubener run for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Deante Burton 10 Yd TD pass from Joe Hubener (Jack Cantele Kick) — KSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:30KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:20KSU 4th & 2 at BAY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:44BAY 4th & 18 at KSU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:43KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:45BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:08BAY 4th & 10 at KSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00KSU 4th & 18 at BAY 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    12.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:47KSU 4th & 6 at BAY 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:16BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:49KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40BAY 4th & 1 at KSU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−3.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:39KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:25BAY 4th & 2 at KSU 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:28BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:51BAY 4th & 18 at KSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:14BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:53KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:57BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:06BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:10BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:47KSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:07KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 1:3391% → 91%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+36
8.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 36 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
8.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
8.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
9.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
9.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shock Linwood for 21 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
9.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
9.2%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
20 plays · 88 yds · 9:079% → 14%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
9.2%
Joe Hubener run for 9 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
9.3%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
9.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 7 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+1
9.7%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
9.7%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
9.8%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
10.0%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+19
10.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 19 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
10.5%
Joe Hubener run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
10.8%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
11.1%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
10.9%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 5 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
11.4%
Joe Hubener run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+12
11.6%
Charles Jones run for 12 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
11.8%
Charles Jones run for 13 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.9%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4887% → 89%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.4%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
13.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
13.5%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
11.2%
KD Cannon 55 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:1012% → 15%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
11.8%
Joe Hubener run for 9 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
12.3%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
12.4%
Joe Hubener run for 9 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
13.0%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
13.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Terrale Johnson) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+21
12.9%
Joe Hubener run for 21 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
13.9%
Charles Jones run for 9 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+4
14.2%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
14.6%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
14.7%
Joe Hubener run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 23 Joe Hubener fumbled, forced by Jamal Palmer, recovered by Bayl Johnny JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:3887% → 86%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
13.2%
Corey Coleman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+21
13.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 21 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
12.5%
Corey Coleman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
12.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
12.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 15 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
12.5%
Stidham, Jarrett rush for 1 yard to the KANSASST38, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Muir, Blake) 9 yards to the KANSASST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 19
OPP 48
+5
12.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Gus Penning for 5 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
13.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-4
13.4%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Will Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
14.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:2114% → 15%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
14.0%
Joe Hubener run for 11 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
14.4%
Joe Hubener run for 9 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+1
15.2%
Glenn Gronkowski run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
14.7%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Joe Hubener pass intercepted Ryan Reid return for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
10.1%
Corey Coleman 81 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1710% → 11%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.3%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
10.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Charles Jones for 2 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
10.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:2290% → 90%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
10.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
10.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
9.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
9.9%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
9.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+2
9.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+6
10.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
9.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
9.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
10.3%
Jarrett Stidham punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:5511% → 10%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
10.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Winston Dimel for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Shawn Oakman) to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Glenn GronkowskiSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
11.4%
Joe Hubener run for 13 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
11.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Hayes) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-10
11.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Whitehair) to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 25
OPP 45
0
11.2%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 25
OPP 45
0
11.1%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Glenn GronkowskiSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 25
OPP 45
+7
10.9%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 7 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OPP 38
-15
9.5%
Joe Hubener sacked by Grant Campbell for a loss of 15 yards to the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:4011% → 14%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
10.8%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
10.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+31
10.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 31 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
12.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Terrale Johnson) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+3
11.7%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+16
11.6%
Joe Hubener run for 16 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
12.2%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
12.3%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
11.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
13.5%
Jack Cantele 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:0787% → 87%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
13.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
13.1%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
12.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Spencer Drango) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+13
13.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 13 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
12.3%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
12.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+14
13.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KANSASST 25 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Jimmy Landes) to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2214% → 13%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
14.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
13.6%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
12.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 27 yds, downed at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:2087% → 95%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
13.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
12.3%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+10
12.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
12.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 7 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
12.0%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
12.2%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+38
13.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 38 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.8%
Corey Coleman 3 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:088% → 7%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
7.7%
Joe Hubener run for 6 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
7.7%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
7.7%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.8%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
6.7%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
6.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 4:1996% → 98%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
4.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+21
3.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 21 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
3.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shock Linwood for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
3.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Shock Linwood for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
3.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
50
+5
3.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-3
3.4%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Donnie Starks for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
3.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 8 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
3.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
3.2%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
3.2%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the KanSt 32 Devin Chafin fumbled, forced by Charmeachealle Moore, recovered by Bayl Devin ChafinSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+9
3.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 9 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
3.1%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-5
3.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Spencer Drango) to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
3.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
3.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
1.8%
Chris Callahan 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 1:582% → 8%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
2.0%
Justin Silmon run for 9 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+19
2.1%
Justin Silmon run for 19 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
2.1%
Kody Cook pass complete to Charles Jones for 21 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
2.3%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
9.6%
Joe Hubener run for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
7.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & -6
50
+15
8.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0295% → 95%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
5.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
4.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+3
4.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
5.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:536% → 23%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
5.7%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 7 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+46
6.1%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Winston Dimel for 46 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
6.8%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+11
6.5%
Charles Jones run for 11 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
7.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
5.2%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
4.9%
Joe Hubener run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.9%
Deante Burton 10 Yd TD pass from Joe Hubener (Jack Cantele Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:5489% → 94%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
11.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 40 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
7.9%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+11
6.9%
Devin Chafin run for 11 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
7.1%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
4.2%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-10
4.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-6
4.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Travis Britz for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 18
OPP 24
+41
5.9%
Chris Callahan 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
10.7%
Kody Cook pass intercepted Terrell Burt return for no gain to the Bayl 24 BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:2095% → 95%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-5
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:07
Deante Burton 10 Yd TD pass from Joe Hubener (Jack Cantele Kick)
+18
TD · Q3 5:10
Corey Coleman 3 Yd TD pass from Jarrett Stidham (Chris Callahan Kick)
-8.7
TD · Q4 9:47
Joe Hubener run for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com