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OKST

Oklahoma State 70 at Texas Tech 53

TTU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:37 · Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:49: Raymond Taylor 28 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +29.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:40: Ian Sadler 20 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +24.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:04: J.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +35.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:23: James Washington 75 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +18.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:48: DeAndre Washington 4 Yd Run (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Jonathan Giles for Two-Point Conversion) — TTU win probability +29.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:21TTU 4th & 10 at OKST 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−3.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 6:28TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:16OKST 4th & 1 at TTU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:48OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:11TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 41, up 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:16OKST 4th & 18 at TTU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:51TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:52TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:37OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:06TTU 4th & 1 at OKST 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−4.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:40TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:45OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 14:14TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:34TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:25OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:13TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:42OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:35TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 8:14OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:37OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:46TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:51OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:49OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:40TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 12:04OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 9:23OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 4:48TTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 3:50OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 0:06OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4649% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
49.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 31 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
49.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+42
49.9%
Justin Stockton 42 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2450% → 49%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
49.8%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+28
50.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 28 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.1%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
50.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+12
50.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
50.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
50.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jeremy SeatonSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-6
50.8%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Micah Awe for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 45 Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by OKSt Michael Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 97 yds · 1:0652% → 55%
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
52.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
52.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.0%
Justin Stockton 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0246% → 45%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
54.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 4 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
55.0%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Dakota Allen return for 3 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1156% → 60%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
56.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+12
57.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 12 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
57.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+4
58.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
58.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
59.7%
Clayton Hatfield 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5641% → 46%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
59.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for no gain, lateral to James Washington for 17 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.1%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+13
59.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
59.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
59.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 19 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
53.8%
Blake Jarwin 19 Yd pass from Austin Hays (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:3138% → 44%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
61.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 9 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+11
62.1%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
62.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 23 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
62.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 11 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
61.8%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+10
61.2%
J.W. Walsh run for 10 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
61.5%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+10
63.2%
Mason Rudolph run for 10 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
56.0%
Austin Hays 12 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:0758% → 73%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+20
57.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 20 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
59.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
59.3%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+12
59.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 12 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
59.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-1
60.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+10
60.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 10 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
73.0%
Jakeem Grant 12 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0631% → 41%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
69.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
70.1%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
70.0%
Chris Carson pass complete to Mason Rudolph for 7 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
71.1%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
71.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 14 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
70.5%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Glidden, David, PENALTY TEXASTECH personal foul (Johnson, Jah'Shawn) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
69.8%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Chris Carson for 19 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.4%
Raymond Taylor 4 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 1:4662% → 62%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
62.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kris Williams) to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 21
OWN 10
+3
62.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 18
OWN 13
-5
62.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Tony Morales) to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 23
OWN 8
+15
61.8%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Lauderdale, Devin, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Hunter, Michael) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 8
OWN 25
-5
61.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Quinton White) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
61.5%
Michael Barden punt for 44 yds, fair catch by David Glidden at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5137% → 49%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 5 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
62.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 11 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
62.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-6
62.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Demetrius Alston for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 12
50
+14
64.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 14 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
62.8%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+31
51.4%
Brandon Sheperd 31 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 2:5158% → 71%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
58.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+14
56.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 14 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
59.7%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Davis, Reginald, PENALTY OKLAST offside (Bean, Jimmy) declined, NO PLAY, PENALTY OKLAST roughing passer (Taylor, Vincent) 15 yards to the OKLAST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
60.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+16
60.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
60.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 6 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
61.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:4030% → 30%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
70.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
68.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 7 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
66.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
67.1%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
69.0%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
68.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
69.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
69.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1231% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.9%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
67.8%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
70.6%
Raymond Taylor run for 8 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
69.6%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
70.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Victor Salako) to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
71.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3773% → 72%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
72.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 20 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
73.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+8
72.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Le'Raven Clark for 8 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
72.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-6
72.3%
Michael Barden run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5531% → 26%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
69.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
71.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 18
OPP 43
0
72.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
74.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2574% → 59%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
74.0%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
74.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
74.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+67
58.9%
Jalen McCleskey 67 Yd Punt Return (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5261% → 59%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
61.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
61.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-2
60.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
59.2%
Michael Barden punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1542% → 38%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
58.3%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
59.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
60.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
62.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3162% → 63%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+31
61.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 31 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
65.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
65.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
65.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 6 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
63.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the OKSt 33 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, recovered by TexTc Patrick MahomesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1741% → 70%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
59.3%
Jeff Carr run for 15 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.4%
Jeff Carr run for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
57.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+23
59.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 23 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
29.6%
Raymond Taylor 28 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0939% → 70%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
38.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
37.4%
Michael Barden run for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
42.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
42.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Brad PearsonSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+25
39.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 25 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
46.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+9
45.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
45.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
45.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
70.1%
Ian Sadler 20 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3638% → 73%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+64
62.3%
J.W. Walsh run for 64 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.7%
J.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:3338% → 46%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
38.4%
Jakeem Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Vincent Taylor) to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
41.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 18 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
43.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+8
45.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
45.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Michael Hunter return for 8 yds to the OKSt 14 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 93 yds · 1:0869% → 88%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
31.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 11 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
30.5%
Raymond Taylor run for 7 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+75
12.5%
James Washington 75 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3514% → 43%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.5%
Patrick Mahomes run for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
14.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 8 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+9
15.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 9 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
16.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
15.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
15.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 6 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
16.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+12
15.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 12 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
14.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 4 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
14.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
14.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.3%
DeAndre Washington 4 Yd Run (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Jonathan Giles for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5874% → 90%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.7%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27 J.W. Walsh fumbled, forced by D'Vonta Hinton, recovered by OKSt Raymond TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
9.8%
James Washington 73 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:249% → 8%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
8.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 22 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
8.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
8.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
7.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
7.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 11 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
8.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-6
7.7%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 49 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, forced by Jarrell Owens, recovered by OKSt Vincent Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4194% → 95%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-3
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+3
5.2%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 14
OWN 45
-5
5.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 19
OWN 40
+13
5.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 37 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 13 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31INT TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:394% → 2%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
4.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 10 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
4.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
5.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Lauderdale) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 25
50
+59
1.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted for a TD Ramon Richards return for 59 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
1.8%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the TEXASTECH 49 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:04
J.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-35.6
TD · Q3 1:49
Raymond Taylor 28 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-29.8
TD · Q4 4:48
DeAndre Washington 4 Yd Run (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Jonathan Giles for Two-Point Conversion)
+29.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com