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TEX

Texas 0 at Iowa State 24

ISU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:06 · Joel Lanning sacked by Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior−20.3Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:00: Joel Lanning run for 20 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST down — ISU win probability +3.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:26: Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the Texas 22 — ISU win probability +3.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ISU win probability +3.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:49: Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 27 — ISU win probability +3.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:11: Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 14:11ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06ISU 4th & 3 at TEX 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:40ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15ISU 4th & 16 at TEX 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:04TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45ISU 4th & 3 at TEX 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:05ISU 4th & 10 at TEX 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:20TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:10ISU 4th & 2 at TEX 41, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−3.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:44TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:22TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:23ISU 4th & 11 at TEX 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:28TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:13ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:18TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:05TEX 4th & 5 at ISU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:38ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:11ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:10ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4425% → 25%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.0%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
25.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
25.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.3%
Colin Downing punt for 37 yds, downed at the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3775% → 74%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
25.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-3
25.5%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-2
25.9%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Levi Peters for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+10
26.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 43 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 10 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:4226% → 31%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
26.3%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+1
26.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 1 yd to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+10
26.7%
Joel Lanning run for 10 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
27.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 9 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
27.6%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
27.6%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
27.8%
Lanning, Joel pass complete to Lazard, Allen for 4 yards to the TEXAS40, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Dagel, Brock) 10 yards to the IOWAST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+14
27.8%
Mike Warren run for 14 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
28.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+17
28.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 17 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
28.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 20 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.7%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4270% → 67%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
30.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
30.2%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
30.6%
Daje Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
30.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
30.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
50
+1
30.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-6
31.4%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Levi Peters for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
32.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:3233% → 37%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
32.7%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
33.1%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+15
33.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 15 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
34.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
34.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+18
34.0%
Joel Lanning run for 18 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
35.6%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
36.0%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 9
50
+13
35.7%
Joel Lanning run for 13 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
37.0%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
37.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 7 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
37.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-3
36.7%
Joel Lanning sacked by Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0664% → 63%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.0%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
36.3%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+2
36.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
37.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0637% → 38%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
37.4%
Mike Warren run for 17 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
38.2%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
38.9%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Bundrage, Quenton, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Davis, Davante) 15 yards to the TEXAS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
39.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
40.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-7
39.4%
Joel Lanning sacked by Peter Jinkens for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
38.3%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Daje Johnson returns for no gain to the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:2661% → 58%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
39.3%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
40.0%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+3
40.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
40.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
40.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
41.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
41.6%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
41.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
41.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+9
43.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 9 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Jerrod Heard pass intercepted Jordan Harris return for no gain to the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4546% → 47%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
46.0%
Joel Lanning run for 20 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
48.6%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
49.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 4 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
49.8%
Joel Lanning sacked by Hassan Ridgeway for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-3
49.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
48.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
47.1%
Holden Kramer punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0552% → 49%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
48.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+1
48.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
50.1%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
50.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11FG
17 plays · 46 yds · 2:5552% → 56%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
51.3%
Mike Warren run for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.6%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
52.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+7
51.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+5
50.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
53.7%
Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
54.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
53.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
54.7%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
54.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+7
53.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 7 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
55.2%
Joel Lanning sacked by Paul Boyette Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 10Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
56.2%
Cole Netten 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
54.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 18 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3543% → 38%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Roderick Bernard for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
60.1%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
62.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0362% → 63%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
61.9%
Joel Lanning run for 11 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
63.6%
Trever Ryen run for 3 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
64.1%
Joshua Thomas run for 4 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
63.8%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
63.3%
Holden Kramer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1937% → 32%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
62.9%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 12 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
62.9%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+7
64.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 7 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+1
65.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 1 yd to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+27
67.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 27 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2968% → 88%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
68.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by IowSt Joel LanningSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
68.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
69.7%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
71.2%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
71.0%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
72.5%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Davis, Davante) 9 yards to the TEXAS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
72.6%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
73.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
87.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3314% → 12%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
86.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
86.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-4
86.9%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Demond Tucker for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3789% → 93%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
88.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 4 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+15
89.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 15 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.7%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
90.2%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
90.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.2%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
91.6%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.3%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-3
93.3%
Joel Lanning sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
93.2%
Holden Kramer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:477% → 7%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
92.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
93.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
93.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+71
93.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 57 yds, downed at the IOWAST 29 IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brian Bonacci) to the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1294% → 95%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
93.9%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 23 IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Brock Dagel) to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 13
OWN 12
+15
93.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jason Hall) to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.3%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
94.5%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
94.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 7 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.0%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-1
95.2%
Joel Lanning sacked by Peter Jinkens for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Colin Downing punt for 37 yds , Daje Johnson returns for no gain to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:485% → 4%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 6 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
95.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:5896% → 100%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
95.9%
Warren, Mike rush for 61 yards to the TEXAS0, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Taiese, Wendell) 10 yards to the IOWAST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 19
OWN 30
+6
95.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 6 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
95.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+22
96.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
97.1%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.2%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
97.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+13
97.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 13 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.7%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.0%
Trever Ryen run for 5 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 77 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 5 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+22
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Andrew Beck for 22 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 11 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+15
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 15 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
99.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+13
99.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 13 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:11
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+14.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+3.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 13:49
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 27
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com