Try the model
ISU

Iowa State 27 at Baylor 45

BAY
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:50 · Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+40.7Home team on offense+18.1Score differential+13.0Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Blowout margin+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:31: Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:47: Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten PAT MISSED) — ISU win probability +3.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:31: Chris Callahan 34 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:13: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:54BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:16BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:32ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:24BAY 4th & 6 at ISU 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:50BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:06ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:42BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:12ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 37, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:16BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:47ISU 4th & 21 at ISU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:25BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:43ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:31BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 17, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:10ISU 4th & 10 at BAY 29, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:25BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:00BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:53BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:14BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:49ISU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:31ISU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:47ISU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:13BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:10ISU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:2998% → 98%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
98.4%
Russell, Seth pass incomplete to Lee, Jay, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference 10 yards to the BAYLOR37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
98.4%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+16
98.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 16 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
98.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 13 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
98.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 9 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
98.2%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
98.1%
Mike Warren run for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 Mike Warren fumbled, recovered by Bayl Travon BlanchardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2098% → 98%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
98.1%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
98.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-4
98.1%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
98.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, downed at the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.0%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
97.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+3
97.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 3 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+36
97.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Travon Blanchard blocked by Travon BlanchardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:3698% → 98%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
97.9%
Shock Linwood run for 18 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.1%
Seth Russell run for 37 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
98.1%
Joel Lanning run for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 27 Joel Lanning fumbled, recovered by IowStSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+3
98.0%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:3098% → 98%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
98.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
50
+8
98.1%
Corey Coleman run for 8 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+30
98.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 30 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
98.1%
Russell, Seth pass complete to Coleman, Corey for 12 yards to the IOWAST0, PENALTY BAYLOR ineligible downfield on pass (Colbert, Pat) 5 yards to the IOWAST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
98.4%
Shock Linwood run for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.4%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2698% → 98%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
98.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (KD Cannon) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey Coleman BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jay Lee) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:302% → 2%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.3%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
98.3%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
98.3%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+8
98.4%
Colin Downing run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
98.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for 16 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:0498% → 99%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
98.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 27 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.5%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+3
98.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+15
98.5%
Seth Russell run for 15 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
98.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 9 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
98.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.6%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the IowSt 3Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.6%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 6Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Shock Linwood for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.2%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-1
99.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Ryan Reid return for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
13 plays · 49 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
99.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+10
99.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
99.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+11
99.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+4
99.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:251% → 1%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.5%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+42
99.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 42 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.5%
Joshua Thomas run for 7 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
99.5%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15INT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:1899% → 100%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.4%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.5%
Corey Coleman run for 7 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
99.5%
Corey Coleman run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
99.4%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.5%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Brian Peavy return for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.6%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+4
99.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 4 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Ben BoesenSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.7%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-1
99.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Joshua Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.6%
Colin Downing punt for 54 yds, downed at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Gus Penning for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-5
99.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+26
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 26 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 14 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:291% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.5%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.2%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+29
99.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 29 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
99.6%
Mike Warren run for 14 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.6%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
99.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 10 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.4%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.8%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
98.7%
Russell, Seth pass incomplete to Penning, Gus, PENALTY IOWAST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the BAYLOR39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+4
98.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:302% → 1%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
98.5%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
98.6%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 26 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (Corey Coleman) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 12
OWN 16
+7
98.7%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
98.7%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-5
98.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Raaquan Davis) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+18
98.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 18 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:292% → 1%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.5%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
98.5%
Joel Lanning run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-13
98.6%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 13 yards to the IowSt 33 Sam B. Richardson fumbled, forced by Shawn Oakman, recovered by IowSt Oni Omoile , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 21
OWN 33
0
98.8%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
98.8%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
98.5%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.6%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
99.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Ishmael Zamora) to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+3
98.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:421% → 1%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
98.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Justin Chandler for 19 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.8%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
98.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
99.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.1%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
99.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
99.1%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4799% → 99%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 16 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
99.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 10 yds to the IowSt 44 Johnny Jefferson fumbled, forced by Dale Pierson, recovered by IowSt Nigel TribuneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:091% → 4%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 13 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.2%
Mike Warren run for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 8 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
99.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.1%
Warren, Mike rush for 4 yards to the BAYLOR18, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Taiese, Wendell) 10 yards to the BAYLOR32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+21
99.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 21 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.1%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Grant Campbell) to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.1%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q4 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
97.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 9 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.6%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
97.7%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+4
97.6%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+34
98.5%
Chris Callahan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.0%
Trever Ryen run for 2 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-11
98.4%
Joel Lanning sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 23 Joel Lanning fumbled, forced by Jamal Palmer, recovered by Bayl K.J. Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.0%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
99.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
99.0%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 30TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:030% → 2%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 8 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 24 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:47
Joel Lanning pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten PAT MISSED)
-3.4
TD · Q4 0:10
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-1.5
TD · Q3 10:31
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com