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TTU

Texas Tech 30 at Kansas 20

KU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:45 · Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the Kans 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior−41.5Home team on offense−12.5Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:02: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 45 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT BLOCKED) — TTU win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:39: Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman PAT MISSED) — KU win probability +4.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:32: Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK) — KU win probability +6.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:26: Taylor Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK) — KU win probability +23.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Ryan Willis pass intercepted for a TD Jah'Shawn Johnson return for 27 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +19.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 7:36TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49KU 4th & 4 at KU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:36TTU 4th & 7 at KU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03KU 4th & 9 at KU 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:13TTU 4th & 5 at KU 7, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06KU 4th & 3 at KU 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:45TTU 4th & 4 at KU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:20KU 4th & 4 at TTU 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21TTU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00KU 4th & 5 at TTU 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:09TTU 4th & 23 at KU 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:17TTU 4th & 5 at KU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00KU 4th & 4 at TTU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:32KU 4th & 2 at TTU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:26TTU 4th & 14 at TTU 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:20TTU 4th & 15 at KU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:07KU 4th & 6 at KU 41, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:10TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:39KU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:32KU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:26KU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:07TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
3.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+41
3.8%
De'Andre Mann run for 41 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
3.8%
Tre' Parmalee run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-5
3.8%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+5
3.8%
Taylor Cox run for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
3.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+5
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+13
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
50
+8
4.2%
Jakeem Grant run for 8 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
4.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
4.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
4.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Kans 38Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted, touchback. Fish Smithson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
5.7%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to High, JaDeion, PENALTY KU pass interference (Glatczak, M.) 15 yards to the TTU34, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
5.6%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
5.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
5.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
5.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
6.0%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 25 Ryan Willis fumbled,Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+4
6.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
5.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 11 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
6.1%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
6.0%
Taylor Cox run for 6 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
6.1%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+5
6.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Taylor Cox for 5 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
6.0%
Matthew Wyman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:3593% → 92%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
6.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+15
6.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 15 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
6.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Zach Austin, broken up by Daniel WiseSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
6.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 10 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
6.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 8 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+19
6.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 19 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 13 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the Kans 10Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-3
6.6%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Joe Dineen Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 13Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
7.7%
Clayton Hatfield 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+22
7.8%
Clayton Hatfield punt for 65 yds , Ryan Schadler returns for 22 yds to the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:318% → 8%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
7.7%
De'Andre Mann run for 12 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
7.8%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
8.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 9 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
8.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 16 yds Darious Crawley fumbled, forced by J.J. Gaines, recovered by TexTc J.J. GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:2792% → 94%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.7%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
7.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 9 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+27
7.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 27 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
7.4%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+15
7.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Clark Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
6.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 11Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-2
6.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 9Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+3
6.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 3 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
6.3%
Matthew Wyman punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2594% → 94%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+45
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 45 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
6.3%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the Kans 12Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
6.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 5 yds to the Kans 7Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
5.7%
Clayton Hatfield 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.9%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
5.9%
De'Andre Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 32Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
5.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 8 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
6.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
5.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
5.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
5.7%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Anthony Olobia for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+17
6.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 17 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
5.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 9 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-10
5.5%
Stockton, J. rush for 6 yards to the KU34, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TTU holding (Clark, Le'Raven) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 11
50
+7
5.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
5.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+3
5.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the Kans 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 3:427% → 7%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
6.6%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
6.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Taylor Cox for 6 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
6.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
7.0%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive holding (Breiden Fehoko) to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
7.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 9 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+14
7.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 14 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
7.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (Breiden Fehoko) to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
7.2%
De'Andre Mann run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
7.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 2 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem Barbel, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
7.3%
Nick Bartolotta 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:1893% → 96%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
6.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+21
6.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 21 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
6.3%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
6.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
50
+5
6.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 5 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
4.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 45 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 1:025% → 6%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Taylor CoxSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
4.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 14 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
5.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 14 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
5.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 13 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
5.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem BarbelSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
5.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 13 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
6.0%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
5.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Darious CrawleySimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+5
5.6%
Taylor Cox run for 5 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
6.1%
Matthew Wyman 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.8%
Jakeem Grant run for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+7
3.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 7 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-8
3.8%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Daniel Wise for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
4.1%
Taylor Symmank punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
5.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 9 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Dakota Allen) to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.5%
De'Andre Mann run for no gain to the Kans 48Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
5.5%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-6
5.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Branden Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 47 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by TexTc Pete Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:5197% → 97%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
3.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Kans 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
3.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 10 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
3.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+19
3.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 19 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
3.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
3.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-15
3.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jared Kaster) to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 23
OPP 31
0
3.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 23
OPP 31
+48
3.4%
Clayton Hatfield 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:304% → 9%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
4.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
4.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 5 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
4.6%
De'Andre Mann run for 4 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
4.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 44Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
4.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 14 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
4.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
4.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
4.9%
De'Andre Mann run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
5.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 11 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
5.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 8 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
9.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 4:2294% → 96%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.4%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-8
6.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Ben Goodman for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
6.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
5.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
5.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 2 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
5.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
5.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
5.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Zach Austin, broken up by Tevin ShawSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+10
5.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 10 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
5.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 12 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
5.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 6 yds to the Kans 6Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-4
5.4%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 7 DeAndre Washington fumbled, recovered by TexTc DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
5.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Michael GlatczakSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
4.1%
Clayton Hatfield 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:116% → 7%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
6.3%
De'Andre Mann run for 3 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
6.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 8 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
6.4%
De'Andre Mann run for 6 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+10
6.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
6.5%
Taylor Cox run for 1 yd to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
6.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
6.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Kent Taylor, broken up by Jah'Shawn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
6.5%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0096% → 97%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 12 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 6 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
3.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 11 yds to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
3.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 5 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
3.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+9
3.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 9 yds Devin Lauderdale fumbled, forced by Derrick Neal, recovered by Kans Fish Smithson , return for 56 yds to the TexTc 0 KANSAS Penalty, illegal block (Derrick Neal) to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:325% → 11%
Q4 12:04
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
5.2%
De'Andre Mann run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
5.1%
De'Andre Mann run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+25
11.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
10.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 7 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-11
10.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 12 yds to the TexTc 41 TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jared Kaster) to the TexTc 18Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
11.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
11.5%
Michael Barden punt for 37 yds, downed at the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5611% → 36%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
10.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
50
+6
11.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
11.8%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
11.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+8
11.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Darious Crawley for 8 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
12.7%
De'Andre Mann run for 17 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
13.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 9 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
13.0%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
Taylor Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+45
22.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 45 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
17.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
17.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-5
19.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by D.J. Williams and Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
24.4%
Michael Barden punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4027% → 7%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
26.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' ParmaleeSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+11
26.2%
Ryan Willis sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 11 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by Kans De'Andre Mann , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds to the Kans 11Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+27
6.7%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted for a TD Jah'Shawn Johnson return for 27 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 8 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
8.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 4 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Taylor Cox, broken up by Branden JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
7.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Shakiem Barbel, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
7.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 4 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
7.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jeremiah BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
5.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+15
5.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
3.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 3 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
3.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+6
3.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 6 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:26
Taylor Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)
+23.2
TD · Q4 4:07
Ryan Willis pass intercepted for a TD Jah'Shawn Johnson return for 27 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q4 10:32
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com