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TCU

TCU 45 at Iowa State 21

ISU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:25 · Colin Downing punt for 46 yds, downed at the TCU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−37.9Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:49: Mike Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +3.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:55: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Charlie Reid for 14 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:24: Kyle Hicks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +7.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:36: Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:45: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 0 of 3
  1. Q1 12:43ISU 4th & 2 at TCU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02TCU 4th & 6 at ISU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:17TCU 4th & 7 at ISU 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:15ISU 4th & 3 at TCU 45, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−2.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:26ISU 4th & 10 at TCU 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:20ISU 4th & 9 at TCU 23, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:09ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 30, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:54ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:08ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:13TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:38TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:01ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:49ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:55TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:24TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:36TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:45TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3911% → 13%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
10.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 31 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
10.6%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-1
10.7%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-5
11.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
11.2%
Joshua Thomas run for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+21
11.4%
Holden Kramer pass complete to Mitchell Harger for 21 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
11.7%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+7
12.0%
Joshua Thomas run for 7 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:3787% → 88%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
12.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 16 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
12.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
12.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 20 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2913% → 13%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
12.6%
Mike Warren run for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
12.8%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
13.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-5
12.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+2
12.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 2 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
13.1%
Colin Downing punt for 46 yds, downed at the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:4287% → 88%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
13.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 11 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
13.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
13.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+11
13.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 11 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
13.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 34 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
13.2%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
13.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+21
12.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 21 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2813% → 14%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.7%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
14.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 74 yds for a TD IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:4286% → 86%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
13.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 25 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
13.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
14.1%
KaVontae Turpin run for 6 yds to the IowSt 9 KaVontae Turpin fumbled, forced by Nigel Tribune, recovered by IowSt Nigel TribuneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:1315% → 20%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
14.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 9 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+5
15.2%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
15.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+38
15.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 38 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
16.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 7 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+3
17.2%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
17.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
17.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+24
17.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 24 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.4%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:4581% → 84%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
19.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
19.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+40
19.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 40 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
18.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 9 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+6
18.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 6 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
18.8%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
16.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Charlie Reid for 14 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FUMBLE
17 plays · 57 yds · 6:4518% → 25%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.0%
Joshua Thomas run for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
18.7%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
18.7%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
19.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
19.9%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
19.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
21.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 27 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
21.9%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+2
21.5%
Joshua Thomas run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-11
21.2%
Richardson, Sam B. rush for 6 yards to the TCU25, PENALTY IOWAST holding 11 yards to the TCU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 24
OPP 42
+10
21.2%
Richardson, Sam B. pass complete to Lazard, Allen for 11 yards to the TCU31, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
23.5%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
24.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
23.5%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY TCU personal foul 15 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
24.5%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-8
24.7%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 18 Mike Warren fumbled, recovered by TCU Mike TuauaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3180% → 79%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
20.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 13 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
20.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 8 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
19.5%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
19.8%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
21.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0424% → 23%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
23.7%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
23.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
23.3%
Colin Downing punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:5878% → 79%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
21.6%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
21.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+16
22.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 16 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
20.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+20
20.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 20 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
20.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+11
20.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 11 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
20.6%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Doctson, Josh, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference 2 yards to the IOWAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.3%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.6%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
23.4%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 6Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
21.1%
Jaden Oberkrom 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2677% → 85%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
22.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-4
22.4%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+8
24.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 8 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
23.4%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+47
22.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 47 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
21.1%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-6
21.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the IowSt 13 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+10
22.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 10 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
15.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:1715% → 17%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
15.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
16.3%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
16.2%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
17.2%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-3
17.2%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Nick Orr for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 42 Sam B. Richardson fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2885% → 84%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
15.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
15.1%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 2
50
+6
15.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-3
15.3%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
15.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 34 yds, downed at the IowSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:4716% → 16%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
15.6%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+4
15.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Ben Boesen for 4 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+6
14.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
15.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 8 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+21
15.7%
Mike Warren run for 21 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
16.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
17.2%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
17.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for no gain to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
15.8%
Holden Kramer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:3184% → 95%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
15.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
15.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
15.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 11 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
14.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
14.3%
Boykin, Trevone pass complete to Hicks, Kyle for 3 yards to the TCU44, PENALTY IOWAST holding 10 yards to the IOWAST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
13.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
13.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 14 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
13.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+10
13.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 10 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+22
13.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 22 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 3:107% → 6%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Joshua Thomas for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
7.7%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
6.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
6.3%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Montgomery, D'Vario, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
6.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 12 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.0%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
7.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
6.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+11
6.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 11 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
6.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
6.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
6.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 9
OPP 23
-3
5.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Joshua Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 26 IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2795% → 99%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
4.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 20 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
4.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
50
+7
4.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
3.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+2
3.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+42
1.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:322% → 1%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
1.5%
Tyler Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
1.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+1
1.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+21
1.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 21 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
1.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
1.1%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+12
1.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 12 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
1.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-5
1.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
1.2%
Tyler Brown run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
1.2%
Trever Ryen run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-5
1.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:1699% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
0.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
0.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 8 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 5
50
+8
0.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Zach Allen for 8 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
0.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
0.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
0.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+15
0.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:36
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q3 11:24
Kyle Hicks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-7
TD · Q1 1:49
Mike Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com