Try the model
WVU

West Virginia 38 at Baylor 62

BAY
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreWVU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.1BAY 88.0%Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 27 · Q2 1:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:42 · Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+23.3Home team on offense+9.8Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:57: Skyler Howard pass complete to Cody Clay for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +4.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:45: Corey Coleman 33 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:15: Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +7.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:39: Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +6.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:31: Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 52 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WVU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:22BAY 4th & 1 at WVU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:57WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:43BAY 4th & 10 at WVU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:21WVU 4th & 2 at BAY 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:45BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55WVU 4th & 8 at BAY 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42BAY 4th & 4 at WVU 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02WVU 4th & 18 at BAY 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:35WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:45BAY 4th & 3 at WVU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:59BAY 4th & 1 at WVU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40WVU 4th & 6 at BAY 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:48WVU 4th & 7 at BAY 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:02WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 22, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:09BAY 4th & 7 at WVU 35, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:35WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 46, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31BAY 4th & 3 at WVU 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:02BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:45WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:07BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:57WVU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:21BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:45BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:15WVU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:39BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:31BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:53BAY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:54WVU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:21BAY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:05WVU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:4389% → 89%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
88.7%
Shock Linwood run for 15 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
88.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 50 yds to the WVirg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
88.6%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 16Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
88.7%
Seth Russell run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:5011% → 12%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
88.6%
Skyler Howard run for 9 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
88.5%
Wendell Smallwood run for 2 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
88.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:2288% → 89%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
88.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+42
88.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 42 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
88.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dravon Askew-Henry) to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
88.2%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 8Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
88.1%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 5Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
87.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the WVirg 3Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
87.7%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the WVirg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3212% → 12%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
88.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 2 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
88.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-1
88.1%
Skyler Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 26Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
88.2%
Nick O'Toole punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4388% → 88%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
88.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
50
0
88.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
50
-1
88.3%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
88.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
87.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds, downed at the WVirg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1212% → 12%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
87.9%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 13Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
87.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-3
87.9%
Skyler Howard sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 10Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+5
87.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 54 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:0288% → 88%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
88.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
88.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
88.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
88.2%
Seth Russell run for 13 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
88.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
88.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
88.1%
Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:2812% → 17%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
88.0%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
87.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 7 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
87.9%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
87.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
87.7%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+15
87.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 15 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
87.2%
Skyler Howard run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
87.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
87.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+6
87.3%
Rushel Shell run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
86.7%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
87.0%
Rushel Shell run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+29
87.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 29 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Cody Clay for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:2885% → 88%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
84.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+3
84.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+10
84.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
84.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 16 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.8%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+46
84.9%
Seth Russell run for 46 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
88.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3513% → 13%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
50
0
86.7%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
50
+6
86.9%
Wendell Smallwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Reid return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4287% → 87%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
87.2%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
87.4%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+8
87.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+1
87.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
86.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:4113% → 15%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.5%
Skyler Howard run for 2 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
87.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
87.1%
Skyler Howard run for 8 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+7
86.7%
Donte Thomas-Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
86.5%
Donte Thomas-Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 12
50
+47
86.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 47 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
86.0%
Donte Thomas-Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
85.9%
Skyler Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.2%
Skyler Howard run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
86.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
85.3%
Josh Lambert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:0286% → 88%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
86.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
86.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
87.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+6
86.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
87.1%
Seth Russell run for 11 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
87.5%
Seth Russell sacked by Edward Muldrow for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+8
86.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+4
86.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
88.0%
Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:2712% → 12%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
88.2%
Wendell Smallwood run for 12 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+52
87.8%
Wendell Smallwood run for 52 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
85.6%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
85.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
0
86.4%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 24
+6
87.2%
Skyler Howard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
88.1%
Josh Lambert 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.0%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0914% → 13%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
86.3%
Rushel Shell run for 8 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
86.3%
Skyler Howard run for 3 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for no gain to the WVirg 33Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
86.9%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
87.0%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
87.5%
Nick O'Toole punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:4187% → 94%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
87.4%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+18
87.3%
Seth Russell run for 18 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
87.9%
Shock Linwood run for 20 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
88.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
88.0%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+33
94.1%
Corey Coleman 33 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:107% → 15%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
93.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 23Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
93.4%
Wendell Smallwood run for no gain to the WVirg 23Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+15
93.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 15 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.9%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
93.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
92.6%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
92.7%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
85.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2088% → 95%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
87.8%
Seth Russell run for 30 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.8%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
88.4%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
87.7%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
89.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
88.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+36
95.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:556% → 5%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
94.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 9Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 20
OWN 9
0
95.1%
Skyler Howard run for no gain to the WVirg 9Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+5
95.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 5 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+22
95.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 7 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
94.9%
Rushel Shell run for 12 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
94.7%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
50
0
94.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 8
50
+7
94.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Donte Thomas-Williams for 7 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
94.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
95.1%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
98.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 52 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:182% → 1%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.5%
Skyler Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 24Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
98.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to William Crest Jr. for 5 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
98.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
98.6%
Wendell Smallwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
98.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 5 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
98.6%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
98.7%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:4599% → 100%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
99.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 30 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.0%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
99.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 10 yds to the WVirg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 11Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 22Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
50
-1
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+13
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds KD Cannon fumbled, recovered by Bayl KD Cannon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 38Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:010% → 1%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to William Crest Jr. for 8 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-2
99.9%
Skyler Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 38Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+25
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 25 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
99.9%
Skyler Howard run for 17 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:151% → 1%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
William Crest Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
William Crest Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.6%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.6%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
99.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+7
99.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 7 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the WVirg 9Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Trevor Clemons-Valdez for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.7%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the WVirg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:15
Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q3 5:39
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 9:45
Corey Coleman 33 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com