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ISU

Iowa State 31 at Texas Tech 66

TTU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 36 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+23.1Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:18: Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +5.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:21: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 49 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +7.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:42: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 37 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +4.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:30: Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +5.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:37: Justin Stockton run for 54 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:27TTU 4th & 6 at ISU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48ISU 4th & 3 at TTU 22, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:02ISU 4th & 3 at TTU 3, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 42, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54TTU 4th & 10 at ISU 44, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:25ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:35ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:44TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:03ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:48TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:18ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:02TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:21TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:42TTU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:30ISU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:37TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:54TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:35TTU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:56TTU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:59ISU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:3380% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
80.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
80.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
80.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
80.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
80.0%
Justin Stockton run for 23 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
80.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+2
80.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
79.4%
Clayton Hatfield 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Tevin Madison return for no gain to the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:3780% → 80%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
79.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+22
79.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 22 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4120% → 22%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
79.8%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
79.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+6
79.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
79.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
79.6%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
79.6%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
79.6%
Trever Ryen run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+33
77.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
80.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 75 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
79.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 2 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
79.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.1%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
80.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 5 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
80.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
80.2%
Cameron Batson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
80.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-4
80.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
80.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+9
79.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 47 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 9 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2620% → 25%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
79.8%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
79.8%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+7
79.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 7 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
79.5%
Joel Lanning run for 10 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
79.3%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-10
78.9%
Lanning, Joel rush for 13 yards to the TTU21 (Banks, Paul), PENALTY ISU holding (Campos, Jake) 10 yards to the TTU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
79.5%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
79.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+36
79.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 36 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1676% → 81%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.3%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
76.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 6 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
76.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 9 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
77.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
77.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
77.3%
Justin Stockton run for 12 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
77.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
81.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:1420% → 20%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
80.5%
Mike Warren run for 46 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
78.7%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
78.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
79.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
79.9%
Cole Netten 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:2781% → 89%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
80.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 5 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
80.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 10 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Zach AustinSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-15
81.0%
Washington, De. rush for loss of 2 yards to the TTU36 (Harris, Jordan), PENALTY TTU face mask (Kaster, Jared) 15 yards to the TTU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 25
OWN 23
-5
80.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 30
OWN 18
0
80.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 30
OWN 18
+31
79.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 31 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
81.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
89.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 49 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
87.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.2%
Sam B. Richardson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
87.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+4
87.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 4 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-2
87.7%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Gary Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+6
87.9%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 6 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:1789% → 95%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
89.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 8 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-2
89.4%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+15
89.0%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Brown, Tony, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Wiltz, Jomal) 15 yards to the TTU45, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 7 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+10
89.6%
Justin Stockton run for 10 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
89.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
89.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+37
94.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 37 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:127% → 15%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
93.4%
Mike Warren run for 51 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
92.3%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+22
91.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.8%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15END OF HALF
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
91.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 9 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+4
91.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 4 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
91.1%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Demond Tucker for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 17 TEXAS TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Patrick Mahomes) to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+13
91.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
90.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
91.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
91.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+12
90.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 12 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
91.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald Davis, broken up by Jarnor JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.2%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
89.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.4%
Colin Downing punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+16
89.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 16 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
90.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
89.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Jarnor JonesSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+33
88.7%
Taylor Symmank punt for 49 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 33 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:5110% → 12%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
90.1%
Mike Warren run for 17 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
89.6%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
89.5%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
89.0%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
88.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+11
89.4%
Jauan Wesley run for 11 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.7%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
88.7%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the TexTc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
88.7%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
88.7%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 3Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan Wesley, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q3 6:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
87.6%
Cole Netten 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:2591% → 98%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
90.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for no gain to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+21
90.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 21 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
91.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
91.4%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+54
97.6%
Justin Stockton run for 54 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.2%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
97.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
97.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted J.J. Gaines return for 13 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1998% → 100%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
97.9%
Washington, De. rush for 21 yards to the ISU8 (Pierson, Dale), PENALTY TTU holding (Brown, Baylen) 10 yards to the ISU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 20
OPP 39
0
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony Brown TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+11
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Keke Coutee for 11 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+10
97.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 10 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
97.9%
Jakeem Grant run for 6 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 6 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the IowSt 3Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 10 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
99.8%
Thomas, Joshua rush for 2 yards to the ISU45 (Robertson, Pete), PENALTY ISU illegal block (Omoile, Oni) 15 yards to the ISU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+3
99.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 22
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Joshua Thomas, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 22
OWN 31
+11
99.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted J.J. Gaines return for no gain to the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
99.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Stockton) to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 10 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brad PearsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 38 yds, downed at the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+9
99.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-1
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+31
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 31 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Paul BanksSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
Joel Lanning sacked by Gary Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Quinton White for 20 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 21 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete, broken up by Malik JenkinsSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Colin Downing punt for 61 yds, downed at the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+18
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tony Brown for 18 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
Quinton White run for 1 yd to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 8 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Quinton White run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 53 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 47 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Darius Lee-Campbell for 8 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense (Keland McElrath) to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Francis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Payne Sullins run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Caleb Woodward run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:21
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 49 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 3:37
Justin Stockton run for 54 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 1:30
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com