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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:38 · Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Duke Thomas at the Texas 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 8:18: Nick Rose 27 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +7.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:16: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +18.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:16: Nick Hodgson kickoff for 72 yds , Kris Boyd return for 36 yds to the Texas 44 — TEX win probability +8.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:52: Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +10.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:00: Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +19.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 14:10OU 4th & 8 at OU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.5%average punt
- Q1 12:49TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 20, tiedClose callPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it21.1%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:17OU 4th & 13 at OU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it77.9%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%average punt
- Q1 2:38OU 4th & 14 at OU 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it64.6%−1.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.0%average punt
- Q2 12:24OU 4th & 14 at OU 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it56.3%−2.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.9%average punt
- Q2 11:08TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it43.6%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q2 6:05OU 4th & 4 at TEX 4, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call49.1%−0.693% to makePunt41.8%−7.9average punt
- Q2 3:16OU 4th & 12 at TEX 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q3 8:18TEX 4th & 6 at OU 9, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.533% to convertField goalTheir call67.3%89% to makePunt58.0%−9.3average punt
- Q3 3:16TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it63.9%−2.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.0%average punt
- Q4 9:45OU 4th & 8 at TEX 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%35% to convertField goal9.8%−0.340% to makePunt9.1%−1.0average punt
- Q4 6:05TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it83.1%−3.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:52TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.6%97% to makeGo for two25.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:37TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.8%97% to makeGo for two30.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:16OU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.5%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:52TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:00OU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4484% → 84%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.7%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Miller, A.D., PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Bonney, John) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
16.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Duke Thomas at the Texas 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2116% → 17%
OUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3284% → 83%
TEXDrive 4TD9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2517% → 22%
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+9
18.7%
Johnson, Marcus pass pass intercepted by Sanchez, Zack at the OKLAHOMA19, Sanchez, Zack return 0 yards to the OKLAHOMA19, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Sanchez, Zack) 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
21.5%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD10 plays · 41 yds · 2:0722% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5974% → 70%
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+12
26.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 12 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
28.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Hassan Ridgeway for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
30.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Duke Thomas at the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4732% → 35%
Q2 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.2%
Michael Dickson punt for a loss of 20 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2766% → 61%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
34.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 9 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+1
35.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 1 yd to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-4
36.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 29Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+4
37.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 4 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
39.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Duke Thomas at the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1640% → 41%
Q2 11:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0359% → 57%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
40.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 10 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+9
42.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
42.1%
Mayfield, Baker pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TEXAS45 (Cottrell, Bryce), PENALTY TEXAS holding (Bonney, John) 10 yards to the TEXAS29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2845% → 46%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
44.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for no gain to the Texas 25 TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Armanti Foreman) to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Sterling Shepard returns for 2 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2153% → 48%
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-6
47.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Paul Boyette Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0649% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14FG16 plays · 62 yds · 6:3454% → 72%
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
56.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
58.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 9 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+6
61.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 6 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD9 plays · 87 yds · 3:0230% → 50%
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+17
72.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 17 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
71.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 8 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+50
71.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 50 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5165% → 62%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
65.2%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Eric Striker for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+2
63.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
62.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5640% → 38%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
59.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 12 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+12
57.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 12 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
62.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Texas 47 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Orlando Brown) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD6 plays · 89 yds · 1:5771% → 91%
Q4 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5212% → 28%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
87.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 5 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
88.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
90.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 2 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+22
91.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 22 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5585% → 87%
Q4 6:05
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+7
86.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds , Michiah Quick returns for 7 yds to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · -8 yds · 2:3215% → 11%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+12
83.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 12 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
83.2%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+4
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 4 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-17
87.4%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Naashon Hughes and Poona Ford for a loss of 17 yards to the Okla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22END OF GAME10 plays · 39 yds · 3:1893% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:00
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 5:16
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-18
TD · Q4 13:52
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+10.6