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TCU

TCU 52 at Kansas State 45

KSU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:30 · Ethan Perry punt for 49 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior−23.3Home team on offense−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:14: Aaron Green run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +16.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 7:55: Trevone Boykin run for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +25.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:07: Trevone Boykin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trevone Boykin pass to Josh Doctson for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +44.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:47: Jack Cantele 37 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +28.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 55 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +38.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:41KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:30TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:32TCU 4th & 12 at KSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:02TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:23KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:14KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:43KSU 4th & 9 at TCU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:07TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:51KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:47KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−4.9
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−27.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:42TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:39KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:46TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:51KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:56KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:56KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:22KSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:16TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:14TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:21KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:55TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:07TCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.2%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:10TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
22.9%
Aaron Green run for 86 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3623% → 26%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
23.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kyle Klein for 9 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
23.2%
Glenn Gronkowski run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.4%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
23.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kyle Klein for 10 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
23.6%
Joe Hubener run for 17 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
23.9%
Joe Hubener run for 8 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+10
24.1%
Joe Hubener run for 10 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.3%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
24.5%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 2 yards to the TCU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q1 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.1%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:3575% → 77%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
25.2%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
25.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
25.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
25.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
25.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 4 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
23.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 32 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:4124% → 24%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
24.3%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
24.2%
Dominique Heath run for 8 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Kyle KleinSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
24.3%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
24.2%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Kyle KleinSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0675% → 75%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
24.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 11 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
24.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 17 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
24.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
24.3%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-10
24.5%
Boykin, Trevone rush for 5 yards to the TCU42, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
25.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
25.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 49 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 5:3125% → 34%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
24.8%
Joe Hubener run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+13
24.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kyle Klein for 13 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
25.0%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+25
24.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kyle Klein for 25 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
26.5%
Justin Silmon run for 10 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
27.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 12 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
27.5%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
34.0%
Joe Hubener run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:0069% → 70%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
30.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 29 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
29.3%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Doctson, Josh, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference 15 yards to the KANSASST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
28.9%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
29.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
30.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
30.0%
Jaden Oberkrom 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2430% → 42%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
29.7%
Joe Hubener sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
29.7%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the KANSASST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
30.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Zach Reuter for 9 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
32.1%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 7 yards to the TCU49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.0%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
31.9%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+10
31.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
32.8%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
32.3%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
32.4%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
41.9%
Charles Jones run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3442% → 53%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
42.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 13 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
42.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
42.9%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
42.8%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 2 yards to the TCU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
43.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.3%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5047% → 44%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
52.9%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+3
54.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
54.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
55.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
56.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:3355% → 70%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
55.3%
Joe Hubener run for 26 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
56.1%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
57.8%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+7
58.9%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.9%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.9%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.0%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:0831% → 33%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
68.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 20 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
67.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 19 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13INT TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3771% → 63%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Cody SmallSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
70.7%
Joe Hubener run for 23 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
78.3%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+60
63.3%
Joe Hubener pass intercepted for a TD Derrick Kindred return for 60 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:4762% → 62%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
59.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 17 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
63.1%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
64.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Zach ReuterSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
63.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
62.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:5638% → 56%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
62.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+4
62.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
63.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 20 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
62.0%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.6%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
62.2%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+24
63.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 24 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
61.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
44.4%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4654% → 52%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.4%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
54.4%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
53.1%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2749% → 48%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.9%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
52.0%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Elijah Lee return for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4860% → 55%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.8%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
59.5%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
58.1%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Kyle KleinSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
55.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 31 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3147% → 43%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
53.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 11 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
53.1%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 21 Trevone Boykin fumbled, recovered by TCU Trevone BoykinSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
54.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
54.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+18
56.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 18 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:0963% → 85%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.2%
Dominique Heath run for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
63.4%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
64.5%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
64.8%
Charles Jones run for 19 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
65.8%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
66.5%
Justin Silmon run for 6 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
65.3%
Joe Hubener run for 5 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.5%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.0%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0521% → 44%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 9 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
77.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+13
79.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 13 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.7%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
82.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 10 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
80.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+13
82.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
81.7%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
82.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for no gain to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
56.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5777% → 79%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Zach ReuterSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
79.5%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
78.6%
Nick Walsh punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3533% → 82%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.9%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
22.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trevone Boykin pass to Josh Doctson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
18.4%
TCU Penalty, False Start (KaVontae Turpin) to the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1133% → 56%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 15 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
35.6%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+15
36.9%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
38.9%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+8
38.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 8 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
41.5%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-4
41.8%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
35.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 9 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
56.3%
Jack Cantele 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:3057% → 96%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
43.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+55
4.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 55 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · -20 yds · 0:119% → 9%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.4%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-20
9.2%
Joe Hubener sacked by Montrel Wilson for a loss of 20 yards to the KanSt 5 Joe Hubener fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:1596% → 96%
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:07
Trevone Boykin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trevone Boykin pass to Josh Doctson for Two-Point Conversion)
-44.4
TD · Q4 1:10
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 55 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-38.7
FG · Q4 1:47
Jack Cantele 37 yd FG GOOD
+28.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com