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TTU

Texas Tech 35 at Baylor 63

BAY
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:07 · Seth Russell pass intercepted J.J. Gaines return for no gain to the TexTc 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+27.2Pregame prior+18.8Score differential+19.9Blowout margin+7.6Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:23: Seth Russell 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +3.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:15: Shock Linwood 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +4.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:04: Tony Brown 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +5.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:41: Seth Russell 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:49: Patrick Mahomes 25 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +4.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:39TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:16TTU 4th & 6 at BAY 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:51TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:22BAY 4th & 16 at TTU 16, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:07BAY 4th & 4 at TTU 37, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:31TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:24BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:35TTU 4th & 17 at BAY 43, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:12BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 27, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:32TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46TTU 4th & 4 at BAY 19, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:35BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 22, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:55BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:42TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:00BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:45BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:16TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 1:23BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 11:15BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 8:22BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 4:04TTU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 1:41BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 12:49TTU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 8:25BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 11:57BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 8:34TTU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 0:3584% → 84%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
84.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 1 yd to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
84.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+79
84.3%
Shock Linwood 79 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:4816% → 16%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
84.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
84.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+55
83.7%
Zach Austin 55 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3284% → 84%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.7%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
83.6%
Corey Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+40
83.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 40 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
83.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+28
84.3%
KD Cannon 28 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:1416% → 16%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
84.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Kaster) to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 20
OWN 18
0
84.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+18
84.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 18 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
83.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+10
83.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 10 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
83.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 5 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
83.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
83.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Alfredo Morales) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
83.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 36 yds , Orion Stewart returns for no gain to the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 2:4584% → 86%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
83.8%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+10
83.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
83.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
83.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
83.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
83.9%
Seth Russell run for 24 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
84.2%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
84.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
84.2%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
84.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Gus PenningSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
84.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
86.4%
Corey Coleman 24 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:1814% → 17%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
85.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
85.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+16
85.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 16 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
86.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
85.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+37
83.1%
Cameron Batson 37 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 0:3684% → 88%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+87
83.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 87 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
Seth Russell 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2314% → 14%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.3%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Zach AustinSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.5%
Taylor Symmank punt for 60 yds , Corey Coleman returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 20 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4787% → 87%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
87.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-3
87.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+10
86.9%
Seth Russell run for 10 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 3
OWN 12
-6
86.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 47 yds , Cameron Batson returns for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4814% → 14%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-4
86.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 6 yds to the TexTc 44 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
86.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 11 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
86.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 13 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
86.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41 DeAndre Washington fumbled, forced by Orion Stewart, recovered by Bayl Orion StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:2488% → 93%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
88.2%
Shock Linwood run for 38 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
88.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Gus Penning for 13 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.0%
Shock Linwood 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:378% → 7%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
92.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Kaster) to the TexTc 15Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-2
92.4%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 13Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
92.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 14 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0894% → 97%
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+6
94.0%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+6
94.1%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
94.1%
Corey Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
96.7%
Corey Coleman 16 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 3:573% → 7%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
97.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
97.4%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
97.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 7 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
97.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 7 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
97.4%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
97.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 25
OPP 37
0
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Keke Coutee for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 25
OPP 37
0
98.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 25
OPP 37
+17
98.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 17 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+10
97.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
98.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
97.9%
Quinton White run for 1 yd to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
98.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
93.5%
Tony Brown 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:1795% → 99%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
95.3%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+26
95.5%
Seth Russell run for 26 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
95.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
95.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+23
95.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 23 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
95.7%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the TexTc 5Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Seth Russell 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds Tony Brown fumbled, forced by Travon Blanchard, recovered by Bayl Chance WazSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
98.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-2
98.7%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
98.7%
Seth Russell pass intercepted J.J. Gaines return for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:112% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
98.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+16
95.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 16 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
92.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 5 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Zach Austin for 10 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 7 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Keke Coutee for 3 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
94.7%
Patrick Mahomes 25 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1696% → 100%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.2%
Shock Linwood run for 17 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.4%
Corey Coleman run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
96.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
96.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
96.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
96.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
96.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
96.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.9%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
97.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Johnny Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+34
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 34 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Taylor Symmank punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+5
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+8
99.5%
Corey Coleman run for 8 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+34
99.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 34 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
99.5%
Jakeem Grant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-10
99.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 23
OPP 49
+9
99.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+2
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 12
OPP 38
-5
99.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Travon Blanchard return for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+4
99.7%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+8
99.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 61 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 35 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+2
99.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 13
OWN 7
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Zach AustinSimilar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+26
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 26 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 7 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+19
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 19 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Corey Coleman 16 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Zach Austin for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Zach Austin for 2 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+28
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Cameron Batson for 28 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Jonathan Giles 13 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-8
99.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 56 yds , Cameron Batson returns for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 24 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (2 Yards) to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 76 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
99.9%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+4
99.9%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Zach Austin for 5 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-2
99.9%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+51
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tony Brown for 51 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for no gain to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+26
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 26 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+11
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:04
Tony Brown 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
-5.3
TD · Q2 11:15
Shock Linwood 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
+4.5
TD · Q3 12:49
Patrick Mahomes 25 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com