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TEX

Texas 7 at TCU 50

TCU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:50 · Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+36.2Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+1.6Blowout margin−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:35: KaVontae Turpin 13 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:48: Josh Doctson 15 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +0.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:01: KaVontae Turpin 49 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:26: Josh Doctson 29 Yd pass from Shaun Nixon (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +2.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:48: KaVontae Turpin 50 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 14:12TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 37, up 16
    Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:53TEX 4th & 28 at TEX 11, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:11TEX 4th & 9 at TCU 21, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:08TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 49, up 30
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:43TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 20, down 30
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:36TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 48, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:48TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:24TEX 4th & 7 at TCU 22, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:02TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 22, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:21TEX 4th & 6 at TCU 47, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:24TCU 4th & 3 at TEX 47, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:12TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 14, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:25TCU 4th & 5 at TEX 5, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:46TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 24, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:31TCU 4th & 2 at TEX 24, up 47
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:41TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 41, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:40TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 49, up 50
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:35TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:48TCU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:01TCU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:26TCU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:48TCU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:14TCU Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:14TEX Touchdown, down 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3790% → 90%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
89.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
89.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-3
89.6%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
89.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 38 yds , Daje Johnson returns for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2811% → 11%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Jerrod Heard run for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
89.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 5 yds Daje Johnson fumbled, forced by Derrick Kindred, recovered by TCU Nick OrrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:5389% → 90%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
89.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 13 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
89.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Holton Hill) to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
89.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
89.5%
KaVontae Turpin 13 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4SF
5 plays · -25 yds · 0:5211% → 11%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.3%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.3%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
89.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-24
89.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:3889% → 90%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
50
+13
89.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
89.3%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
89.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 7 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
89.3%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.1%
Josh Doctson 15 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4710% → 10%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0190% → 90%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
90.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
90.3%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
90.2%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5710% → 10%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
89.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 17 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
89.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
89.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
89.4%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
89.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:3891% → 92%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.5%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
90.6%
Aaron Green run for 12 yds to the Texas 49 Aaron Green fumbled, forced by Charles Omenihu, recovered by TCU Aaron Green for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
92.1%
KaVontae Turpin 49 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:548% → 7%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
92.1%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
92.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.0%
Jerrod Heard run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-13
92.6%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Montrel Wilson for a loss of 13 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 23
OWN 16
-5
92.7%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Chris Bradley for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 28
OWN 11
+4
92.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds for a 1ST down , KaVontae Turpin returns for 0 yds to the TCU 48 KaVontae Turpin fumbled, recovered by TCU Ridwan Issahaku for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11DOWNS TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2293% → 96%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
93.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 14 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.5%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
93.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+7
93.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Tony James for 7 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
93.8%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
96.2%
Josh Doctson 29 Yd pass from Shaun Nixon (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:044% → 3%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 15 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
95.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
95.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
96.1%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+22
96.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 22 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
96.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
96.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
97.0%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
97.0%
Nick Rose 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5897% → 97%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+22
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 22 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
97.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for 6 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
97.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Duke Thomas at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:173% → 3%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
97.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
97.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
97.4%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
97.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
96.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 48 yds, downed at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16MISSED FG
21 plays · 74 yds · 7:022% → 2%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
97.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 3Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+5
97.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+15
97.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 15 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
97.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+5
97.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
97.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 7 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.8%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 7
50
+2
97.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+10
98.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.5%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
98.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Taylor Doyle) to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+12
98.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 12 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
97.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
98.5%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-5
98.5%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
98.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
98.0%
Nick Rose 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
50
0
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
50
+50
99.2%
KaVontae Turpin 50 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 6 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Mitchell BeckerSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.2%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Davion Pierson for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 57 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
99.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 24 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
99.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 30 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.4%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
99.5%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.5%
KaVontae Turpin 12 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:421% → 0%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.5%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
99.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 9 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+8
99.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 8 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
99.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 17 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
99.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.5%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.6%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+16
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 16 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.7%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 39 yds, downed at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.8%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+4
99.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Tony James for 13 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Tony JamesSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 5 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
99.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+10
99.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 10 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-8
99.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Texas 17 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 18
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+8
99.8%
KaVontae Turpin run for 8 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 10 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Tony JamesSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q3 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.9%
Jaden Oberkrom 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 14 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Dominic Merka for 15 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Trey Elliott) to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Preston MillerSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Duke Thomas) to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
99.9%
Jaden Oberkrom 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
100.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 6 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
100.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 15 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+51
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 36 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
100.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (DeAndre McNeal) to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+6
100.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+15
100.0%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Corry O'Meally) to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Lorenzo Joe 21 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30END OF GAME
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 19 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
100.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 7 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 5 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
100.0%
Stacy Boyd run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
100.0%
Stacy Boyd run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:26
Josh Doctson 29 Yd pass from Shaun Nixon (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)
+2.3
TD · Q1 5:01
KaVontae Turpin 49 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q1 9:48
Josh Doctson 15 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com