Try the model
WVU

West Virginia 24 at Oklahoma 44

OU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreWVU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:32 · Austin Seibert punt for 58 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 6 yds to the WVirg 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+21.5Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:16: Joe Mixon run for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:40: Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +9.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:57: Josh Lambert 23 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +5.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:58: Skyler Howard run for 50 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +17.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:13: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +17.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WVU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:09WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14OU 4th & 13 at OU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32OU 4th & 10 at OU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:16WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:18OU 4th & 8 at WVU 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:13WVU 4th & 22 at WVU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:00OU 4th & 7 at WVU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:37WVU 4th & 14 at WVU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:56OU 4th & 9 at OU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:51WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:57WVU 4th & 5 at OU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:43OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:34OU 4th & 8 at WVU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:58WVU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:43WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:06OU 4th & 16 at WVU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:12OU 4th & 8 at WVU 14, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:45OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:04OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:16OU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:40WVU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:58WVU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:13OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WVUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4425% → 25%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Devonte Mathis for 9 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Devonte MathisSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
75.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 36Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
75.0%
Skyler Howard run for 7 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
74.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4675% → 74%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
74.9%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+19
74.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 19 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
74.9%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
74.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jarvis BaxterSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-4
74.6%
Baker Mayfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+51
74.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 51 yds , KJ Dillon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1526% → 26%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
74.4%
Skyler Howard run for 5 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+18
74.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 18 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
74.1%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
74.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
74.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+9
74.4%
Nick O'Toole punt for 56 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 9 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:5374% → 76%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
74.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 34 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
74.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 23 yds to the WVirg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
76.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:5824% → 25%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for 5 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
75.6%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
75.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 6 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
75.1%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
75.1%
Skyler Howard run for 6 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
75.1%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
74.8%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Jordan Thomas return for 23 yds to the Okla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3676% → 76%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.2%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
76.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
75.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+6
75.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 58 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 6 yds to the WVirg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5424% → 24%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
75.9%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
75.9%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-6
76.3%
Skyler Howard sacked by Steven Parker for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 8Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+27
76.5%
Nick O'Toole punt for 60 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 27 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2677% → 76%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
76.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the WVirg 32 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dede Westbrook) to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+4
76.5%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+4
76.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
75.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:0524% → 30%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+25
75.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for 10 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
75.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 5 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
74.7%
Skyler Howard run for no gain to the Okla 44 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Eric Striker) to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
74.5%
Rushel Shell run for 15 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
73.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Okla 21Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+10
73.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Tapper) to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
73.8%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
73.8%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the Okla 5Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
69.6%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:2972% → 77%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
71.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 42 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
73.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 5 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
73.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+28
76.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 1:4724% → 23%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
75.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the WVirg 17Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-12
75.8%
Skyler Howard sacked by Eric Striker for a loss of 12 yards to the WVirg 5Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 21
OWN 5
-2
76.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-2 Yards) to the WVirg 3Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 23
OWN 3
+5
76.6%
Wendell Smallwood run for 5 yds to the WVirg 8Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 18
OWN 8
-4
76.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the WVirg 4Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 22
OWN 4
0
76.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0777% → 77%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
77.4%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+3
76.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+5
76.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+17
76.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 17 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
77.9%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
77.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery MeadSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
77.4%
Austin Seibert 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:1422% → 20%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
78.2%
Rushel Shell run for no gain to the WVirg 6Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
78.6%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 8Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+14
79.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Devonte Mathis for 14 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
78.3%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the WVirg 23Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
78.5%
Wendell Smallwood run for 5 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-15
78.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Devonte Mathis) to the WVirg 13Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+20
79.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 20 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
78.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-2
78.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
79.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 54 yds, downed at the Okla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:0479% → 89%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.9%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
78.8%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
79.7%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+16
80.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 16 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
81.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 11 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.1%
Joe Mixon run for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:0913% → 13%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
86.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 14 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
86.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 3 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
86.3%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the WVirg 47Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
86.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
87.3%
Nick O'Toole punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.5%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3988% → 88%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
88.4%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
88.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+1
87.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 1 yd to the WVirg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 4:0012% → 22%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.5%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
88.9%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+4
89.0%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
89.0%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+21
89.4%
Wendell Smallwood run for 21 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.4%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
88.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for 11 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
87.6%
Wendell Smallwood run for 9 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
87.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 6 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
86.5%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-2
86.6%
Skyler Howard sacked by Ahmad Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 12Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+11
87.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 11 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
81.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 18 yds Dede Westbrook fumbled, forced by Daryl Worley, recovered by WVirg Nick KwiatkoskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5821% → 26%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
79.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 34 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.8%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the Okla 4Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
77.9%
Skyler Howard sacked by Zack Sanchez and Dominique Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 11Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
79.8%
Wendell Smallwood run for 6 yds to the Okla 5Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
74.5%
Josh Lambert 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4780% → 78%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
80.0%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Shaq Petteway for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 18Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
79.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gary Jennings at the WVirg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · -19 yds · 1:0524% → 23%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
75.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the WVirg 19Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
76.7%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
76.1%
Rushel Shell run for no gain to the WVirg 26Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
77.3%
Skyler Howard sacked by Matt Dimon for a loss of 11 yards to the WVirg 7 Skyler Howard fumbled, forced by Matt Dimon, recovered by Okla D.J. Ward , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3383% → 85%
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.9%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the WVirg 7Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
83.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the WVirg 3Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
82.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Nick Kwiatkoski and Noble Nwachukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 8Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
85.2%
Austin Seibert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1216% → 32%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
84.3%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
84.5%
Wendell Smallwood run for no gain to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
85.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 2
50
+50
67.7%
Skyler Howard run for 50 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 0:2769% → 87%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
68.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 12 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
69.4%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
87.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1714% → 11%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 9 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-13
85.1%
Skyler Howard sacked by Jordan Evans for a loss of 13 yards to the WVirg 33Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-10
88.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marquis Lucas) to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 24
OWN 23
+14
88.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 14 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Nick O'Toole punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0188% → 89%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
87.9%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-5
88.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Jared Barber and Nick Kwiatkoski for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+18
87.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Xavier Preston) to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
89.2%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
89.3%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Karl Joseph return for 7 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28FUMBLE TD
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:2314% → 4%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for no gain to the WVirg 47Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
88.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 8 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+10
87.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
85.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
50
-5
87.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 45Similar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+41
96.3%
Skyler Howard sacked by Eric Striker for a loss of 4 yards Skyler Howard fumbled, forced by Eric Striker, recovered by Okla Jordan Evans , return for 0 yards , return for 41 yds, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:014% → 4%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 20Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
96.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
96.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 12 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+38
96.4%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Jordan Thomas return for 38 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3998% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.7%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the WVirg 18Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-8
98.1%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Karl Joseph for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+44
99.5%
Austin Seibert 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 31INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.3%
Wendell Smallwood run for 17 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.3%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+33
99.3%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Ahmad Thomas return for 33 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.7%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
99.7%
Samaje Perine run for 10 yds to the WVirg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
99.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 21Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+5
99.8%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+3
99.8%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.5%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
99.5%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:58
Skyler Howard run for 50 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q3 0:13
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 9:40
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com