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KU

Kansas 13 at Iowa State 38

ISU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:58 · Eric Kahn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense+7.9Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.5Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:40: Sam B. Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +4.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +6.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:47: Mike Warren run for 62 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:36: Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta PAT MISSED) — KU win probability +2.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:15: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:12KU 4th & 6 at ISU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:43ISU 4th & 6 at KU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43KU 4th & 14 at KU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54ISU 4th & 2 at KU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48KU 4th & 8 at KU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16KU 4th & 3 at ISU 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.7
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:08ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:36KU 4th & 7 at KU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:58KU 4th & 17 at KU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:57KU 4th & 27 at KU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:43KU 4th & 6 at ISU 45, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:59ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:10KU 4th & 19 at KU 12, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:29KU 4th & 14 at ISU 27, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:47ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 29, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:57KU 4th & 7 at ISU 41, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:40ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:47ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:36KU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:15ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:30KU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:34ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:4815% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 11 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 6 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Jarnor JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+7
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 7 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
85.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
85.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Darious Crawley for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
85.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
85.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-5
85.3%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+44
84.1%
Nick Bartolotta 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:2984% → 83%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
84.2%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
84.3%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
84.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
84.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 4 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
84.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+28
84.5%
Mike Warren run for 28 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
84.5%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+5
84.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 5 yds to the Kans 10Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
84.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
83.0%
Cole Netten 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.7%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
82.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-6
82.9%
Montell Cozart sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
83.1%
Eric Kahn punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2883% → 82%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
82.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
82.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for 2 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
82.8%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
82.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 12 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
83.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Ben Boesen for 7 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
82.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
82.0%
Cole Netten 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
82.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 8 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
81.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 5 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler PatrickSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
82.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' ParmaleeSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
82.5%
Eric Kahn punt for 32 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 8 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1382% → 81%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
81.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for 6 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-11
82.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
80.6%
Colin Downing punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5219% → 20%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 9 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
80.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
80.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 5 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+18
80.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 18 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ke'aun KinnerSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
80.1%
Ryan Schadler run for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
80.2%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
80.2%
Eric Kahn punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.6%
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
80.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
80.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Colin Downing punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
79.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-3
78.8%
Montell Cozart sacked by Demond Tucker and Qujuan Floyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
79.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
80.2%
Eric Kahn punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:3381% → 86%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
80.9%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
81.5%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
81.5%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+30
81.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Justin Chandler for 30 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
82.2%
Joel Lanning run for 15 yds to the Kans 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 14 yds · 3:3815% → 14%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
85.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
84.9%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
85.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
85.0%
Montell Cozart run for no gain to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
85.2%
Montell Cozart run for 6 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
85.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 5 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
84.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-5
85.0%
Taylor Martin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 32Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 16
OWN 32
-5
85.6%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 21
OWN 27
+4
86.0%
Taylor Martin run for 4 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
86.1%
Eric Kahn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:1985% → 92%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
84.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+3
84.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 3 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+19
84.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 19 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
85.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 33 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
86.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
86.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
85.5%
KANSAS Penalty, offside defense (Joe Dineen Jr.) to the Kans 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
90.5%
Taylor Martin run for 6 yds to the Kans 17 Taylor Martin fumbled, forced by Levi Peters,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.2%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
91.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Ben Boesen for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
90.9%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Marcquis Roberts for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.5%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds, downed at the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.4%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
91.5%
De'Andre Mann run for 1 yd to the Kans 34Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+14
91.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 14 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
91.1%
Steven Sims Jr. run for a loss of 9 yards to the Kans 39Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+2
91.9%
Montell Cozart run for 2 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 17
OWN 41
-10
92.0%
Montell Cozart sacked by Jhaustin Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 27
OWN 31
0
92.1%
Eric Kahn punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
97.0%
Mike Warren run for 62 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
96.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Derrick Neal for 4 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
96.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 5 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
96.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 6 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
96.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 12 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.6%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
96.6%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
96.6%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr., broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Eric Kahn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
97.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
97.1%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
97.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for no gain to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
97.0%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
94.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2196% → 99%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.5%
Mike Warren run for 11 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
95.7%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
95.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
95.8%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+20
95.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 20 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
95.8%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the Kans 13Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.8%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Taylor MartinSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-9
98.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 9 yards to the Kans 12Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 19
OWN 12
0
98.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Taylor MartinSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
98.6%
Eric Kahn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22INT TD
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4999% → 97%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 7 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
99.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 8 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.3%
Richardson, Sam B. pass complete to Warren, Mike for 18 yards to the KU12, out-of-bounds (Goodman,Ben), PENALTY ISU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the KU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+19
99.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 19 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.4%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-12
99.4%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Chevy Graham for a loss of 12 yards to the Kans 24Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+83
97.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted for a TD Marcquis Roberts return for 83 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5097% → 100%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
97.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
97.4%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
97.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 41 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler PatrickSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-10
99.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Derrick Neal for 2 yds to the Kans 23 KANSAS Penalty, illegal block (Ben Johnson) to the Kans 11Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+5
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 5 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+38
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 38 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
99.2%
Taylor Martin run for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-10
99.2%
Willis,Ryan rush for 13 yards to the ISU29 (Aka, Pierre;Northrup, Reggan), PENALTY KU holding (Mazyck,Larry) 10 yards to the KU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+29
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 29 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-10
99.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+6
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 6 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 14
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Kamari Cotton-MoyaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton Bundrage, broken up by Marnez OgletreeSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.7%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for no gain to the Kans 26 Tre' Parmalee fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jake RhoadsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-5
99.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Jake Campos) to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Greg Allen return for 13 yds to the Kans 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
99.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 14 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.7%
Ryan Schadler run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete, broken up by J.D. WaggonerSimilar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for 8 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for 8 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for 2 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
99.9%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for 9 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
99.9%
Mitchell Harger run for 2 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q3 9:47
Mike Warren run for 62 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q2 5:40
Sam B. Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com