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TCU

TCU 55 at Texas Tech 52

TTU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.6TTU 45.1%Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds for aTD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)AWAY 26 - HOME 28 · Q2 3:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:26 · Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior−14.7Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:28: DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +20.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:53: DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +28.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:22: Kyle Hicks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Trevone Boykin for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +30.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:55: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 50 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +40.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 4 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +61.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:45TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33TCU 4th & 4 at TTU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:06TCU 4th & 2 at TTU 19, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03TCU 4th & 6 at TTU 44, down 5
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46TCU 4th & 9 at TTU 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58TTU 4th & 7 at TCU 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:26TTU 4th & 2 at TCU 4, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−8.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:15TCU 4th & 8 at TTU 8, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:44TTU 4th & 15 at TCU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−4.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−13.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:19TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−6.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:59TTU 4th & 3 at TCU 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−2.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:44TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:02TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:23TCU 4th & 4 at TTU 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−19.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−27.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:51TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:42TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:34TCU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:02TTU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:22TTU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:05TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:26TTU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:15TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:28TTU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:58TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:53TTU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:22TCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    57.0%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.5%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:55TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:23TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5926% → 26%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
25.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for 1 yd to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
26.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 4 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
26.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
26.2%
Taylor Symmank punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4774% → 74%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
26.3%
KaVontae Turpin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 18 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
26.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
26.4%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
26.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
26.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+28
27.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 28 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
27.0%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:0326% → 29%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
26.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 11 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
26.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 59 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
27.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 15 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:0172% → 71%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
28.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 15 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
28.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 16 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
27.9%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
28.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 2 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
28.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
28.9%
Trevone Boykin punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5SF
2 plays · -20 yds · 0:0630% → 29%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-20
28.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:3271% → 73%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.7%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
28.7%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+38
29.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 38 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
28.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 9 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
28.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
29.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
28.9%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
28.9%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
29.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.6%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:1528% → 33%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
28.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
27.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 8 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+14
28.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 14 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
33.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 26 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:3969% → 68%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
31.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 14 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
30.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 33 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
29.9%
Shaun Nixon run for 9 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 18
-1
30.0%
Shaun Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
30.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Buck JonesSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
31.6%
Jaden Oberkrom 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nigel BethelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:3833% → 38%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
33.4%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Sadler, Ian, PENALTY TCU roughing passer (Carraway, Josh) 16 yards to the TCU44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
38.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 44 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:1462% → 61%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh Doctson, broken up by Micah AweSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
38.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Jah'Shawn Johnson) to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
36.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
37.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+4
38.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
39.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2638% → 37%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
36.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian Sadler, broken up by Montrel WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+14
36.9%
Taylor Symmank punt for 55 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 14 yds to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3861% → 63%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
39.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 4 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+33
39.3%
Aaron Green run for 33 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.1%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
38.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
39.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh Doctson, broken up by J.J. GainesSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
36.6%
Jaden Oberkrom 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:4239% → 42%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
39.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 6 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
39.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
39.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
41.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
42.7%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
43.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-1
42.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
41.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald Davis, broken up by Corry O'MeallySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:4662% → 69%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
38.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
37.5%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+52
30.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 52 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3332% → 45%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
33.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
32.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 14 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
34.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 19 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
36.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
36.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
36.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Branden Jackson, broken up by Travin HowardSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+10
34.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
45.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:0058% → 74%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
42.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 18 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
39.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 3
50
+2
39.5%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
39.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
39.6%
Boykin, Trevone rush for 5 yards to the TEXASTECH40, PENALTY TCU holding (Vaitai, Halapoulivaati) 10 yards to the TCU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 20
OWN 45
-3
42.1%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 23
OWN 42
0
41.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun Nixon, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 23
OWN 42
+27
42.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 27 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
37.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 23 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
37.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
37.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18MISSED FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 4:3771% → 71%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.5%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
28.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
29.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart, broken up by Micah AweSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
28.1%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
27.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
50
+16
27.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 16 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
26.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
25.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
26.9%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
26.1%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
26.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 12 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
26.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 1 yd to the TexTc 8Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
29.5%
Jaden Oberkrom 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3931% → 56%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+14
31.0%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Lauderdale, Devin, PENALTY TCU pass interference (O'Meally, Corry) 14 yards to the TEXASTECH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
31.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 43 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
36.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
36.4%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
34.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
36.7%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.9%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.2%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Travin Howard for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 5 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Carraway) to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2451% → 75%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.5%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
48.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+16
45.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 16 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+8
47.3%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
45.4%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Doctson, Josh, PENALTY TCU holding (Foltz, Brady) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+12
46.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 12 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
44.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 10 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
44.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
44.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 12 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
25.0%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:0231% → 40%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
31.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
32.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
32.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+37
30.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 37 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
37.9%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Washington, DeAndre, PENALTY TCU sideline interference 15 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
38.0%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
37.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-5
35.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Alfredo Morales) to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+1
33.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 1 yd DeAndre Washington fumbled, forced by Travin Howard, recovered by TexTc Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
39.9%
Clayton Hatfield 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1863% → 60%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
36.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 17 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
-2
36.7%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 22
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 22
OWN 30
+7
39.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+48
39.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 48 yds , Cameron Batson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 3:1642% → 76%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
41.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+44
42.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 44 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
48.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
48.4%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
46.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
43.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+17
49.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Davion Pierson) to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
49.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
49.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
47.3%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:5938% → 77%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
62.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for 5 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+14
60.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 14 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
58.5%
Aaron Green run for 15 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
55.2%
Aaron Green run for 19 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
52.6%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
22.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Trevone Boykin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2734% → 79%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
34.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Sam Atoe) to the TexTc 13Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
33.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
33.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+19
31.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 19 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
34.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
33.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
38.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 7
50
+50
79.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 50 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5942% → 34%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
58.5%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (Trevone Boykin) to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+7
66.0%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
62.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
66.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3081% → 81%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
81.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
82.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
82.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
81.1%
Taylor Symmank punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:3034% → 94%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
66.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+9
64.6%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
64.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 10 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
61.7%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+16
63.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 16 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
63.0%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.9%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
62.4%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 4Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 4 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 65 yds · 0:1915% → 17%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
14.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.6%
Mahomes, Patrick pass pass intercepted by Howard, Travin at the TCU3, Howard, Travin return 0 yards to the TCU3, PENALTY TCU roughing passer (Bradley, Chris) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
17.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 24 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down lat. to Le'Raven Clark for 5 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down lat. to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down lat. to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 4 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-61
TD · Q4 5:55
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 50 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+40.5
TD · Q4 8:22
Kyle Hicks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Trevone Boykin for Two-Point Conversion)
-30
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com