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OKST

Oklahoma State 30 at Texas 27

TEX
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:16 · Jerrod Heard sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior−2.7Home team on offense+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+2.9Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:02: Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +7.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:12: J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +12.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:34: Mason Rudolph pass intercepted for a TD Holton Hill return for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +27.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:33: Ben Grogan 41 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +21.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  5. FG · Q4 0:06: Ben Grogan 40 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +35.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 9 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:26TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50TEX 4th & 5 at OKST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:52TEX 4th & 19 at OKST 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:23OKST 4th & 7 at TEX 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:02TEX 4th & 2 at OKST 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−7.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:24OKST 4th & 18 at TEX 35, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:52OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:10TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−3.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:07OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−6.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:16TEX 4th & 10 at OKST 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:15OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−4.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:12TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 19, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:53OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:03TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−7.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:33OKST 4th & 15 at TEX 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−15.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−21.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:36TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−18.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:59OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:23OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:02TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:12OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:34TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2937% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
37.0%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-11
37.0%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+8
37.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 58 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 8 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:0263% → 64%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
37.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
37.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 15 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
37.3%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
50
0
37.4%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 8
50
+10
37.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (John Bonney) to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
37.5%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+16
37.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 16 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
37.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
37.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
36.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 17 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:5537% → 38%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
36.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 47 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
37.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
37.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+1
37.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
38.2%
Nick Rose 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1762% → 65%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 15 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
37.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 23 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
37.5%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+35
37.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 31 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Poona Ford) to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
J.W. Walsh run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 6:2236% → 34%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
36.3%
Daje Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
36.5%
DeAndre McNeal run for 9 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
36.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-2
36.7%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+16
36.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 16 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
36.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
37.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 14 yds to the OKSt 21 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taylor Doyle) to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
36.4%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
35.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 12 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
35.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 8 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-10
35.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Connor Williams) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
35.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 12
OPP 21
-5
34.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Kent Perkins) to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-2
34.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+46
34.4%
Nick Rose 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0065% → 61%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
35.2%
Brandon Sheperd run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 14
OWN 21
0
35.4%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
35.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 11 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
35.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
39.3%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Hassan Ridgeway for a loss of 10 yards Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by Texas Hassan Ridgeway , return for 34 yds, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:5660% → 61%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
40.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 7 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.0%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
39.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+23
40.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 23 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
39.2%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
39.3%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
39.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Paul Boyette Jr.) to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
38.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 2 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
38.8%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
39.6%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Austin Hays for 1 yd to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
40.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
39.3%
Ben Grogan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
12 plays · 97 yds · 4:0340% → 50%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
39.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+42
39.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 42 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
50
+9
41.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 9 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
41.9%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+16
41.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 16 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
42.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 10 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
42.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the OKSt 10 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Vahe) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-2
42.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+10
42.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 10 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
42.1%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
49.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 3:3151% → 49%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.6%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
47.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
48.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 7 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
47.7%
Chris Carson run for 13 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
46.5%
Rennie Childs run for 10 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
46.6%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
46.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 27 for a 1ST down lat. to James Washington for 15 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
45.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Timothy Cole for a loss of 8 yards, OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Mason Rudolph) to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 18
OPP 35
-3
47.1%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 21
OPP 38
+3
49.8%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 18
OPP 35
0
51.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1750% → 49%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
50.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 14 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
50.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
52.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 4 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-3
51.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 38
-5
49.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds, downed at the OKSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5949% → 47%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
51.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 17 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
49.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
50.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
51.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+23
52.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 23 yds to the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:3556% → 51%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
55.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jerrod Heard) to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
53.9%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-4
52.6%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Jimmy Bean and TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 19
OWN 38
-6
51.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 4:4347% → 64%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
52.6%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
53.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 3 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+25
54.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 25 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
52.2%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
51.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
52.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 11 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
49.9%
Rennie Childs run for 6 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+29
49.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 29 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
48.0%
Rennie Childs run for 8 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
48.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 3 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
48.3%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5340% → 43%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Johnathan GraySimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.9%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+29
37.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 29 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
43.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
43.5%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
43.0%
Jerrod Heard pass intercepted Seth Jacobs return for no gain to the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5865% → 60%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.0%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-9
36.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+15
40.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 15 yds to the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4242% → 35%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
41.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 29 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
44.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
44.6%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-22
40.0%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Miketavius Jones for a loss of 22 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 33
OPP 47
0
34.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17INT TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3366% → 39%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
34.2%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+12
34.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 12 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
33.1%
Mason Rudolph run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Blake JarwinSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+41
61.0%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted for a TD Holton Hill return for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4541% → 44%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.2%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
58.4%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.2%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
57.7%
Brandon Sheperd run for 7 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
57.4%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+29
56.5%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Dylan Haines return for 29 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0969% → 65%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
69.2%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+6
65.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 10
OPP 39
-6
64.7%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4642% → 34%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
58.2%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
57.8%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-7
59.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Hassan Ridgeway for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 14
OWN 42
-2
65.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds , Daje Johnson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5067% → 65%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
67.4%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
67.3%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+7
65.7%
Jerrod Heard run for 7 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
65.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 3:0840% → 34%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
59.7%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
60.4%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-10
61.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Wilson) to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 19
OWN 36
-5
65.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Brad Lundblade) to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 24
OWN 31
+16
67.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 16 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3071% → 76%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
70.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Vahe) to the Texas 4Similar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 4
+2
70.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+4
71.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+6
72.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to D'Onta Foreman for 6 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 3
OWN 16
-5
74.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Naashon Hughes) to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
76.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:2637% → 49%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
64.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
62.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Poona Ford) to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
60.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
59.9%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
63.0%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+1
68.5%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-5
72.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Ben Grogan) to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
51.3%
Ben Grogan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:4558% → 53%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.0%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
59.0%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Jordan Burton and Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.3%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.4%
Michael Dickson punt for a loss of 6 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:2562% → 95%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
38.4%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
38.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Jhajuan Seales) to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+40
5.2%
Ben Grogan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:06
Ben Grogan 40 yd FG GOOD
-35.8
TD · Q3 1:34
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted for a TD Holton Hill return for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+27.3
FG · Q4 1:33
Ben Grogan 41 yd FG GOOD
-21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com