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ISU

Iowa State 23 at Toledo 30

TOL
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:30 · Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 129Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense+11.1Time remaining−0.6Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:23: Trever Ryen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +18.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 6:27: Cole Netten 47 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +15.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · OT 0:00: Cole Netten 44 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +14.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Jameson Vest 42 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +30.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +19.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39TOL 4th & 12 at ISU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34ISU 4th & 7 at TOL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:58TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44ISU 4th & 22 at ISU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17TOL 4th & 2 at ISU 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:36ISU 4th & 12 at TOL 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:30TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:05TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 25, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:27ISU 4th & 3 at TOL 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−12.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:20TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−6.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 1:16TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:50ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:32TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:23ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Allen Covington) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+3
66.6%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
66.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
66.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Oni Omoile) to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
66.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton Bundrage, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
66.6%
Colin Downing punt for 32 yds , Corey Jones returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2167% → 67%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
50
0
66.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
50
+39
66.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 39 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
66.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
66.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Phillip Ely) to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
66.6%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+1
66.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 1 yd to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
66.5%
Jameson Vest 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:0133% → 35%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
66.6%
Mike Warren run for 13 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
66.6%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
66.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+16
66.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 16 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
66.4%
Trever Ryen run for 11 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
66.3%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
66.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
66.3%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
66.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 6 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
66.2%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
66.2%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
66.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
65.2%
Cole Netten 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 5:1366% → 70%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
65.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
65.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+3
65.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
65.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
65.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
65.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
65.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mike Ebert) to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+39
65.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 24 yds to the TOLEDO 47 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (Kamari Cotton-Moya) to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
66.6%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+29
66.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 29 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
66.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the IowSt 4Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
66.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the IowSt 3Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:1131% → 30%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
69.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
69.3%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+12
69.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 12 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for no gain to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
69.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+14
69.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 14 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.7%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
68.9%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the IowSt 47 Joel Lanning fumbled, forced by Chaz Whittaker, recovered by IowSt Joel LanningSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
68.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
-5
69.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, delay of game (Colin Downing) to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+48
69.9%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the TOLEDO 19 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Trevon Mathis) to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3770% → 70%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
70.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
70.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Darian CottonSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
70.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Nigel TribuneSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+2
70.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
69.9%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Orion Jones and Allen Covington for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 16
OWN 39
-6
70.8%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Allen Covington for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 22
OWN 33
0
71.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 22
OWN 33
+4
72.0%
Colin Downing punt blocked by Cody Thompson blocked by Cody Thompson Cody Thompson return for 4 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 3:2773% → 75%
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.1%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
72.5%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
75.0%
Jameson Vest 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:2325% → 33%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 5 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
74.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Carson Epps for 6 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
74.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 9 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
73.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 2 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
73.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
74.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-10
73.2%
Thomas, Joshua rush for 1 yard to the TOLEDO48 (MURDOCK, Chase;COLEMAN, Jaylen), PENALTY ISU holding (Philbert, J.) 10 yards to the ISU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+59
66.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 59 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0067% → 70%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
67.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Phillip Ely) to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
67.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon Wilcher, broken up by Darian CottonSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+4
67.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
69.5%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Brian Peavy return for no gain to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
64.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
50
+4
63.8%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton Bundrage, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
63.9%
Sam B. Richardson run for 9 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+8
64.0%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
62.9%
Mike Warren run for 14 yds to the Toled 15 Mike Warren fumbled, forced by Rolan Milligan, recovered by Toled Connery SwiftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:0767% → 71%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+34
66.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 34 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
68.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
68.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 11 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
68.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 14 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
69.6%
ELY, Phillip pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY ISU offside 5 yards to the ISU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+36
71.1%
Jameson Vest 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
68.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:2367% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
66.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
67.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kareem Hunt, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+5
65.9%
ELLIS, Nick punt 50 yards to the ISU9, fair catch by Lazard, Allen, PENALTY ISU offside (West, Quan) 5 yards to the TOLEDO46, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
68.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the TOLEDO 46 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (Pierre Aka) to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
69.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
69.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
69.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
69.6%
Jon'Vea Johnson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
69.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 0
OWN 2
0
80.3%
Alex Zmolik 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:5222% → 21%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
78.3%
Mike Warren run for 41 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
76.3%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-4
76.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-10
78.2%
Richardson, SB rush for 27 yards to the TOLEDO15, PENALTY ISU holding (Campos, Jake) 10 yards to the ISU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 25
OWN 48
+18
78.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 18 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
78.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Jake Campos) to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
79.5%
Holden Kramer punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
78.7%
JONES-MOORE, D. rush for 3 yards to the TOLEDO15 (Tribune, Nigel), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (PERSCHON, Paul) 6 yards to the TOLEDO6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+5
78.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
78.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+24
77.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 24 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
79.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
78.7%
Phillip Ely run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
78.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
21 plays · 89 yds · 8:4620% → 33%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
80.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 5 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
80.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+12
81.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
79.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 14 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
78.7%
Mike Warren run for 14 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
77.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Wendell Taiese) to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+1
78.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+6
78.7%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+9
77.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Joel Lanning for 9 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
76.1%
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+11
79.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 11 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
78.9%
Jauan Wesley run for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
79.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 9 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
83.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 2 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
85.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Brock Dagel) to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
85.8%
Richardson, SB pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (NORRILS, C.) 12 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.4%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.7%
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1274% → 72%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
74.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
74.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 45 yds, downed at the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2229% → 50%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
71.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
70.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
69.2%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
67.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+21
70.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 21 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
65.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
62.8%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
65.4%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
49.6%
Cole Netten 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
59.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
54.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21MISSED FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:3548% → 60%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.9%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-6
52.7%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+21
55.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 21 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
48.2%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
47.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
50
+4
46.2%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan Wesley, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
45.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario Montgomery, broken up by Cheatham NorrilsSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+21
48.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 21 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
41.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 12 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
41.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-5
41.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Brock Dagel) to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
41.8%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+32
40.5%
Cole Netten 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
40.5%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
41.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
43.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
28.8%
Cole Netten 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
35.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
31.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
56.8%
Jameson Vest 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
64.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+9
62.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+15
88.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 15 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
80.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 1 yd to the Toled 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Jaylen ColemanSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
91.2%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Tre James for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · OT 0:00
Jameson Vest 42 yd FG GOOD
+30.5
TD · OT 0:00
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q4 11:23
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com