Try the model
SMU

SMU 37 at TCU 56

TCU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:52 · Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+39.5Home team on offense+8.4Garbage-time factor+3.4Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:59: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 31 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:42: Matt Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:23: Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:20: Chad Hedlund 32 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:32: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 5:00SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:39SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:19TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:02SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:52TCU 4th & 10 at SMU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:34SMU 4th & 5 at TCU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:25SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 3, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:01SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:34TCU 4th & 22 at TCU 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 5, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%−1.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−1.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:20SMU 4th & 10 at TCU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−2.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:01SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:44SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:57TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:09TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:16TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:01TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:12SMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:59TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:18TCU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:42SMU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:23SMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:32TCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:56TCU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:011% → 2%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
98.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
98.7%
Matt Davis run for 19 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.6%
Davis, Matt pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
98.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-1
98.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+16
98.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 16 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+61
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 61 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 82 yds · 5:452% → 3%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-1
98.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+24
98.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 24 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.1%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
98.1%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
98.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
97.9%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+25
97.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
97.7%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
97.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
97.6%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+22
97.5%
Chad Hedlund 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2198% → 98%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
97.5%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+6
97.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+16
97.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 16 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
97.3%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+39
97.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 39 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
97.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
97.3%
Josh Williams punt for 36 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 6 yds to the TCU 27 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:5197% → 97%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+54
97.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 54 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.2%
Shaun Nixon run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:223% → 3%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.0%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+16
96.9%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 3 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Bryson Henderson) to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
96.7%
Davis, Matt pass complete to Sutton, Courtland for 41 yards to the TCU41, PENALTY SMU holding 9 yards to the SMU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+2
96.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+2
96.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 2 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 15
OWN 13
0
96.6%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
96.6%
Josh Williams punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:1497% → 98%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
96.5%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
96.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+18
96.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 18 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
97.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 29 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:073% → 3%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.2%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
97.1%
Davis, Matt pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY SMU pass interference 15 yards to the SMU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+5
97.2%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+4
97.1%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Josh Williams punt for 27 yds, downed at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5897% → 97%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
97.2%
Aaron Green run for 20 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
97.2%
Ty Slanina run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
97.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-6
97.1%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 37 Trevone Boykin fumbled, recovered by TCU Trevone BoykinSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
96.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:113% → 3%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+16
96.7%
Matt Davis run for 16 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 15 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
96.5%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
96.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-4
96.3%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
96.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
96.7%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:2997% → 98%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 18 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+16
96.9%
Aaron Green run for 16 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:402% → 4%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
97.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 63 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
97.0%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
97.1%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
97.3%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
97.1%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
96.7%
Aaron Green run for 33 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4696% → 98%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
96.0%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+12
96.0%
Aaron Green run for 12 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.1%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+20
96.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 20 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 31 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
97.3%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Josh Williams punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:3298% → 100%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+38
98.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 38 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
98.3%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+8
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 8 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Dominic Merka for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:231% → 3%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
99.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 35 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.2%
Davis, Matt pass incomplete to Malone, Ryheem, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+24
99.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 24 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
99.1%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 4 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by SMU Matt DavisSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.2%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2198% → 98%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Horace Richardson return for 19 yds to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:373% → 6%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
97.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 19 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
97.3%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:3195% → 95%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
95.2%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
95.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
95.3%
Boykin, Trevone rush for 6 yards to the TCU43, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
95.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+4
95.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 14 yds to the TCU 41 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 16
OWN 31
-6
95.2%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Robert Seals and Justin Lawler for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 22
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete TCU Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+10
94.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 45 yds , Braeden West returns for 10 yds to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:156% → 8%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+46
94.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 46 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
93.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
93.2%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
93.6%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+21
91.9%
Chad Hedlund 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4194% → 94%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.1%
Aaron Green run for 16 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
94.7%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
95.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
94.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
94.6%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
95.2%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
95.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
94.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 15 yds to the SMU 16 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
94.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
94.0%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:408% → 14%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
91.7%
Matt Davis run for 19 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+43
91.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 43 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
89.4%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 14
OPP 19
-3
89.8%
Matt Davis sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+7
92.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
85.6%
Chad Hedlund 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2889% → 97%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
89.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 22 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
91.0%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
91.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
91.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
97.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
97.0%
Davis, Matt pass incomplete to Sutton, Courtland, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the SMU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
96.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 7 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
96.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
96.9%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:4997% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.4%
Shaun Nixon run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+6
97.7%
Shaun Nixon run for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
97.8%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+17
98.0%
Shaun Nixon run for 17 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
98.2%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
98.2%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.5%
Darius Durall run for 7 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 8:20
Chad Hedlund 32 yd FG GOOD
-7.3
TD · Q4 6:32
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 5:23
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
-3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com