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UTSA

UTSA 14 at Oklahoma State 69

OKST
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:25 · Yannis Routsas punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+32.6Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+4.2Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:25: Ben Grogan 24 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +0.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:55: Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +2.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:25: Chris Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +3.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:02: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:14: Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 46 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:33UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25OKST 4th & 7 at UTSA 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:55OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:25UTSA 4th & 6 at OKST 43, down 17
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:36UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:20OKST 4th & 22 at OKST 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:01UTSA 4th & 9 at OKST 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:33OKST 4th & 16 at UTSA 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:37OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 32, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:40UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 25, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:24UTSA 4th & 8 at OKST 41, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:12OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 45, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:04UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 32, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:33OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:55UTSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:25OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:02OKST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:14OKST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:37UTSA Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:11OKST Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:40OKST Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:45OKST Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -17 yds · 0:455% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
95.0%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+6
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Miketavius Jones for a loss of 9 yards Blake Bogenschutz fumbled, recovered by OKSt Devante Averette , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
94.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 Blake Bogenschutz fumbled, forced by Jordan Sterns, recovered by OKSt Jordan BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3195% → 95%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
94.9%
Chris Carson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
94.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Ashton LampkinSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
94.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+4
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
94.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
94.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+13
94.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
94.6%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Burton) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 2
OPP 35
+4
94.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
94.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Derrick Dick for 5 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-5
94.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Jordan Gray) to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
94.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 16 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted Ramon Richards return for no gain to the OKSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 89 yds · 4:1895% → 95%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
94.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 8 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+6
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+45
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 45 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
94.9%
Rennie Childs run for 6 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
94.9%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
94.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 7 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Aneas HenricksSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.9%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the TexSA 7Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
95.0%
Ben Grogan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:305% → 8%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
94.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
94.8%
Derrick Dick run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
50
+5
94.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
94.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, offside defense (Devante Averette) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+4
94.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
94.8%
Aaron Grubb run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+12
94.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Brady Jones for 12 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
94.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 12 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the OKSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
92.4%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+2
92.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+46
92.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the OKLAST 39 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:228% → 7%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
92.1%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 24 Blake Bogenschutz fumbled, recovered by TexSA Blake BogenschutzSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+3
92.3%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 3 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+9
92.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted Kevin Peterson return for 9 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:5893% → 96%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
92.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 19 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
92.8%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
92.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
94.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
94.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+30
94.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 30 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
94.4%
Kenny Bias run for no gain to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
94.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
94.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 1:2796% → 98%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
95.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 7 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+10
95.8%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
95.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 13 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
95.9%
Chris Carson run for 17 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+38
95.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 38 yds to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+27
97.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 27 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
97.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+9
97.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+19
97.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Trace ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4698% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
Jeff Carr run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
97.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeff Carr for no gain to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST down to Jalen McCleskey for 19 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.8%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
97.8%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+46
99.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 46 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:381% → 0%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
99.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 12 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 10 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-3
99.5%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, offside defense (Jarrell Owens) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 3
50
-5
99.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Reed Darragh) to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 17 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
99.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Marcos Curry and Kevin Strong Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-10
99.7%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Sheperd,Brandon, PENALTY OSU holding (Lewis, Paul) 10 yards to the OSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 27
OWN 20
-2
99.7%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 29
OWN 18
+7
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for 7 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Zach Sinor punt for 33 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+11
99.7%
Peyton Hall run for 11 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
99.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 17 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
99.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-7
99.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jimmy Bean for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 23Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kenny BiasSimilar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
99.8%
Daniel Portillo 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
99.8%
Rennie Childs run for 8 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 20 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 7 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+19
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 19 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jeremy SeatonSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-6
99.8%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Marcos Curry for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
99.8%
Ben Grogan 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 9 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kenny Bias, broken up by Ramon RichardsSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
99.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 35 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q4 14:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 30 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for no gain to the TexSA 38 JaBryce Taylor fumbled, recovered by OKSt Deric RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 19 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 4 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 13 yds for a TD TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q4 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
100.0%
Russell Bellomy run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Russell Bellomy pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 32 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 43 Jalen McCleskey fumbled, recovered by TexSA Nate GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
100.0%
Peyton Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 41Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Russell Bellomy pass incomplete to Derrick DickSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+26
100.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds for a touchback TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Darryl Godfrey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Rennie Childs run for 9 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.9%
Carr, Jeff rush for 4 yards to the UTSA45 (Garcia), PENALTY OSU holding (Veatch, Zac) 10 yards to the OSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-6
99.9%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Romario Napoles for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Jeff Carr run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 25
OWN 36
+9
99.9%
Raymond Taylor run for 9 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
100.0%
Brian Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Brian Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
Russell Bellomy run for 3 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Russell Bellomy pass complete to Campbell Jr. for 3 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Brian Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Russell Bellomy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+17
100.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 52 yds , Brandon Sheperd returns for 17 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 9 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+58
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 58 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 30FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
100.0%
Corbin White run for 1 yd Corbin White fumbled, forced by Kirk Tucker, recovered by OKSt Deric Robertson , return for 22 yds, (Matt Hockett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:25
Chris Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 11:55
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
-2.7
TD · Q2 1:02
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com