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TLSA

Tulsa 38 at Oklahoma 52

OU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:41 · Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+47.4Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Keevan Lucas 28 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +2.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Keyarris Garrett 43 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: Jarvis Baxter 29 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:01: Zack Langer 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:40: Mark Andrews 17 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 10
  1. Q1 13:41TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:03OU 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04TLSA 4th & 3 at OU 6, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49TLSA 4th & 2 at OU 15, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:11OU 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:03TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:01TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:57OU 4th & 1 at TLSA 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:02TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:27TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:08OU 4th & 7 at OU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:25TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 21, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:28OU 4th & 2 at TLSA 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:54OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:18OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:31OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:20TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:14OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:13TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:01TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:47OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:01TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:40OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:28OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:38TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:2798% → 98%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
97.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 39 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
97.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 22 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
97.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
97.5%
Austin Seibert 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:553% → 3%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.4%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
97.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+14
97.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 14 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
97.3%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+12
97.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
97.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+12
97.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 12 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.1%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
97.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
96.8%
Redford Jones 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:5197% → 97%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
96.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
96.7%
Daniel Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+12
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 12 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
96.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
96.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 12 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.5%
Daniel Brooks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
50
+11
96.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
96.9%
Baker Mayfield 39 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:213% → 4%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
96.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 10 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
96.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-1
96.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+1
96.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:5697% → 97%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
96.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
96.7%
Daniel Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
96.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Mitchell) to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
96.6%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
96.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+9
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 9 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
97.3%
Joe Mixon 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:173% → 3%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.0%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+46
96.9%
Zack Langer run for 46 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.7%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
96.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+2
96.8%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
96.7%
Redford Jones 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Devante Bond Ahmad Thomas return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0597% → 98%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
50
+18
97.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 18 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
97.2%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+18
97.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 18 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.2%
Baker Mayfield 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.0%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
98.0%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+18
98.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 50 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 18 yds to the Okla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:5398% → 98%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
98.2%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Jake Hanks for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+18
98.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 18 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.3%
Daniel Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+24
98.3%
Samaje Perine run for 24 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.3%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 8 Samaje Perine fumbled, forced by Matt Linscott, recovered by Tulsa Derrick AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 3:502% → 4%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
98.2%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+9
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
98.1%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
98.1%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+22
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 22 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
97.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Ahmad Thomas and Charles Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+5
98.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+18
98.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 18 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
97.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
97.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
95.8%
Joshua Atkinson 18 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
96.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 18 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 26 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
96.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-8
96.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:034% → 4%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
96.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-5
95.8%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
96.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
96.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
96.2%
Joe Mixon run for 10 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
96.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+61
98.6%
Mark Andrews 61 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
98.1%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.1%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
98.6%
Daniel Brooks run for 9 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+11
98.6%
Joe Mixon run for 11 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
98.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 44 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
98.7%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 20 Joe Mixon fumbled, forced by James Flanders, recovered by Tulsa Jesse BrubakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:072% → 4%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.2%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
98.1%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+17
98.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
97.9%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
98.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
95.6%
Keevan Lucas 28 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
92.4%
Keyarris Garrett 43 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5193% → 93%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
93.0%
Samaje Perine run for 17 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
93.4%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
93.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 2 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
92.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
92.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:477% → 8%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
92.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
92.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-5
93.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+15
92.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
92.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
91.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
91.2%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
91.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
91.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:5993% → 97%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
92.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
92.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
92.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.6%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
92.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 11 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
93.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
93.5%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
93.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
96.6%
Jarvis Baxter 29 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 2:275% → 13%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
95.5%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
95.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+13
95.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
95.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 17 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
94.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
94.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 4 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
94.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+11
94.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 11 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
94.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
94.7%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.4%
Zack Langer 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0592% → 97%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
91.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Trent Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+13
91.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 13 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
92.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.9%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+15
92.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 15 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
93.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 9 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+1
93.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
93.8%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
97.3%
Mark Andrews 17 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:044% → 4%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
96.0%
Zack Langer run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
96.0%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
96.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
96.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 5 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-15
96.0%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+3
96.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+6
96.4%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0797% → 97%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
97.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 2 yds to the Okla 16Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
97.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 3 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+9
97.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
97.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 23Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+5
97.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 5 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
97.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:333% → 3%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4997% → 100%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.3%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
97.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.5%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
97.7%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
97.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
97.5%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
97.9%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-5
97.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
98.0%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.6%
Samaje Perine run for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:351% → 3%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 26 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+40
97.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30END OF GAME
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:5198% → 99%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.1%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
98.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-5
98.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.2%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
98.3%
Samaje Perine run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
98.6%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
98.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
98.7%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:01
Zack Langer 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
-7.3
TD · Q2 0:01
Keyarris Garrett 43 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)
-4
TD · Q3 0:40
Mark Andrews 17 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com