Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 30 at UTSA 3

UTSA
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:47 · Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 2 yds to the KanSt 24 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Danzel McDaniel) to the KanSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−24.1Home team on offense−7.8Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:39: Daniel Portillo 51 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +2.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:34: Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Daniel Portillo kickoff for 64 yds , Morgan Burns return for 46 yds to the KanSt 47 — UTSA win probability +3.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:47: Jack Cantele 29 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:50: Justin Silmon run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 10:39UTSA 4th & 6 at KSU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:04KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:49UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34UTSA 4th & 1 at KSU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:19KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54UTSA 4th & 3 at KSU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:52KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47KSU 4th & 12 at UTSA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:34KSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:34UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:49KSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:49UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:31UTSA 4th & 15 at KSU 49, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 11:34KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:50KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:57KSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 4:219% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
9.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
9.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
9.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
9.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
9.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+13
9.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
9.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Kerry Thomas Jr.) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-5
9.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Jordan Gray) to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-3
9.0%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 49
+10
9.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 10 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-10
9.0%
Bogenschutz rush quarterback draw for 12 yards to the KS29, out-of-bounds (Prewett), PENALTY UTSA holding (Pratt) 10 yards to the UTSA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 49
+17
9.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 17 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
11.0%
Daniel Portillo 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:4089% → 88%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
10.9%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
10.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-5
11.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Terrale Johnston) to the KanSt 15Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+15
11.0%
Joe Hubener run for 15 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
11.9%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
11.7%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
11.8%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+23
11.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 38 yds, downed at the TEXASSAN 23 KANSAS ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Elijah Lee) to the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
13.3%
Williams,J rush left for 13 yards to the KS49 (Lee), PENALTY UTSA holding (Morgan II) 10 yards to the UTSA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
13.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
13.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+4
12.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
12.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds , Dominique Heath returns for no gain to the KanSt 18 Dominique Heath fumbled, forced by Team, recovered by KanSt Dalvin WarmackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.2%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
14.2%
Joe Hubener sacked by Drew Douglas for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 14Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+27
14.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 27 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
13.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
13.9%
Joe Hubener run for 6 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
13.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
14.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
15.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+8
15.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 8 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
15.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
15.9%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
15.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kenny Bias, broken up by Morgan BurnsSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+47
15.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 47 yds , Dominique Heath returns for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:3283% → 85%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
16.7%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
16.7%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Andre Davis for 13 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.6%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+53
17.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Winston Dimel for 53 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
16.2%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+11
16.2%
Joe Hubener run for 11 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.2%
Winston Dimel run for no gain to the TexSA 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
16.2%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
17.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 13 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
17.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (David Morgan II) to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
17.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
18.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
17.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
17.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds, downed at the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
18.3%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+7
18.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 7 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
17.8%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
17.6%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 0
0
16.1%
Hubener deep in pass complete to Burton for 11 yards to the KS33 (Okotcha;Gaines), PENALTY KS holding off-setting, PENALTY UTSA roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
18.1%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+2
18.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:4220% → 20%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
20.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+20
19.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (Travis Britz) to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
20.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kenny BiasSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
20.6%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 4 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+13
20.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
21.6%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
21.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+8
20.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 8 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
21.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 3 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
21.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (David Morgan II) to the KanSt 11Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
21.6%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Travis Britz for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+14
19.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 14 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Triston Crossland, broken up by Will DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5880% → 79%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
20.2%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 1Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+7
20.4%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 8
0
20.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+3
21.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0021% → 18%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
21.4%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Marquel Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 17
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
18.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Kaleb PrewettSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
18.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds, downed at the KanSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:1381% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
19.0%
Joe Hubener sacked by Brian Price for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+36
20.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Andre Davis for 36 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
18.0%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
18.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Andre Davis for 11 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
18.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 14Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
18.2%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
18.3%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
19.0%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
16.9%
Jack Cantele 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
17.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
17.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+5
17.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+2
16.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 2 yds to the KanSt 24 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Danzel McDaniel) to the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:0082% → 85%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+31
17.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 31 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
15.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Glenn Gronkowski) to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+10
16.6%
Hubener deep pass incomplete to Heath, PENALTY UTSA holding (Gaines) 10 yards to the UTSA43, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
15.8%
Hubener deep pass incomplete to Davis,A, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Henricks) 15 yards to the UTSA28, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
15.5%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
15.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
15.9%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
15.5%
Winston Dimel run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 18Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+8
15.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
15.9%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
14.6%
Jack Cantele 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
14.5%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 6 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
14.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 6 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
14.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 7 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
15.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
15.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Danzel McDanielSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
14.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3086% → 95%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
13.6%
Justin Silmon run for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
13.1%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Justyn Eddins) to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
12.6%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
12.6%
Winston Dimel run for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
13.2%
Joe Hubener run for 5 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
12.6%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
4.8%
Justin Silmon run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
7.0%
Kenny Bias run for 11 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
7.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
7.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
7.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OWN 42
-6
7.5%
Yannis Routsas run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5896% → 99%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
4.5%
Joe Hubener run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+27
4.6%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Winston Dimel for 27 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
4.4%
Winston Dimel run for 3 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+5
4.4%
Winston Dimel run for 5 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
4.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the TexSA 2Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-5
3.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Dalton Risner) to the TexSA 7Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+3
2.0%
Joe Hubener run for 3 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
1.0%
Jack Cantele 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
2.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
2.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Bias for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+15
2.0%
Bogenschutz deep pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., PENALTY KS pass interference (McDaniel) 15 yards to the UTSA32, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
2.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-5
2.0%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Travis Britz for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
2.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
2.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:2299% → 100%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.8%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
0.9%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
0.9%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Andre Davis for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
0.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
0.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 8 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
0.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 22 yds to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.7%
Winston Dimel run for 4 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
0.2%
Rhodes rush left for loss of 1 yard to the UTSA21 (Adams;Moore,Cr), PENALTY UTSA personal foul 11 yards to the UTSA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+8
0.2%
Russell Bellomy run for 8 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+16
0.1%
Russell Bellomy pass complete to N/A for 16 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
0.2%
Russell Bellomy pass complete to Aron Taylor for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
0.2%
Russell Bellomy run for 1 yd to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
0.2%
Russell Bellomy pass complete to Aron Taylor for 10 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
0.2%
Russell Bellomy sacked by Davis Clark and Demonte Hood for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 16
50
0
0.2%
Russell Bellomy pass incomplete, broken up by Matt SeiwertSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 16
50
+1
0.2%
Russell Bellomy run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
0.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 31 yds, downed at the KanSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
0.1%
Alex Delton run for 8 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
0.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for 6 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:50
Justin Silmon run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 11:34
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-4
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Daniel Portillo kickoff for 64 yds , Morgan Burns return for 46 yds to the KanSt 47
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com