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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:43 · James Farrimond punt for 39 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:22: Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +2.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:23: Samuel Stewart run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +5.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:27: Samuel Stewart run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +6.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:37: Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +8.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 8:14: Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by Texas Malik Jefferson , return for 26 yds, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 14:53RICE 4th & 23 at RICE 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q1 6:43RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 46, down 7Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it15.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:43RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 11:23TEX 4th & 3 at RICE 47, up 14Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it88.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:27TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it80.0%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q3 9:57TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it89.7%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.9%average punt
- Q3 8:14RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 33, down 21Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:08TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q3 4:33RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 17, down 21Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 1 at TEX 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%71% to convertField goal0.1%−0.266% to makePunt-0.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 4:32TEX 4th & 6 at RICE 43, up 21Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%40% to convertField goal99.1%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:29TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:22TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:23RICE Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.3%97% to makeGo for two12.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:27RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.3%97% to makeGo for two16.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:37TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:05TEX Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:41RICE Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:36RICE Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRICEDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -13 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
85.0%
DILLARD, Darik rush up middle for 3 yards to the RICE49 (Jefferson, Malik;Haines, Dylan), PENALTY RICE offensive holding (MARTIN, Trey) 10 yards to the RICE36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 23
OWN 33
0
85.0%
James Farrimond punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5485% → 85%
Q1 13:23
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+25
84.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 35 yds to the TEXAS 46 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
84.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 8 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
85.1%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 32 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4615% → 14%
Q1 6:43
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+85
86.3%
James Farrimond punt for 39 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
TEXDrive 5TD2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4288% → 90%
RICEDrive 6INT14 plays · 52 yds · 3:2210% → 9%
Q1 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
89.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Cole Hunt for 9 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 6
50
-7
89.4%
Samuel Stewart run for 3 yds to the TEXAS 47 RICE Penalty, offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+22
91.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 22 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+10
90.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 10 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+31
90.8%
Driphus Jackson pass intercepted Jason Hall return for 31 yds to the Texas 35 Jason Hall fumbled, forced by Zach Wright, recovered by Rice Peter GodberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD4 plays · 35 yds · 1:269% → 14%
Q2 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+8
91.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 8 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
88.2%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 11 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD16 plays · 87 yds · 6:4912% → 20%
Q2 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
87.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 7 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 8
50
+10
87.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 10 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
87.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 13 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
83.3%
Heard, Jerrod LS pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti, PENALTY UT offensive pass interference (Foreman, Armanti) 12 yards to the UT13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
82.7%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Derek Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11INT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3519% → 19%
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2083% → 81%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
83.4%
Jerrod Heard run for 23 yds to the TEXAS 42 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, offensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
81.4%
FOX, Jack kickoff 60 yards to the UT5, Foreman, D'Onta return to the UT23 (ELDER, Nick), PENALTY RICE offside (BROWN, Derek) 5 yards to the RICE30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
89.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FUMBLE10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q3 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
88.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 5 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-1
87.0%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 26 Darik Dillard fumbled, forced by Edwin Freeman, recovered by Texas Paul Boyette Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 9:57
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Samuel Stewart at the Rice 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16FUMBLE TD2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1611% → 3%
RICEDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
96.5%
James Farrimond punt for 39 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
TEXDrive 20TD5 plays · 28 yds · 1:5298% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD22 plays · 75 yds · 9:240% → 1%
Q3 1:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 8 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 7 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 8 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 9 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 27
-10
99.8%
JACKSON, Driphu rush up middle for 3 yards to the UT24, PENALTY RICE offensive holding (WILLIAMS, Caleb) 10 yards to the UT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 37
+15
99.8%
JACKSON, Driphu LS pass incomplete to PARKS, Dennis, PENALTY UT personal foul (Boyette Jr., Paul) 15 yards to the UT22, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 6 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
RICEDrive 23TD8 plays · 85 yds · 3:481% → 3%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
99.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Cole Hunt for 25 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Cameron Decell for 5 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
99.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Cameron Decell for 3 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
99.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Luke Turner for 18 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
96.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Luke Turner for 14 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24INT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:153% → 2%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
97.4%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Chris Nelson for a loss of 9 yards to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+17
98.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darik Dillard for 17 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+13
98.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darik Dillard for 13 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
98.1%
Tyler Stehling pass intercepted Breckyn Hager return for 10 yds to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:37
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+8
FUMBLE · Q3 8:14
Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by Texas Malik Jefferson , return for 26 yds, (Nick Rose KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 2:27
Samuel Stewart run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Fox KICK)
-6.2