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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 7 at TCU 70

TCU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:27 · Ethan Perry punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+42.7Home team on offense+23.1Score differential+14.5Blowout margin+4.8Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:51: Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:40: Aaron Green run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:57: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 60 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:27: Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 11:34: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — SFA win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SFA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:35SFA 4th & 11 at SFA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47SFA 4th & 10 at TCU 10, tied
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34SFA 4th & 16 at SFA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06SFA 4th & 14 at SFA 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18SFA 4th & 3 at SFA 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27TCU 4th & 7 at SFA 40, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:14SFA 4th & 13 at SFA 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24SFA 4th & 3 at TCU 13, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 29, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:08SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 43, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:31TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 47, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:11SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 7, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:30SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 35, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10SFA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:51TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:40TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:57TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:27TCU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:34TCU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:23TCU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:37TCU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:29TCU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:25TCU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:02SFA Touchdown, down 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:02TCU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
99.6%
Aaron Piper run for 15 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.6%
Joshawa West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 36Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Jabralon AllenSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Joshawa WestSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Nick Bruno punt for 46 yds, downed at the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun Nixon, broken up by Marlon WallsSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:590% → 1%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.6%
Zach Conque pass complete to Reggie Daniels for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
99.5%
Joshawa West run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+13
99.5%
Zach Conque run for 13 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.5%
Zach Conque run for 8 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
99.5%
Zach Conque pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
99.5%
Zach Conque run for 3 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.4%
Zach Conque pass complete to Robert Sylvester for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
99.4%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Justice LigginsSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.4%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+24
99.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 24 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+51
99.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 51 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.4%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the SFAus 5Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-2
99.4%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 7Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
99.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the SFAus 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
99.4%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 15Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+5
99.3%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 5 yds to the SFAus 20Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-10
99.3%
Zach Conque sacked by Chris Bradley for a loss of 10 yards to the SFAus 10Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+32
99.3%
Nick Bruno punt for 52 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 32 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 5 yds to the SFAus 25Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+18
99.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 18 yds to the SFAus 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.3%
Joshawa West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.3%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 21Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.3%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.3%
Nick Bruno punt for 43 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 60 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
SFA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Lamont Alexander), 15 yards, kickoff at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Conque run for no gain to the SFAus 25Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Joshawa West run for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 25Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+37
99.5%
Nick Bruno punt for 48 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 37 yds to the SFAus 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+14
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 14 yds to the SFAus 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the SFAus 15Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+9
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds to the SFAus 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
Joshawa West run for 3 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.7%
Zach Conque sacked by Tevin Lawson and Bryson Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 29 Zach Conque fumbled, recovered by TCU Chris Bradley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
99.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 17 yds to the SFAus 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 3 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Robert SylvesterSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Fred Ford run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for 4 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Nick Bruno punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-13
99.7%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Johnson, Trevorris, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Pryor, Matt) 13 yards to the TCU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 20
OWN 13
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+28
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 28 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
99.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
99.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFAus 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
99.8%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Chance Barney and Demetrion Amie for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 40Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart, broken up by Justin OwensSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Zach Conque run for no gain to the SFAus 20Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Fred Ford run for 4 yds to the SFAus 24Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-7
99.9%
Zach Conque sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 17Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Nick Bruno punt for 48 yds, downed at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Marlon Walls return for 14 yds to the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
99.8%
Zach Conque sacked by Terrell Lathan and Aaron Curry for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+15
99.8%
Conque, Zach pass incomplete to Sylvester, Robert, PENALTY TCU roughing passer (Carraway, Josh) 15 yards to the TCU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SFA.Similar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.8%
Fred Ford run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
Fred Ford run for 4 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for no gain Joshawa West fumbled, recovered by SFAus Aaron ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+7
99.8%
Zach Conque pass intercepted Michael Downing return for 7 yds to the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
99.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 14 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.8%
Josh Doctson run for 6 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 5 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Shaun Nixon run for 4 yds to the SFAus 48Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby Listenbee, broken up by Tarrin MitchellSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+34
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 34 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SFAus 10Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+7
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 3 yds for a TD SFA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tarrin Mitchell) declined, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 20INT TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Fred Ford run for 9 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
Fred Ford run for 4 yds to the SFAus 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Aaron ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Fred Ford run for 2 yds to the SFAus 40Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+50
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass intercepted for a TD Denzel Johnson return for 50 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass complete to Judah Jones for 2 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 29Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Nick Bruno punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Ty Slanina for 27 yds to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 39 yds to the SFAus 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass complete to Cole Carter for 10 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Hunter Taylor run for 8 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Cole CarterSimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Braxton Bearden, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Nick Bruno punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 14 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 5 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
99.9%
Johnson, Trevorris rush for 4 yards to the TCU49, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Thompson, Bobby) 15 yards to the TCU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 21
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 13 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Zach AllenSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 47 yds , Judah Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Hunter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
100.0%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the SFAus 7Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
100.0%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Judah JonesSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
100.0%
Nick Bruno punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFAus 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Preston Miller for 6 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFAus 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFAus 26Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the SFAus 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 16 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
100.0%
Loren Easly run for 75 yds for a TD, (Nick Bruno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 9:35100% → 100%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
100.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Charlie Reid for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 3 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 5 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 2 yds to the SFAus 44Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+3
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 3 yds to the SFAus 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 10 yds to the SFAus 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 7 yds to the SFAus 24Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 5 yds to the SFAus 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 2 yds to the SFAus 17Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 3 yds to the SFAus 14Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+11
100.0%
Foster Sawyer run for 11 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Colten Christensen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
100.0%
Loren Easly run for 11 yds to the SFAus 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the SFAus 35Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Braxton BeardenSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Nick Bruno punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 6 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
100.0%
Stacy Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
100.0%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:57
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 60 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 13:27
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 6:51
Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com