Try the model
CARK

Central Arkansas 8 at Oklahoma State 32

OKST
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Boone Pickens Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:40 · Zach Sinor punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+31.0Score differential+23.0Garbage-time factor+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:23: Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 67 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:08: Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for 39 yds for a TD, (Taylor Reed pass to Zach Gougler for Two-Point Conversion) — CARK win probability +4.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:30: Ben Grogan 22 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:40: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeff Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 29 — OKST win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:53: Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 31 yds for a TD CENTRAL ARK Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan PAT BLOCKED) — OKST win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CARK made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:44CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:44OKST 4th & 14 at CARK 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:44CARK 4th & 4 at CARK 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:17CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00OKST 4th & 7 at CARK 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:27CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:08CARK 4th & 16 at CARK 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:08OKST 4th & 6 at midfield, up 10
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:53CARK 4th & 8 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:59OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:23CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:30OKST 4th & 5 at CARK 5, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:45CARK 4th & 2 at OKST 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:53CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:56OKST 4th & 1 at CARK 6, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:56CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 45, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:40OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:45CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:17OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:23OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:08CARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:53OKST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
98.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 5 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
98.7%
Brandon Sheperd run for 2 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
98.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
98.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:081% → 2%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.6%
Blake Veasley run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
98.6%
Brandon Cox run for 5 yds to the CArk 38Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-5
98.6%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
98.6%
Blake Veasley run for 11 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
98.6%
Taylor Reed run for 1 yd to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.6%
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd to the CArk 46Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
98.6%
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd to the CArk 47Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-4
98.3%
Matthew Spencer punt for 33 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:3998% → 98%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-2
98.3%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+21
98.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 21 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
98.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 56 yds to the CArk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
98.4%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the CArk 7Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.4%
Jeff Carr run for 3 yds to the CArk 4Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
98.4%
Rudolph, Mason rush for no gain to the UCA4 (Holland, D.J.;Smith, Tremon), PENALTY OSU holding (Salako, Victor) 10 yards to the UCA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
98.2%
Ben Grogan 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.2%
Dominique Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 7Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+1
98.2%
Taylor Reed run for 1 yd to the CArk 8Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+6
98.2%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 6 yds to the CArk 14Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
98.2%
Matthew Spencer punt for 41 yds, downed at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
98.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 26 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the CArk 29Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
98.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 8 yds to the CArk 21Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+21
98.1%
Chris Carson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.1%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 6 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+11
98.1%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dominique Thomas for 11 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.0%
Reed, Taylor pass incomplete to Smith, Desmond, PENALTY OSU offside defense (Daniels,Darrion) 5 yards to the UCA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+1
98.0%
Dominique Thomas run for 1 yd to the CArk 45Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
98.0%
Dominique Thomas run for 2 yds to the CArk 47Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
98.0%
Dominique Thomas run for 1 yd to the CArk 48Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
98.0%
Matthew Spencer punt for 38 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:5498% → 98%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
97.6%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
97.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 16 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
97.7%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
97.6%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon Sheperd, broken up by Tremon SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+6
97.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 6 yds to the CArk 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds, downed at the CArk 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
97.6%
Kelton Warren run for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 4Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+10
97.6%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 10 yds to the CArk 14Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
97.6%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Blake VeasleySimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
97.6%
Matthew Spencer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
97.3%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
97.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+15
97.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 15 yds to the CArk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
97.3%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Derek Floyd for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 47 Mason Rudolph fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+52
97.2%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Tremon Smith return for 37 yds to the OKLAST 16 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
96.9%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 15
50
-3
97.1%
Taylor Reed sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 47Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+2
97.2%
Dominique Thomas run for 2 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Jatavious WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Matthew Spencer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:3697% → 97%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
96.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 11 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
96.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 9 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+13
96.9%
Chris Carson run for 13 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
96.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 6 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-2
97.0%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 6
50
0
96.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell Ateman, broken up by Tremon Smith OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 6
50
-3
96.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 39 yds , Brandon Cox returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
96.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the CArk 13Similar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 5
OWN 13
+6
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 6 yds to the CArk 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
96.8%
Dominique Thomas run for 19 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.7%
Dominique Thomas run for 4 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
96.6%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dominique Thomas for 6 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
96.6%
Dominique Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the CArk 44Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+11
96.8%
Taylor Reed run for 11 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
96.5%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 8
50
+5
96.8%
Matthew Spencer punt for 38 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 5 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:5096% → 96%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
96.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 9 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
96.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
96.2%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
96.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 11 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
96.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+10
96.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for 10 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
96.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 4 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
96.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 43 yds, downed at the CArk 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 8Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.2%
Taylor Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
95.3%
Taylor Reed run for 3 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
95.4%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for 7 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+27
95.3%
Matthew Spencer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKLAST 24 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:4996% → 97%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
95.5%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+67
97.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 67 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:153% → 7%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Dominique Thomas run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
97.4%
Blake Gardner run for 2 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dominique Thomas for no gain to the CArk 29Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.5%
Spencer, Matt punt 48 yards to the OSU23, downed, PENALTY OSU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the UCA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.3%
Dominique Thomas run for 2 yds to the CArk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.2%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Justin Dickey for 3 yds to the CArk 39Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
97.2%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 12 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
97.0%
Taylor Reed sacked by Jimmy Bean for a loss of 6 yards to the CArk 45Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+1
97.4%
Jatavious Wilson run for 1 yd to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+15
97.4%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Brandon Cox for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Peterson) to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
93.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for 39 yds for a TD, (Taylor Reed pass to Zach Gougler for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:1894% → 96%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+35
94.4%
Rennie Childs run for 35 yds to the CArk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
94.8%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the CArk 22Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 9 yds to the CArk 13Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
94.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the CArk 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
94.8%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the CArk 10Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+9
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 9 yds to the CArk 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.9%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 3Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
94.8%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 5Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
94.7%
Rudolph, Mason pass complete to McCleskey,Jalen for 47 yards to the UCA0, clock 07:48, PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the OSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
95.7%
Ben Grogan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:456% → 5%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.4%
Dominique Thomas run for 5 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
94.2%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
94.2%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Brandon Cox for 3 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
94.1%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Jacquez McMillianSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
94.3%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (Lance Kloker) to the CArk 47Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+13
94.9%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Blake Veasley for 13 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.1%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Zach GouglerSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
94.1%
Blake Veasley run for 6 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
94.0%
Taylor Reed run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
94.7%
Blake Veasley run for no gain to the OKSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:4796% → 99%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
96.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeff Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+40
96.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 40 yds to the CArk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 31 yds for a TD CENTRAL ARK Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.9%
Jatavious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 24Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
97.9%
Taylor Reed run for 8 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.8%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Blake Gardner, broken up by Ashton LampkinSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Matthew Spencer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3999% → 100%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
99.0%
Brandon Sheperd run for 14 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.0%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+41
99.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 41 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Blake JarwinSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.1%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 20Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+14
99.0%
Rennie Childs run for 14 yds to the CArk 6Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
99.4%
Dominique Thomas run for 18 yds to the CArk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Desmond SmithSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Jatavious Wilson run for 4 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
99.4%
Reed, Taylor rush for no gain to the UCA41 (Clark, Trace), PENALTY OSU offside defense (Burton, Jordan) 5 yards to the UCA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
99.4%
Dominique Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 45Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Matthew Spencer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 18Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
99.5%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 14Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+15
99.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 15 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
99.5%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-10
99.5%
Walsh, J.W. rush for 6 yards to the OSU40 (Sharp, Garrett), PENALTY OSU holding (Lewis, Paul) 10 yards to the OSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
99.5%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Brandon Sheperd, broken up by Tremon SmithSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.6%
Jatavious Wilson run for 5 yds to the CArk 31Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
99.5%
Blake Veasley run for 3 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-1
99.6%
Dominique Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 33Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Matthew Spencer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.6%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jordan Frazier for 7 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.6%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.6%
Jeff Carr run for 9 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
99.6%
Rennie Childs run for 10 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
99.6%
Jeff Carr run for 23 yds to the CArk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.6%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the CArk 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:08
Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for 39 yds for a TD, (Taylor Reed pass to Zach Gougler for Two-Point Conversion)
-4.1
TD · Q4 14:53
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 31 yds for a TD CENTRAL ARK Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan PAT BLOCKED)
+2.9
TD · Q3 12:23
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 67 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com