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IOWA

Iowa 31 at Iowa State 17

ISU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:34 · Dillon Kidd punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−1.0Pregame prior−2.6Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:24: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:19: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +10.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:05: Matt VandeBerg 3 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +15.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:14: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 25 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +35.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:05: Jordan Canzeri run for 8 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +7.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44IOWA 4th & 10 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:07ISU 4th & 4 at IOWA 19, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07IOWA 4th & 20 at IOWA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:42ISU 4th & 1 at IOWA 49, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:01IOWA 4th & 2 at ISU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−8.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:34IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:39ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57IOWA 4th & 18 at IOWA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−4.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:29ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−4.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 23, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:12ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:24IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:05IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:14IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:05IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
43.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
43.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Dillon Kidd punt for 55 yds , Allen Lazard returns for no gain to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
43.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for 7 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+6
43.6%
Tyler Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
43.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
43.7%
Tyler Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+12
43.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
43.8%
Tyler Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-24
43.8%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Cole Fisher for a loss of 9 yards to the IOWAST 48 IOWA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 32
OWN 33
-10
43.5%
Richardson, Sam B. pass complete to Brown, Tyler for 11 yards to the ISU44 (Bazata, Nathan), PENALTY ISU holding (Dagel, Brock) 10 yards to the ISU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 42
OWN 23
0
43.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for no gain to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 42
OWN 23
0
43.0%
Colin Downing punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4255% → 55%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
44.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+24
44.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 24 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
44.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
44.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
44.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
44.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
44.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
44.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
44.9%
Marshall Koehn 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:3744% → 47%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.4%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
44.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for 4 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
44.7%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Bundrage, Quenton, PENALTY IOWA offside defense (Johnson, Jaleel) 5 yards to the ISU39, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
44.8%
Trever Ryen run for 10 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
45.4%
Montgomery, D'Vario pass intercepted by Mabin, Greg at the IOWA11, Mabin, Greg return to the IOWA43 (Boesen, Ben), PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Niemann, Ben) 15 yards to the IOWA36, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
45.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
45.9%
IOWA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
45.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 6 yds Dondre Daley fumbled, forced by Nate Meier,Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
45.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
47.3%
Cole Netten 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
45.4%
C.J. Beathard run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
46.4%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Jarnor Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 15Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+60
47.0%
Dillon Kidd punt for 50 yds, downed at the IOWAST 35 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Brown) to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5047% → 55%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
47.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 19 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+37
48.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 37 yds to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
49.5%
IOWA Penalty, personal foul (Desmond King) to the Iowa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.5%
Tyler Brown run for no gain to the Iowa 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
49.5%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Nate Meier for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
55.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
53.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 5 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
52.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
52.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
53.5%
Dillon Kidd punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5055% → 58%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
55.0%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
55.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 15 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
55.3%
Trever Ryen run for 11 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.4%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
56.4%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+7
55.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
58.4%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 4:1041% → 55%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-6
58.6%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 1Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 16
OWN 1
+44
58.7%
C.J. Beathard run for 44 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
56.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 19 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
55.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-1
54.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+13
55.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 13 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
54.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
54.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
45.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5851% → 64%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
51.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Trever Ryen for 53 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
55.1%
Joshua Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-6
55.0%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Ben Niemann for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+29
64.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF
12 plays · 93 yds · 2:1735% → 44%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
65.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+7
65.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+57
64.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 57 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
58.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 8 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
58.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-1
54.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+17
55.9%
Marshall Koehn run for 17 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.5%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
63.3%
Tyler Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
62.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.7%
Colin Downing punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:5138% → 56%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
62.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
60.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+11
61.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 11 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
60.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
59.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
43.9%
Matt VandeBerg 3 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
50.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 20 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
54.9%
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
54.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
51.1%
Colin Downing punt for 43 yds, downed at the Iowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
49.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
49.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
50.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
52.1%
Dillon Kidd punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
55.1%
Richardson, Sam B. rush for 1 yard to the ISU42 (Johnson, Jaleel), PENALTY ISU holding (Taiese, Wendell) 10 yards to the ISU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+8
52.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+2
53.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
52.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 47%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
49.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 8 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
48.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
49.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
49.0%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-12
49.7%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
52.7%
Dillon Kidd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:3557% → 52%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
56.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
55.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Desmond KingSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+10
53.1%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Wesley, Jauan, PENALTY IOWA holding (King, Desmond) 10 yards to the IOWA48, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
58.2%
Trever Ryen run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-9
58.1%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+2
52.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
51.5%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds , Desmond King returns for no gain to the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FUMBLE
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:0949% → 56%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
50.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 11 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-12
50.0%
Jonathan Parker run for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 22
OWN 5
+1
51.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 1 yd to the Iowa 6Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 21
OWN 6
+48
52.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 48 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
45.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+16
45.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 16 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
43.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
43.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+9
45.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
44.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+3
44.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the IowSt 7 Jordan Canzeri fumbled, forced by Darian Cotton, recovered by IowSt Jordan HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4056% → 56%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
55.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
56.5%
Tyler Brown run for no gain to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+8
54.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
56.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 17 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Tyler Brown run for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
57.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+34
56.1%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Desmond King returns for 34 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:5455% → 90%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
50
+4
45.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
45.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
46.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 7 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
45.2%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Jordan Walsh) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
47.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 5 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
45.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
45.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
9.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 25 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
17.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
17.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Desmond King return for 11 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:3992% → 99%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
8.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 17 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 8 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
2.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+1
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
1.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 25 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
-35.7
TD · Q3 10:05
Matt VandeBerg 3 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q2 2:19
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com