Try the model
LAM

Lamar 31 at Baylor 66

BAY
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadLAM aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreLAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:47 · Juan Carranco punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+46.9Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:34: Joe Minden 1 Yd Run (Alex Ball Kick) — LAM win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:51: Corey Coleman 61 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:04: Corey Coleman 34 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:23: Alex Ball 31 Yd Field Goal — LAM win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:33: Shock Linwood 7 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LAM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 2:51BAY 4th & 3 at LAM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:47LAM 4th & 8 at LAM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46LAM 4th & 12 at LAM 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:15LAM 4th & 3 at LAM 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55LAM 4th & 3 at LAM 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:15BAY 4th & 1 at LAM 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:09LAM 4th & 9 at LAM 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:58BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:09LAM 4th & 5 at LAM 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23LAM 4th & 11 at BAY 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:04LAM 4th & 12 at LAM 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:14BAY 4th & 7 at LAM 19, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:45BAY 4th & 4 at LAM 44, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:40BAY 4th & 13 at LAM 39, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9LAM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:50BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:36LAM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:17BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:07LAM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:32BAY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:34LAM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:51BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:35BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 14:04BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:33BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:28BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:40LAM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:04BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LAMDrive 1PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Kade Harrington run for 2 yds to the Lamar 32Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Carson Earp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Carson Earp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 5 yds to the Lamar 48Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 13 yds to the Lamar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 3 yds to the Lamar 31Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+7
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Lamar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds to the Lamar 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 9 yds to the Lamar 1Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Shock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 3TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:540% → 0%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.8%
Carson Earp pass complete to Kade Harrington for 3 yds to the Lamar 16Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
99.8%
Kade Harrington run for 3 yds to the Lamar 19Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+5
99.8%
Carson Earp pass complete to Michael Handy for 5 yds to the Lamar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
99.8%
Carson Earp run for 12 yds to the Lamar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.8%
Carson Earp pass complete to DeAndre Jennings for 11 yds to the Lamar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
99.8%
Carson Earp run for 25 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.8%
Emmitt Raleigh run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+13
99.7%
Carson Earp pass complete to Jayce Nelson for 13 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.7%
Kade Harrington run for 1 yd to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Kade Harrington 11 Yd Run (Alex Ball Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+8
99.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+31
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 31 yds to the Lamar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 9 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-1
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 35Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-1
99.6%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 36Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the Lamar 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:580% → 1%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Carson Earp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.6%
LAMAR Penalty, False Start (DeAndre Jennings) to the Lamar 31Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
99.5%
Carson Earp pass complete to Devonn Brown for 7 yds to the Lamar 38Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Carson Earp pass incomplete to Reggie BegeltonSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Juan Carranco punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 20 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 15 yds to the Lamar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.6%
Corey Coleman 42 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Kade Harrington run for no gain to the Lamar 33Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.5%
Carson Earp pass complete to Michael Handy for 3 yds to the Lamar 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-5
99.5%
LAMAR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lamar 31Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Carson Earp pass incomplete to Gratian GladneySimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Juan Carranco punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.5%
Seth Russell sacked by Logan Moss for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 36 Seth Russell fumbled, forced by Logan Moss, recovered by Lamar Omar Tebo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 9TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Joe Minden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+16
99.4%
Kade Harrington run for 16 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.4%
Joe Minden run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+17
99.3%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 17 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Kade Harrington 1 Yd Run (Alex Ball Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 7 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 3 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
99.1%
Russell, Seth pass incomplete to Cannon, KD, PENALTY BAYLOR offside 5 yards to the BAYLOR28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
99.1%
LAMAR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavier Bethany) to the Lamar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Lamar 44Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
99.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 8 yds to the Lamar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.2%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Lamar 31Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+10
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Lamar 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.4%
Corey Coleman 21 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Devin Chafin Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.3%
Kade Harrington run for 5 yds to the Lamar 35Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
99.3%
Kade Harrington run for 2 yds to the Lamar 37Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
99.3%
Joe Minden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
99.3%
Juan Carranco punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Xavier Bethany return for no gain to the Lamar 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.3%
Kade Harrington run for 4 yds to the Lamar 42Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
99.2%
Kade Harrington run for 5 yds to the Lamar 47Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-5
99.2%
LAMAR Penalty, False Start (DeAndre Jennings) to the Lamar 42Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+3
99.2%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 3 yds to the Lamar 45Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Juan Carranco punt for 53 yds, downed at the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.1%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-3
99.1%
Russell, Seth rush for 4 yards to the BAYLOR10, PENALTY BAYLOR holding 3 yards to the BAYLOR3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+5
99.1%
LAMAR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+3
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
99.0%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Seth Ellis return for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 15TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:011% → 2%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
98.9%
Kade Harrington run for 3 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+15
98.8%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 15 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Joe Minden 1 Yd Run (Alex Ball Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2998% → 99%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
98.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
98.9%
Corey Coleman 61 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · -30 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.9%
LAMAR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lamar 30Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
98.9%
Joe Minden run for 1 yd to the Lamar 31Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+4
98.8%
Kade Harrington run for 4 yds to the Lamar 35Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-15
98.8%
Minden, Joe pass incomplete to Nelson, Jayce, PENALTY LAMAR illegal block (Treadway, Bret) 15 yards to the LAMAR20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 25
OWN 20
-5
98.8%
LAMAR Penalty, False Start (Kade Harrington) to the Lamar 15Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 30
OWN 15
-10
98.8%
Joe Minden sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 10 yards to the Lamar 5 LAMAR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joe Minden) to the Lamar 5Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 40
OWN 5
0
98.9%
Juan Carranco punt for 38 yds, downed at the Lamar 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Lamar 40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
98.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the Lamar 34Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
98.6%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Lamar 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.7%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Lamar 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+18
98.7%
Devin Chafin run for 18 yds to the Lamar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
98.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Spencer Drango) to the Lamar 13Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
99.2%
Shock Linwood 13 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lamar 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4799% → 100%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Lamar 44Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+10
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Lamar 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
Corey Coleman 34 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Carson Earp pass complete to Kade Harrington for 4 yds to the Lamar 29Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.5%
Kade Harrington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 28Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.5%
Carson Earp pass complete to Reggie Begelton for a loss of 2 yards to the Lamar 26Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Juan Carranco punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-15
99.6%
Russell, Seth rush for 3 yards to the BAYLOR48, PENALTY BAYLOR illegal block (Fuller, Kyle) 15 yards to the BAYLOR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
LAMAR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 11
OWN 35
-5
99.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+48
99.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAYLOR 37 LAMAR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Lamar 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.5%
Emmitt Raleigh run for 4 yds to the Lamar 26Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Carson Earp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+1
99.5%
Carson Earp run for 1 yd to the Lamar 27Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Juan Carranco punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 5 yds to the Lamar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
99.6%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Rodney Randle return for 51 yds to the Bayl 0 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (Seth Russell) to the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 25FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:371% → 1%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.4%
Carson Earp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
99.4%
Carson Earp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
99.5%
Carson Earp pass incomplete to Reggie BegeltonSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
99.0%
Alex Ball 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Seth EllisSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jayce Nelson at the Lamar 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:231% → 1%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Carson Earp pass incomplete to Reggie BegeltonSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.0%
Carl Harris run for 6 yds to the Lamar 29Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+10
98.9%
Carl Harris run for 10 yds to the Lamar 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.9%
Carl Harris run for 13 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.9%
Carl Harris run for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
98.9%
Carson Earp pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.8%
Kade Harrington run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-2
98.7%
Kade Harrington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35 Kade Harrington fumbled, forced by Shawn Oakman, recovered by Bayl Aiavion EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2799% → 100%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.1%
Shock Linwood run for 17 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Lamar 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Lamar 13Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
99.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Lamar 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Shock Linwood 7 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
Carl Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lamar 23Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
99.7%
Carson Earp run for 4 yds to the Lamar 27Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
99.7%
Carson Earp pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 13 yds to the Lamar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.7%
Emmitt Raleigh run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lamar 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Emmitt Raleigh run for no gain to the Lamar 38Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Carson Earp pass incomplete to Reggie BegeltonSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Juan Carranco punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+23
99.8%
Terence Williams run for 23 yds to the Lamar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.8%
Terence Williams run for 13 yds to the Lamar 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to LaQuan McGowanSimilar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Lamar 19Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey Coleman, broken up by Seth EllisSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Chris Callahan 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 31INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 11 yds to the Lamar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
100.0%
Joe Minden run for 1 yd to the Lamar 37Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
100.0%
LAMAR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lamar 32Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-7
100.0%
Joe Minden pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Lamar 46Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+46
100.0%
Johnny Jefferson 46 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 33TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
100.0%
Emmitt Raleigh run for 3 yds to the Lamar 19Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
Emmitt Raleigh run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 18Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+15
100.0%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 15 yds to the Lamar 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Joe Minden pass complete to Gratian Gladney for 8 yds to the Lamar 41Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
100.0%
Joe Minden pass complete to Reggie Begelton for 8 yds to the Lamar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
100.0%
Carl Harris run for 31 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Brendan Langley 20 Yd pass from Joe Minden (Alex Ball Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 34TD
18 plays · 77 yds · 5:26100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Koby Couron and Dedrick Garner for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+17
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Davion Hall for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
50
-10
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Dedrick Garner for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+10
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chris Platt for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 10
50
+6
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Lamar 44Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+8
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chris Johnson for 8 yds to the Lamar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Lamar 34 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Lamar 44Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 18
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Lamar 40Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lamar 39Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 13
OPP 39
+15
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 15 yds to the Lamar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Lamar 21Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Lamar 17Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Lamar 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
100.0%
Jarrett Stidham 13 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 35END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
100.0%
Keegan Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Lamar 23Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+10
100.0%
Keegan Mitchell run for 10 yds to the Lamar 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Keegan Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lamar 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:34
Joe Minden 1 Yd Run (Alex Ball Kick)
-0.8
TD · Q3 2:33
Shock Linwood 7 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q2 3:51
Corey Coleman 61 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com