2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:11 · LA Ramsby run for no gain to the GeoSo 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:54: Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 41 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — GASO win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:08: Josh Lambert 32 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:04: Josh Lambert 22 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:12: Rushel Shell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:19: Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 10:49GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 8:05WVU 4th & 7 at GASO 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call97.8%89% to makePunt97.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:38WVU 4th & 1 at GASO 17, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%71% to convertField goal97.6%−0.180% to makePunt97.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:57GASO 4th & 27 at GASO 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 14:08WVU 4th & 1 at GASO 14, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%−0.284% to makePunt96.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:08GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 13Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:00WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 35, up 13Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:11GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 29, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:12GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 3:04WVU 4th & 2 at GASO 5, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%−0.392% to makePunt95.0%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:04WVU 4th & 9 at GASO 39, up 16Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal97.2%36% to makePuntTheir call97.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:24WVU 4th & 6 at GASO 42, up 16Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%40% to convertField goal96.6%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call96.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:06GASO 4th & 5 at WVU 30, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%41% to convertField goal1.4%−<0.156% to makePunt1.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:19GASO 4th & 9 at WVU 28, down 30Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.3%60% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 13:19GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 44, down 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:49WVU 4th & 1 at GASO 5, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%67% to convertField goal99.8%−0.292% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:26GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 32, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:54WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:12WVU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:19WVU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:23WVU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:26WVU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kj Dillon) to the WVirg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD10 plays · 87 yds · 4:0698% → 98%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-5
98.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Wendell Smallwood) to the WVirg 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
98.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 10 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+41
98.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 41 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4FG5 plays · 60 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+57
97.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 57 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FUMBLE4 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:59
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-6
97.7%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 26 Favian Upshaw fumbled, recovered by WVirg Karl JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
GASODrive 7PUNT14 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
97.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (Matt Breida) to the GeoSo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8FG5 plays · 66 yds · 1:0297% → 98%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+57
96.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jovon Durante for 57 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+10
97.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 10 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:393% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -17 yds · 0:1397% → 97%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-19
97.1%
Skyler Howard sacked by Bernard Dawson for a loss of 19 yards to the GeoSo 48 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Skyler Howard) to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 29
OPP 48
0
97.1%
William Crest Jr. pass incomplete to Shelton Gibson, broken up by Darrius WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14FG7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2497% → 97%
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+47
96.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 47 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WVUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
GASODrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
GASODrive 18INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
WVUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
GASODrive 20INT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted Karl Joseph return for no gain to the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21TD3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4997% → 99%
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+19
96.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 19 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 53 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
98.5%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Bj Johnson for 12 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3099% → 100%
GASODrive 24INT10 plays · 47 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:19
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+17
99.8%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Derek Keaton for 17 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+15
99.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Christian Brown) to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-4
99.7%
Favian Upshaw sacked by Noble Nwachukwu for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 28 Favian Upshaw fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Jeff Ward , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 9
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted Karl Joseph return for no gain to the WVirg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25TD6 plays · 85 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
GASODrive 26DOWNS11 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27TD11 plays · 41 yds · 5:21100% → 100%
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Donte Thomas-Williams run for no gain to the GeoSo 2 Donte Thomas-Williams fumbled, forced by Nardo Govan, recovered by WVirg Donte Thomas-WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 28PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:12
Rushel Shell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
+2
TD · Q3 4:19
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
+1
FG · Q2 14:08
Josh Lambert 32 yd FG GOOD
+0.6