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SHSU

Sam Houston 45 at Texas Tech 59

TTU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:49 · Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+21.7Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:44: Donavan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK) TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — SHSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 88%).
  2. TD · Q2 2:23: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 53 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +7.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:52: Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 29 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK) — SHSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:14: Jared Johnson pass intercepted for a TD J.J. Gaines return for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK) — TTU win probability +7.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SHSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:49TTU 4th & 14 at SHSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:43SHSU 4th & 16 at SHSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54SHSU 4th & 11 at TTU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:24SHSU 4th & 16 at SHSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:30SHSU 4th & 10 at TTU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:14SHSU 4th & 2 at TTU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:59TTU 4th & 8 at SHSU 10, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:32TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:09TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 3, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:06TTU 4th & 21 at SHSU 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:54TTU 4th & 2 at SHSU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:54TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:51SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:54TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:53SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:24TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:44SHSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:23TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:52SHSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:14TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 14:14TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:09TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:06SHSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:53SHSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0675% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 19 yds Jakeem Grant fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 14 yds to the SmHou 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
75.4%
Justin Stockton run for 7 yds to the SmHou 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+8
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the SmHou 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 7 yds to the SmHou 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Mikell EveretteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+11
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the SmHou 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
75.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 5 yds to the SmHou 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the SmHou 3Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.9%
Jakeem Grant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 3:0324% → 27%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
75.6%
Jared Johnson run for 8 yds to the SmHou 15Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+7
75.6%
Donavan Williams run for 7 yds to the SmHou 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
75.6%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Gerald ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
75.6%
SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, false start (Bridge Blount) to the SmHou 17Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
75.6%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to LaDarius BrownSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+15
75.7%
Jared Johnson run for 15 yds to the SmHou 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
75.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Grant Finney for 4 yds to the SmHou 36Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+14
75.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
50
+19
75.4%
Jared Johnson run for 19 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.3%
Jared Johnson run for no gain to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+17
75.3%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 17 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
73.3%
Ridgeway Frank run for 14 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:0274% → 73%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
74.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.2%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
74.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
74.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
74.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the SmHou 46Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+7
74.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 7 yds to the SmHou 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
74.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 1 yd to the SmHou 38Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
74.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Cameron Batson, broken up by A.J. DavisSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 9
OPP 38
-5
73.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SmHou 43Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
73.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
73.3%
Donavan Williams run for 1 yd to the SmHou 21 SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Sam Hardy) to the SmHou 11Similar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+5
73.4%
Jared Johnson run for 5 yds to the SmHou 16Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-2
73.4%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Donavan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the SmHou 14Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
73.6%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Gerald ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+4
73.9%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 49 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 4 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:1374% → 77%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
73.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
73.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+64
76.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 64 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 8 yds to the SmHou 33Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
75.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 11 yds to the SmHou 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
75.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 13 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
75.2%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
75.5%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Deon HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
75.8%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Yedidiah LouisSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
76.3%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 31 yds, downed at the TexTc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
76.5%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+27
76.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Alfonzo McMillian return for 27 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3225% → 30%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
74.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 11 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.1%
Donavan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2973% → 78%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+24
72.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 24 yds to the SmHou 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
73.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the SmHou 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
74.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 13 yds to the SmHou 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
74.3%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the SmHou 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
74.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Quinton White for 2 yds to the SmHou 8Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
77.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.5%
Corey Avery run for 8 yds to the SmHou 33Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
75.7%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the SmHou 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Gerald ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
76.3%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to LaDarius BrownSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-6
76.8%
Jared Johnson sacked by Branden Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the SmHou 31Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+5
77.3%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 62 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the TexTc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
76.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+4
76.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
76.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for no gain to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 12
-6
75.9%
Taylor Symmank punt for 60 yds , Gerald Thomas returns for a loss of 6 yards to the SmHou 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:1623% → 26%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.0%
Jared Johnson run for no gain to the SmHou 22Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+47
77.1%
Donavan Williams run for 47 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
74.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 8 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-44
74.6%
Johnson, Jared rush for no gain to the TTU23 (Jenkins, Malik), PENALTY SHSU holding (Riser, Curtis) 44 yards to the SHSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 46
OWN 33
+36
77.0%
Jalen Overstreet run for 36 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
75.6%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to LaDarius BrownSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
73.9%
Luc Swimberghe 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2919% → 31%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.6%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 6 yds to the SmHou 31Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.1%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 3 yds to the SmHou 34Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
80.1%
Donavan Williams run for 4 yds to the SmHou 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.0%
Jared Johnson run for 5 yds to the SmHou 43Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
79.5%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 4 yds to the SmHou 47Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
79.4%
Jalen Overstreet run for 4 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
79.2%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 28 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
79.2%
Jared Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+16
79.2%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 16 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.3%
Donavan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK) TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 1:2173% → 82%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
73.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 14 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
73.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
73.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 9 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
74.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
74.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+53
82.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 53 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3118% → 31%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Yedidiah LouisSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe sacked by Zach Barnes and Marcus Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SmHou 24Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
82.8%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Derreck Edwards for 13 yds to the SmHou 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
81.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Derreck Edwards for 8 yds to the SmHou 45Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+24
80.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 9 yds to the TEXASTECH 46 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (J.J. Gaines) to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
79.6%
Jared Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
79.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Remus Bulmer for 1 yd to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+29
69.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 29 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:3873% → 84%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
73.1%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+28
74.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 28 yds to the SmHou 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
75.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 5 yds to the SmHou 29Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
84.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
82.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SmHou 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19INT TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4618% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.0%
Donavan Williams run for 7 yds to the SmHou 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
81.2%
Donavan Williams run for 5 yds to the SmHou 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+47
88.5%
Jared Johnson pass intercepted for a TD J.J. Gaines return for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
89.0%
Corey Avery run for 18 yds to the SmHou 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
88.3%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
50
0
87.5%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 3
50
+1
88.0%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Corey Avery for 1 yd to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+1
88.2%
Corey Avery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5392% → 96%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+24
91.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 24 yds to the SmHou 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
92.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 16 yds to the SmHou 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 20
OPP 22
0
92.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Branden JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+3
92.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 13 yds to the SmHou 9 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SmHou 19Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 17
OPP 19
+4
92.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the SmHou 15Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+5
92.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the SmHou 10Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
95.7%
Michael Barden 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:335% → 4%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.0%
Jeremiah Briscoe run for 7 yds to the SmHou 32Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Jared Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SmHou 26 Jared Johnson fumbled, recovered by SmHou Sam Hardy , return for no gain to the SmHou 26Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
95.6%
Lachlan Edwards punt for 47 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 9 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
96.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gerald Thomas at the SmHou 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24FUMBLE
8 plays · 60 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
96.0%
Donavan Williams run for 2 yds to the SmHou 17Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
95.9%
Jeremiah Briscoe run for 9 yds to the SmHou 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
95.9%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 4 yds to the SmHou 30Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Yedidiah Louis for no gain to the SmHou 30Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+9
95.8%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Yedidiah Louis for 9 yds to the SmHou 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Gerald ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+18
95.7%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 18 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
95.7%
Donavan Williams run for 18 yds to the TexTc 30 Donavan Williams fumbled, forced by Jah'Shawn Johnson, recovered by TexTc Mike Mitchell , return for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:0697% → 100%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
97.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 17 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
97.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Jared Kaster) to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 15
OWN 0
0
97.0%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Grant, Jakeem for 26 yards to the SHSU32 (Davis, A. J.), PENALTY TTU illegal block off-setting, PENALTY SHSU roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+10
97.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 10 yds to the SmHou 48Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+10
97.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 10 yds to the SmHou 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
97.2%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the SmHou 29Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
97.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the SmHou 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
97.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 9 yds to the SmHou 18Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
97.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the SmHou 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
97.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the SmHou 4Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 26INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Corey Avery run for 7 yds to the SmHou 32Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Derreck Edwards for 5 yds to the SmHou 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
99.8%
Corey Avery run for 20 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.8%
Corey Avery run for 11 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.8%
Remus Bulmer run for 1 yd to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+13
99.9%
Jalen Overstreet run for 13 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
99.8%
Jared Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass intercepted Thierry Nguema return for no gain to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 6
-3
99.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Baylen Brown) to the TexTc 3Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+3
99.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 47 yds , Gerald Thomas returns for 3 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:140% → 1%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Corey Avery for 9 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 4 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Davion Davis for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+24
99.9%
Jared Johnson run for 24 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.7%
Donavan Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the SmHou 40 for a 1ST down SAM HOUSTON ST Penalty, personal foul (P.J. Hall) to the SmHou 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the SmHou 41Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+12
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 12 yds to the SmHou 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Le'Raven Clark) to the SmHou 34Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 15
OPP 34
-6
99.1%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 6 yards to the SmHou 40Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 21
OPP 40
0
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 21
OPP 40
0
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald Davis TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 21
OPP 40
+35
99.0%
Taylor Symmank punt for 40 yds for a touchback TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 30FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.1%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Derreck Edwards for 18 yds to the SmHou 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.1%
Jeremiah Briscoe run for 1 yd to the SmHou 44Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
99.1%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Collin Rison for 12 yds Collin Rison fumbled, forced by Tevin Madison, recovered by TexTc J.J. GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Cameron Batson for 12 yds to the SmHou 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the SmHou 41Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
Quinton White run for 5 yds to the SmHou 36Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
99.2%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brad Pearson, broken up by Eric AgbarojiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 32TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:231% → 3%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to LaDarius Brown, broken up by Paul BanksSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.4%
Jalen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the SmHou 41Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+21
99.4%
Jalen Overstreet run for 21 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Yedidiah Louis for 2 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Yedidiah Louis, broken up by Dakota AllenSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+16
99.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Derreck Edwards for 16 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.2%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Grant Finney for 9 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+9
99.2%
Jalen Overstreet run for 9 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.2%
Jalen Overstreet run for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Donavan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
98.5%
Quinton White run for 1 yd to the SmHou 40Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
98.5%
Quinton White run for 9 yds to the SmHou 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
98.5%
Quinton White run for 6 yds to the SmHou 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:52
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Davion Davis for 29 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 3:44
Donavan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luc Swimberghe KICK) TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-9.9
TD · Q2 0:14
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Barden KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com