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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:10 · Austin Seibert punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:32: Samaje Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:21: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:06: Robert Stein 26 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:56: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 76 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:11: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9AKR made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
- Q1 15:00OU 4th & 16 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 13:30AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 12:01OU 4th & 19 at OU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q1 10:21AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 8:23OU 4th & 10 at OU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q1 6:45AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 3:58OU 4th & 6 at AKR 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.9%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%79% to makePunt96.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:29AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q1 2:10OU 4th & 10 at OU 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q2 12:50AKR 4th & 4 at OU 4, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%−0.193% to makePunt3.7%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:50OU 4th & 4 at OU 37, up 3Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:25AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 5:32AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 47, down 10Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:32AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 0:06AKR 4th & 9 at OU 9, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call3.3%89% to makePunt2.2%−1.1average punt
- Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 11:56AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 10:49OU 4th & 1 at AKR 49, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:11AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 7 at midfield, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:49OU 4th & 2 at OU 40, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:29OU 4th & 8 at AKR 23, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%70% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:29AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 17, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 5:32OU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:21OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:56OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:36OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 15 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 12:01
3RD & 24
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 5 yds to the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:21
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for no gain to the Okla 20 OKLAHOMA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Okla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:23
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 51 yds , Imani Davis returns for no gain to the Akron 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 6:45
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+12
98.2%
Zach Paul punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 28 , Sterling Shepard returns for 12 yds to the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FG6 plays · 54 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
98.0%
AKRON Penalty, personal foul (John Senter) to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
98.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 35 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
98.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 4 yds to the Akron 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:292% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 2:10
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
97.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 49 yds · 3:063% → 3%
OUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-2
97.1%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:25
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+9
97.1%
Zach Paul punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 40 , Sterling Shepard returns for 9 yds to the Okla 22 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD14 plays · 60 yds · 4:1297% → 97%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
96.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 6 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+16
96.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 16 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
96.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 6 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+9
96.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 9 yds to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
96.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 8 yds to the Akron 4Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
96.0%
AKRON Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0897% → 98%
AKRDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 0:492% → 2%
Q2 1:32
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.5%
Zach Paul punt for 55 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 11 yds to the Okla 31 Sterling Shepard fumbled, forced by Cory Morrow, recovered by Akron Christian AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17FG7 plays · 22 yds · 1:122% → 3%
OUDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
97.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
97.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Jerome Lane for 6 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+35
97.0%
Zach Paul punt for 40 yds, downed at the OKLAHOMA 19 AKRON Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Okla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD1 play · 76 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 76 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds , Joe Mixon returns for no gain to the Okla 27 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
98.9%
AKRON Penalty, personal foul (Darryl Monroe) to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 4 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+19
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 19 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD9 plays · 93 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+26
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 26 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery Mead, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
50
+20
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 20 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 9 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 13 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q3 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, personal foul (Hatari Byrd) to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+10
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Mark Andrews for 10 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Daniel Brooks for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27FUMBLE4 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+13
99.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Michael Means Jr. for 13 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-4
99.9%
Michael Means Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 25 Michael Means Jr. fumbled, forced by Charles Walker, recovered by Okla Jordan WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-5
99.9%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Charles Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30INT12 plays · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 4 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+12
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Mark Andrews for 12 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-15
99.9%
Knight, Trevor pass complete to Mead, Jeffery for 24 yards to the AKRON4, out-of-bounds (SCOTT, DeAndre), PENALTY OU personal foul (Mead, Jeffery) 15 yards to the AKRON43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+19
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Mark Andrews for 19 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted, touchback. DeAndre Scott return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 31END OF GAME8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:56
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 76 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 2:21
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 5:32
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+1.2