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TEX

Texas 3 at Notre Dame 38

ND
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:54 · Michael Dickson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+10.4Pregame prior+14.1Score differential+3.6Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:29: Will Fuller 16 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:02: Josh Adams 14 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +4.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 7:53: Justin Yoon 38 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +3.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:36: Nick Rose 41 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +3.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:50: Will Fuller 66 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 11:09ND 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:31TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10ND 4th & 8 at ND 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:53ND 4th & 1 at TEX 20, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−1.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:54TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:04ND 4th & 16 at TEX 40, up 17
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 9 at ND 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:59ND 4th & 13 at TEX 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:36TEX 4th & 9 at ND 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:18TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:16TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:55TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:25ND 4th & 10 at ND 44, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:50TEX 4th & 8 at ND 47, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:29ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:02ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:50ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:00ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:46ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4673% → 73%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.2%
Torii Hunter Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
73.1%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
72.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 17 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Aliz JonesSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
73.0%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
72.8%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Durham Smythe for 6 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-4
72.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Nick Martin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 5
50
0
72.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5928% → 28%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
72.4%
Armanti Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
72.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
72.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
72.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 28 yds, downed at the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1873% → 75%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
72.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
72.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 6 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
72.6%
Tarean Folston run for 15 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
72.7%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 13 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
72.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Steve Elmer) to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
72.4%
Malik Zaire run for 2 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+2
72.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 2 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
74.6%
Will Fuller 16 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2526% → 26%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
73.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
73.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
73.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 43Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
74.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 52 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 3:4074% → 80%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
74.2%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+13
74.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 13 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
74.5%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+15
74.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
74.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
75.2%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+19
75.3%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 19 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
75.5%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 29 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Naashon Hughes) to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
79.9%
Josh Adams 14 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1922% → 21%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
78.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 11 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
78.3%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+10
78.2%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
78.0%
Heard, Jerrod rush for 3 yards to the TEXAS48, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Flowers, Sedrick) 10 yards to the TEXAS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+6
78.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
78.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
79.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Johnathan GraySimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+5
79.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 42 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 5 yds to the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1380% → 81%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
80.2%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 20 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
80.9%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+9
81.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 2
50
-6
81.1%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
80.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds , Daje Johnson returns for no gain to the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4620% → 19%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
80.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-4
79.9%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-8
80.9%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Jaylon Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 17
OWN 1
0
81.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2283% → 85%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
82.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+9
82.5%
Malik Zaire run for 9 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
82.7%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
81.5%
Malik Zaire run for 5 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+38
84.7%
Justin Yoon 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3616% → 15%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
83.7%
Daje Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-8
82.6%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Max Redfield and James Onwualu for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
84.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4486% → 88%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
85.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 13 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
86.6%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-3
86.7%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+14
86.6%
Malik Zaire run for 14 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
87.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
88.6%
Malik Zaire run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-12
88.3%
Malik Zaire sacked by Peter Jinkens for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
87.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:5214% → 14%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
86.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+20
86.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 20 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
50
0
85.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
50
+27
85.5%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass complete to Foreman, Armanti for loss of 12 yards to the TEXAS38, PENALTY NOTREDAME face mask (Shumate, Elijah) 27 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
84.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+1
85.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
86.3%
Nick Rose 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0912% → 12%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
87.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-3
87.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 9
OWN 25
-3
88.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 55 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 17 C.J. Sanders fumbled, forced by Kris Boyd, recovered by NDame Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3088% → 91%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
87.8%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 25 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
88.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 21 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
89.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 8 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
90.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
90.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 8 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-7
91.5%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-4
91.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
90.9%
Justin Yoon 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FG
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:1411% → 14%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+48
89.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 48 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
87.7%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
87.9%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
89.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
86.1%
Nick Rose 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:3388% → 97%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
88.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
87.1%
Malik Zaire run for 7 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
87.5%
C.J. Prosise run for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
88.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+66
96.9%
Will Fuller 66 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:124% → 3%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
95.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
95.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-15
95.7%
Daje Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 21 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Sedrick Flowers) to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
96.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:1097% → 100%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
97.0%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 15 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
97.8%
Amir Carlisle run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
97.9%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
98.0%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Josh Adams 25 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
99.7%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Romeo Okwara for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 21
OWN 12
+3
99.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+2
99.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
99.7%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 30 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.7%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 35 C.J. Prosise fumbled, recovered by NDame C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Tyler LuatuaSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+20
99.8%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Corey Robinson for 20 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 7 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
99.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Quenton Nelson) to the Texas 8Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Chris Brown 6 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.9%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 21
-3
99.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 56 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 5:14100% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
99.8%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 3 yds to the Texas 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
99.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 10 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+13
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 13 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Andrew Beck for 10 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+24
100.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 9 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Derick Roberson) to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:50
Will Fuller 66 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Justin Yoon Kick)
+9
TD · Q1 1:02
Josh Adams 14 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+4.4
FG · Q2 7:53
Justin Yoon 38 Yd Field Goal
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com