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SDST

South Dakota State 41 at Kansas 38

KU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadSDST aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreSDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:42 · Brady Hale punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+12.5Home team on offense−21.4Score differential−8.7Garbage-time factor−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:39: Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 16 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK) — SDST win probability +11.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:12: Ke'aun Kinner run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK) — KU win probability +16.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 1:04: Jay Carlson 24 yd FG GOOD — SDST win probability +11.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:18: Isaac Wallace run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK) — SDST win probability +26.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:18: Montell Cozart pass complete to Kent Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK) — KU win probability +22.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SDST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:44SDST 4th & 8 at KU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:28KU 4th & 1 at SDST 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30KU 4th & 6 at KU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:38KU 4th & 1 at SDST 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−2.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38KU 4th & 1 at SDST 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−1.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:08SDST 4th & 6 at SDST 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:20KU 4th & 3 at SDST 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42SDST 4th & 17 at SDST 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:26SDST 4th & 13 at SDST 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:12SDST 4th & 10 at SDST 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:11KU 4th & 6 at KU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:39SDST 4th & 6 at KU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:04SDST 4th & 3 at KU 7, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%−2.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−16.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00KU 4th & 1 at SDST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−5.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−8.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:18KU 4th & 5 at SDST 5, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−14.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:18SDST 4th & 5 at KU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−12.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:51SDST 4th & 9 at SDST 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:09SDST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:57KU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:33SDST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:39SDST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:38SDST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:14KU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:31KU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:12KU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:18SDST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:18KU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSTDrive 1FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:1626% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.0%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+60
74.0%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 60 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
74.0%
Brady Mengarelli run for 8 yds to the Kans 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-6
74.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
74.0%
Zach Lujan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
73.4%
Jay Carlson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2INT
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:1173% → 73%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
73.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 20Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+3
73.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 3 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+35
73.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 35 yds to the SDkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
73.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Kent Taylor for 15 yds to the SDkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
73.7%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDkSt 32Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+9
73.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 23Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
73.7%
Kinner,K. rush for 3 yards to the SDSU20 (Jesse Bobbit), PENALTY KU holding (Johnson,B.) 10 yards to the SDSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+10
73.5%
Montell Cozart run for 10 yds to the SDkSt 23Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
73.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 18Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
72.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the SDkSt 16Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+53
73.0%
Montell Cozart pass intercepted Dallas Brown return for 53 yds to the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 3TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:4229% → 31%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
71.5%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
69.2%
Brady Mengarelli run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2428% → 34%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.9%
Brady Mengarelli run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
71.5%
Brady Mengarelli run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.5%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor WesleySimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
71.6%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Trevor Wesley for 20 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
71.3%
Isaac Wallace run for 5 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-5
71.2%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 42Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
71.3%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 9 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
71.2%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
66.4%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 29 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Jay Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
67.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
67.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ben JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
67.0%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Nick MearsSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+2
66.7%
Eric Kahn punt for 49 yds , Je Ryan Butler returns for 2 yds to the SDkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:0033% → 49%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
66.8%
KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
66.2%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Cam Jones for 7 yds to the SDkSt 44Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
66.0%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
65.9%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
50
+5
65.9%
Isaac Wallace run for 5 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+11
66.1%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 11 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
65.8%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, false start (Isaac Wallace) to the Kans 39Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+13
66.0%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Trevor Wesley for 13 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+10
62.2%
Isaac Wallace run for 10 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
62.2%
Isaac Wallace run for no gain to the Kans 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
62.2%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor WesleySimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
51.2%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 16 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
54.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
54.6%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+4
54.3%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the Kans 29 Montell Cozart fumbled, forced by Nick Mears, recovered by SDkSt Jesse BobbitSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:1451% → 58%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.5%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
42.1%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Brady Mengarelli for 29 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:2446% → 49%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Kent TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.5%
Montell Cozart run for 12 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.5%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 4 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
47.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
47.4%
Montell Cozart run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 45Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
47.7%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
47.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 5 yds to the SDkSt 41Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+5
47.4%
De'Andre Mann run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
47.7%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 34Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
48.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 2 yds to the SDkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
47.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 5 yds to the SDkSt 27Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
47.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
48.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 26Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+7
47.9%
Montell Cozart run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 19Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
49.2%
Tre' Parmalee run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
42.5%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 25Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
42.5%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 27Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
42.7%
Zach Lujan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+56
43.3%
Brady Hale punt for 56 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:1544% → 39%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
44.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+9
44.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr for 9 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
45.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr for 6 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
45.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
46.0%
Montell Cozart run for 5 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+23
46.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 23 yds to the SDkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
47.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 30Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
47.8%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 27Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+2
47.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 2 yds to the SDkSt 25Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
39.4%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:3169% → 67%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
31.4%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 26 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
29.6%
Zach Lujan sacked by Ben Goodman and Daniel Wise for a loss of 7 yards to the SDkSt 44Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
29.2%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Brady MengarelliSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
29.5%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Jake Wieneke, broken up by Fish SmithsonSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
33.3%
Brady Hale punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
36.7%
Montell Cozart run for 10 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.9%
Cozart,M. rush for 15 yards to the KU40 (Nick Farina), PENALTY KU holding (Haughton,K.) 10 yards to the KU15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2935% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Joshua Stanford for 7 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
36.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Joshua Stanford for 12 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
37.5%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
37.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 11 yds to the SDkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
38.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 12 yds to the SDkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
38.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+25
39.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Darious Crawley for 25 yds to the SDkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.1%
Montell Cozart run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 3Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
44.3%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 15 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Daniel Wise) to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
42.3%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
42.3%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor WesleySimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
42.8%
Zach Lujan sacked by Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SDkSt 49Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
45.3%
Brady Hale punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:1541% → 63%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
41.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+39
41.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Darious Crawley for 39 yds to the SDkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.6%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
44.4%
Montell Cozart run for 20 yds to the SDkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
46.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ben JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
62.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0046% → 43%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.2%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Dallas GoedertSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
54.8%
Brady Mengarelli run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 44Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
52.9%
Brady Mengarelli run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
52.4%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Connor Landberg, broken up by Tyrone Miller Jr.Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Connor LandbergSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
53.8%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor WesleySimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
56.6%
Brady Hale punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
56.4%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to De'Andre Mann, broken up by Cole LangerSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
56.3%
De'Andre Mann run for 4 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
54.7%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Tre' ParmaleeSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
54.0%
Eric Kahn punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 20FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 6:2049% → 62%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
51.5%
Isaac Wallace run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
51.4%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Connor Landberg for 7 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
50.7%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 9 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+10
50.3%
Isaac Wallace run for 10 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
49.1%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, personal foul (Dylan Seiter) to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
50.7%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
50.3%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor WesleySimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
51.3%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+11
51.4%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 11 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
47.1%
Isaac Wallace run for 7 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
47.1%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Isaac Wallace for 2 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
48.7%
Isaac Wallace run for 5 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
47.1%
Brady Mengarelli run for 5 yds to the Kans 9Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
47.1%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the Kans 7Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
48.8%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Connor LandbergSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
37.7%
Jay Carlson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:4646% → 49%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
46.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
47.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 21 yds to the SDkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.8%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ke'aun KinnerSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
50.6%
Ryan Schadler run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
49.4%
Montell Cozart run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
48.3%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
52.9%
Montell Cozart run for no gain to the SDkSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
52.6%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
52.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+6
52.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 6 yds to the SDkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
52.9%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.9%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Kent TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
44.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 5Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
48.7%
Nick Bartolotta 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0057% → 90%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.1%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Isaac Wallace for 6 yds to the SDkSt 31Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
41.0%
Isaac Wallace run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
40.3%
Isaac Wallace run for 16 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
38.7%
Isaac Wallace run for 12 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
36.9%
Isaac Wallace run for 3 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
36.3%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Trevor Wesley, broken up by Tyrone Miller Jr.Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
39.4%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+23
42.7%
Zach Lujan pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 23 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
36.3%
Isaac Wallace run for 3 yds to the Kans 3Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.3%
Isaac Wallace run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:5612% → 38%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
12.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 8 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
13.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
13.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
13.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 4 yds De'Andre Mann fumbled, forced by Je Ryan Butler, recovered by Kans Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+35
13.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 35 yds to the KANSAS 21 for a 1ST down SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
17.2%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 20Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+9
17.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
17.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 10Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
17.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 5Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-5
16.1%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (Larry Mazyck) to the SDkSt 10Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
38.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Kent Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:2779% → 89%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
20.6%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 29 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Daniel Wise) to the SDkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
18.1%
Isaac Wallace run for no gain to the SDkSt 44Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
10.9%
Zach Lujan run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 48Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-3
11.2%
Zach Lujan sacked by Ben Goodman and Daniel Wise for a loss of 3 yards to the SDkSt 45Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+26
10.7%
Brady Hale punt for 40 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for 26 yds to the Kans 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 28%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
21.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 4 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
22.4%
Montell Cozart run for 2 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+20
21.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Derrick Neal for 20 yds to the SDkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
30.6%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 34Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
27.8%
Corey King run for no gain to the SDkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-27.8
TD · Q4 6:18
Isaac Wallace run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Carlson KICK)
-26
TD · Q4 2:18
Montell Cozart pass complete to Kent Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Bartolotta KICK)
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com