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OKST

Oklahoma State 24 at Central Michigan 13

CMU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:37 · Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−40.5Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:20: J.W. Walsh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +2.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:17: Cooper Rush run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:38: Mason Rudolph run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +11.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 13:57: Ron Coluzzi punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 17 — OKST win probability +5.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:20: Marcell Ateman 18 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +10.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:37OKST 4th & 5 at CMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40OKST 4th & 4 at CMU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51CMU 4th & 11 at OKST 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:13CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:31OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01CMU 4th & 12 at OKST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:12OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:20CMU 4th & 9 at OKST 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 32, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:12OKST 4th & 5 at CMU 25, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:57CMU 4th & 12 at OKST 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:12CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 27, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:28OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:03CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14OKST 4th & 6 at CMU 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:20OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:17CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:38OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:20OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0791% → 90%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.9%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
9.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 9 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
9.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 5 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
9.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeff Carr for 6 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
9.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+2
9.6%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+8
9.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 8 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
9.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
10.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1210% → 11%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
10.4%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+3
10.5%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Tre Flowers return for 3 yds to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0890% → 89%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
10.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
10.4%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
10.7%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
10.8%
Ben Grogan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 6:2611% → 15%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
11.0%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
11.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+22
11.2%
Cooper Rush run for 22 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
12.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 11 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
12.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
12.7%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+14
12.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 14 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
13.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
13.5%
Mark Chapman run for 4 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
13.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 5 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
13.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+4
14.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
14.4%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
14.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
14.5%
Brian Eavey 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0386% → 85%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.1%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
14.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
14.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for no gain to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 52 yds, downed at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1615% → 15%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
15.2%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-6
15.7%
Ryan Lamb sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
15.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+4
15.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 38 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:4085% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
14.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 21 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
14.5%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+11
14.6%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
14.8%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
14.9%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:3413% → 14%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
14.0%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
13.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
14.6%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
14.5%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.9%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
14.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+8
14.2%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
14.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
13.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 39 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2486% → 85%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
14.3%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
14.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
14.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
15.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 65 yds, downed at the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:0314% → 14%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
14.1%
Jesse Kroll pass complete to Mark Chapman for 40 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.7%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
16.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Darrion Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
15.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for no gain to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
14.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:2185% → 85%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
14.8%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 8Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+49
15.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 49 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
13.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 20
OWN 47
-1
14.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Louis Palmer for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
14.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 21
OWN 46
0
14.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 21
OWN 46
0
15.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:3815% → 20%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
15.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 20 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
16.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 20 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
17.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
17.5%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+13
17.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 13 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
18.9%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+19
19.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 19 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.3%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the OKSt 4Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
18.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
18.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
18.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
20.1%
Brian Eavey 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
19.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2222% → 39%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
22.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 5 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+20
22.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 20 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
24.8%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
26.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 9 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
27.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 5 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
39.1%
Cooper Rush run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:0766% → 80%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
34.3%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+20
33.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 20 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
31.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+26
32.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 26 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
20.2%
Mason Rudolph run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5325% → 23%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
24.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 9 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
25.3%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 32
-4
23.2%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 58 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:4677% → 79%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
23.2%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+7
23.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 7 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
23.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
23.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+23
24.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 23 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
21.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+26
21.7%
Rennie Childs run for 26 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
18.5%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+1
18.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 1 yd to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
19.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
21.5%
Ben Grogan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0925% → 25%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.4%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
24.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 14 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
28.4%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
29.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 4 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
30.7%
Corey Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+5
28.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 5 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-4
30.3%
Cooper Rush sacked by Jimmy Bean for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
25.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:1877% → 92%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
23.4%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-4
22.9%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+12
25.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 12 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
22.8%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
20.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 15 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
20.2%
Mason Rudolph run for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 47 Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by OKSt Zachary CrabtreeSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+2
22.6%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+16
22.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 16 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
18.3%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+13
18.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 13 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
18.0%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
7.8%
Marcell Ateman 18 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5610% → 9%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez WalkerSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
9.5%
Martez Walker run for 7 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
9.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
9.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Miketavius Jones at the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4492% → 91%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
8.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
8.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+7
8.8%
Chris Carson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
8.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Emmitt Thomas at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:199% → 7%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
9.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
9.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-8
8.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 2 yds to the CMich 26 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+4
6.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 4 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
6.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:1993% → 97%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
6.6%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
6.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+18
6.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 18 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
6.5%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
5.7%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+13
4.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 13 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
4.4%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+9
4.5%
Chris Carson run for 9 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
3.1%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
3.3%
Ben Grogan 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
3.5%
Cooper Rush run for 11 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
3.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-8
4.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+10
2.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 10 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:38
Mason Rudolph run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 11:17
Cooper Rush run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q4 9:20
Marcell Ateman 18 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com