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TCU

TCU 23 at Minnesota 17

MINN
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:32 · Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior−33.6Home team on offense−3.5Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:03: Trevone Boykin run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +6.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:44: Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +14.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:36: Jaden Oberkrom 45 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +1.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:33: Jaden Oberkrom 33 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +4.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:32: Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +23.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:24MINN 4th & 8 at TCU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58TCU 4th & 12 at MINN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 29, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:10MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:22MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:43TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:13TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:22MINN 4th & 4 at TCU 25, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23TCU 4th & 8 at MINN 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:02MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:07MINN 4th & 2 at TCU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:36TCU 4th & 8 at MINN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−5.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:42MINN 4th & 21 at MINN 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01TCU 4th & 6 at MINN 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:42MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:33TCU 4th & 5 at MINN 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−7.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:22MINN 4th & 9 at TCU 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:02TCU 4th & 1 at MINN 44, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:27TCU 4th & 7 at MINN 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:46TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:03TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:44MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:32MINN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2413% → 14%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
13.0%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
13.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 4 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
13.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
13.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodrick Williams Jr for 7 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
13.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
14.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
14.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
14.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 4:2286% → 84%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
14.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 6 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
14.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
14.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
14.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 6 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
14.9%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+9
15.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 9 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
15.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 9 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
15.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Ja'Juan Story) to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
15.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 10 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
15.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
15.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 13 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
15.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Buck JonesSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
15.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-5
15.8%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Steven Richardson and Robert Ndondo-Lay for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+53
16.3%
Jaden Oberkrom 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:2916% → 16%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 18 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Terrell Lathan, recovered by TCU Josh Carraway, return for 3 yds to the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2984% → 85%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
15.9%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
14.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 11 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4515% → 15%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
15.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
15.5%
Chris Streveler run for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
14.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
14.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1785% → 84%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
15.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4915% → 15%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
14.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
15.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
14.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+36
14.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the Minn 44 TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (KaVontae Turpin) to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5885% → 84%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
15.2%
KaVontae Turpin run for 16 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
15.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 8 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
15.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
15.4%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
15.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 4 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
15.4%
Shaun Nixon run for 4 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-1
15.8%
Aaron Green run for 1 yard to the Minn 11 Aaron Green fumbled, forced by Eric Murray, recovered by Minn Antonio Johnson at Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2116% → 15%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
15.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
15.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-5
15.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (Mitch Leidner) to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+6
15.3%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
15.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 58 yds, downed at the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3284% → 82%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
16.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-3
16.7%
Shaun Nixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
-5
17.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Ja'Juan Story) to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
17.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:0717% → 18%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
16.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 36 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
17.7%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+8
17.7%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 8 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
17.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 4 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
17.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 6 yds Rodrick Williams Jr fumbled, forced by Derrick Kindred, recovered by TCU Nick Orr in endzone for touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0783% → 83%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
17.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 7 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
16.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Kolby Listenbee) to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
16.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
17.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4417% → 19%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
16.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
16.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
17.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
17.5%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
18.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
18.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Melvin Holland Jr, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
17.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
19.2%
Ryan Santoso 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14MISSED FG
19 plays · 69 yds · 4:4782% → 83%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
18.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+9
18.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
18.4%
Aaron Green run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
50
+9
17.3%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-5
17.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Dominic Merka) to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
16.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
17.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 8 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
16.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
15.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
15.6%
Aaron Green run for 12 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
15.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
15.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by De'Vondre CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-3
15.7%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
16.8%
Jaden Oberkrom 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
19.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:2781% → 89%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
18.8%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
18.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
18.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 26 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
17.2%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
17.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
17.5%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
17.2%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
17.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
10.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4913% → 12%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
12.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 1 yd to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
12.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jonah Pirsig) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
12.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4889% → 90%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
11.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+14
11.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 14 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
10.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
10.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+13
9.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
9.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
9.7%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Eric Murray return for 5 yds to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:5912% → 26%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
11.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
11.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 1 yd to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+30
11.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 30 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
13.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
13.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodrick Williams JrSimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
12.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+7
12.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
12.7%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
12.2%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
12.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.0%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.3%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:5080% → 84%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
19.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+26
20.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 26 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
18.0%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+15
18.9%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Story, Ja'Juan, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Murray, Eric) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
17.6%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-5
17.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Jamelle Naff) to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
17.5%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
17.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
18.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
16.4%
Jaden Oberkrom 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:4416% → 14%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
15.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-15
15.4%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Maye, KJ, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Maye, KJ) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 26
OWN 19
+5
15.0%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 21
OWN 24
0
14.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 21
OWN 24
+8
13.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 52 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2284% → 86%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
16.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
15.5%
Green, Aaron rush for loss of 1 yard to the TCU40, PENALTY TCU holding (Hunt, Joey) 10 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+22
16.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 22 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
14.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 4 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
13.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
13.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
13.7%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
13.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1914% → 10%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
13.6%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 1 yd to the Minn 5Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-4
11.3%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 1 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Terrell Lathan, recovered by Minn Brian Bobek , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 13
OWN 1
0
10.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 13
OWN 1
0
10.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game ( 0 Yards) to the Minn 1Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 13
OWN 1
0
10.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 47 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0390% → 94%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
10.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 14 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
9.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+15
10.0%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Murray, Eric) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
9.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
9.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+5
10.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 5 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
5.6%
Jaden Oberkrom 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:557% → 6%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.1%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
7.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
7.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete, broken up by Terrell LathanSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
6.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 16 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
7.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
7.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
7.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-5
7.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Foster Bush) to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1096% → 97%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
4.2%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-3
4.0%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+8
3.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 8 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 35 yds, downed at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 1:234% → 29%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
4.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 14 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
4.1%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
4.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 16 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
4.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
4.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 5 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
4.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+10
5.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
29.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
5.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
5.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
4.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-5
5.3%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
5.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:169% → 9%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
9.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodrick Williams Jr, broken up by Chris BradleySimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
8.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodrick Williams Jr for 7 yds to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:32
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+23.6
TD · Q3 3:44
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+14.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com