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ARMY

Army 17 at Navy 21

NAVY
2015 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2015 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:09 · Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+26.1Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score differential−2.4Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:10: Tyler Campbell 29 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick) — ARMY win probability +1.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:08: Edgar Poe 39 Yd pass from Chris Carter (Daniel Grochowski Kick) — ARMY win probability +7.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:51: Jamir Tillman 50 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +14.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:25: Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 41 — NAVY win probability +13.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 4 — NAVY win probability +12.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 12ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:44NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31ARMY 4th & 5 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18NAVY 4th & 8 at ARMY 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:45ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:24ARMY 4th & 11 at NAVY 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:48NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:45NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18NAVY 4th & 10 at ARMY 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:52NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:11NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:01ARMY 4th & 21 at ARMY 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−4.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:21NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:19ARMY 4th & 3 at NAVY 12, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−11.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:46NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:36NAVY 4th & 7 at ARMY 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−2.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:03NAVY 4th & 7 at ARMY 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−2.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:11NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.9
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:58NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:10ARMY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:18NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08ARMY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:51NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4694% → 93%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
93.8%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
93.7%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
93.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-2
93.5%
Dishan Romine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+50
93.3%
Alex Barta punt for 43 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 50 yds to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:597% → 8%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
93.1%
Chris Carter run for 7 yds to the Navy 33 ARMY Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaryn Villegas) to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 18
OPP 48
-2
92.9%
Chris Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Chris Carter fumbled, recovered by Army Chris Carter , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 20
50
+31
92.9%
Chris Carter pass complete to Edgar Poe for 31 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
92.6%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
92.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
92.2%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Kelvin White, broken up by Daiquan ThomassonSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
92.2%
Daniel Grochowski 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2792% → 93%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 17 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
92.7%
Keenan Reynolds 58 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:108% → 10%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
92.4%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
92.4%
Nicholas Black run for 9 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
92.1%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
92.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
91.8%
Chris Carter run for 5 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
91.4%
Chris Carter pass complete to Edgar Poe for 13 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Amos Mason) to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
90.2%
Tyler Campbell 29 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4591% → 90%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
90.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 35 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Carnegie) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
90.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+5
90.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-2
90.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 38 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joey Gaston) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
90.0%
Alex Barta punt for 32 yds, downed at the Army 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1510% → 10%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
89.8%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
89.6%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
89.5%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
89.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:0290% → 90%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
89.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
89.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
89.4%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
89.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 35 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.2%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Army 3Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.9%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Keenan Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
15 plays · 38 yds · 7:3611% → 12%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.4%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
88.9%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 29Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
89.0%
Chris Carter run for 10 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
88.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
87.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
88.1%
Chris Carter run for 7 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
87.8%
Tyler Campbell run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+8
87.6%
Chris Carter pass complete to Edgar Poe for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
87.2%
Christian Drake run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-3
86.6%
Nicholas Black run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-2
86.9%
Chris Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
87.7%
Alex Tardieu punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1287% → 86%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
87.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Navy DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-2
87.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
86.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Brandon JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+2
86.1%
Alex Barta punt for 42 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:2814% → 22%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
85.8%
Christian Drake run for 15 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
78.0%
Edgar Poe 39 Yd pass from Chris Carter (Daniel Grochowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 1:2282% → 79%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
81.9%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
82.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
81.4%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
80.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan Romine, broken up by Jeremy TimpfSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
80.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Jordan SmithSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
78.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
78.7%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, downed at the Army 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1621% → 22%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
79.4%
Chris Carter run for 1 yd to the Army 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
78.5%
Chris Carter run for 1 yd to the Army 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2123% → 23%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.8%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-13
76.5%
Tyler Campbell run for no gain to the Army 27 ARMY Penalty, Illegal Block (Kelvin White) to the Army 14Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
76.5%
Chris Carter pass complete to Nicholas Black for 7 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
76.9%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
77.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5876% → 74%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
76.4%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
75.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
75.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
74.3%
Alex Barta punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4326% → 26%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
74.3%
Chris Carter run for 5 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
72.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-9
72.7%
Chris Carter sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 9 yards to the Army 24Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
73.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2973% → 70%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
73.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
72.7%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+1
71.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Alex Barta punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:4431% → 30%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.4%
Chris Carter run for no gain to the Army 20Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
69.2%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 18Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
69.8%
Chris Carter sacked by Jarvis Polu for a loss of 9 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
70.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
50
+50
85.1%
Jamir Tillman 50 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1518% → 17%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.9%
Tyler Campbell run for 5 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
80.7%
Chris Carter pass incomplete, broken up by Will AnthonySimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-8
81.8%
Chris Carter sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 18Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
82.9%
Alex Tardieu punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3984% → 82%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
83.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
84.3%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
83.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
82.0%
Alex Barta punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:5620% → 25%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
79.9%
Chris Carter pass complete to Edgar Poe for 30 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
76.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 18 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
74.4%
Chris Carter run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
73.6%
Chris Carter run for 6 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
74.4%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
72.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-4
72.2%
Chris Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+6
74.0%
Chris Carter pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 6 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
74.7%
Daniel Grochowski 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:2880% → 77%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
79.8%
Chris Swain run for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
79.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
79.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+1
78.3%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
77.2%
Alex Barta punt for 36 yds, downed at the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:4725% → 32%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
74.8%
Chris Carter run for no gain to the Army 28 Chris Carter fumbled, recovered by Army Chris CarterSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+39
75.7%
Chris Carter pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 39 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
68.3%
Chris Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 34 Chris Carter fumbled, recovered by Navy Ted ColburnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:3979% → 86%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
78.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 11 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
82.2%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
50
+4
84.4%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
83.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
86.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
88.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
87.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
86.2%
Alex Barta punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
75.8%
Chris Carter pass intercepted Lorentez Barbour return for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2289% → 89%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
89.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
89.6%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-5
90.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Brandon Greene) to the Army 41Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
89.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
88.5%
Alex Barta punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 27INT
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:4716% → 21%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
84.4%
Chris Carter pass complete to Tyler Campbell for 35 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
80.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
78.8%
DeAndre Bell pass intercepted Daiquan Thomasson return for no gain to the Navy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1991% → 94%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
91.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+1
93.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+4
94.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+1
94.0%
Alex Barta punt for 50 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 1 yd to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0511% → 11%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.8%
Luke Langdon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
Kelvin White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:51
Jamir Tillman 50 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)
+14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:25
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 41
+13.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 4
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com