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ARMY

Army 3 at Air Force 20

AF
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:30 · Alex Tardieu punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+28.2Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:12: Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +4.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:18: Daniel Grochowski 47 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +3.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:18: Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25 — AF win probability +2.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:34: Timeout ARMY, clock 13:34 — AF win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:11: Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:15ARMY 4th & 1 at AF 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:31AF 4th & 1 at AF 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28ARMY 4th & 2 at AF 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:38AF 4th & 7 at AF 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:14ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:42ARMY 4th & 16 at ARMY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:30AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:30ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 44, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:21AF 4th & 2 at AF 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:18ARMY 4th & 5 at AF 29, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55AF 4th & 7 at ARMY 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−6.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:34ARMY 4th & 15 at AF 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:04ARMY 4th & 22 at AF 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:12AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:11AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.5%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
89.5%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
89.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+11
89.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 11 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
89.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
89.0%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
89.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
89.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 38 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
88.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
87.9%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+1
87.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
87.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
86.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
86.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
86.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
87.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
86.6%
Tyler Williams run for 16 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-3
87.0%
Bryan Driskell run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
86.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 7 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
87.0%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
87.0%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
86.9%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett Griffin, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
86.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 34 yds, downed at the Army 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
85.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 10 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
85.0%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 28Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
85.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
85.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
85.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1585% → 85%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
84.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 10 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
85.2%
Bryan Driskell run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
84.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
83.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+2
83.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-7
83.9%
ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (-7 Yards) to the Army 9Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 13
OWN 9
-3
84.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. and Jalen Lacy for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 6Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 16
OWN 6
0
84.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:3184% → 83%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
84.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 16 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
84.5%
Tyler Williams run for 13 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
84.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
84.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-1
84.1%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 5Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
83.4%
Luke Strebel 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
82.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 4 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
82.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+1
82.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Army 41Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
83.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3783% → 88%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
82.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+59
82.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 59 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
84.3%
Tyler Williams run for 6 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
83.8%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
84.3%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.3%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2613% → 12%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.6%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Army 27Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
87.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 24 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Army Ahmad BradshawSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
87.7%
Alex Tardieu punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
87.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
86.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
86.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
86.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Army 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
85.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
86.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
87.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+9
87.5%
Karson Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
87.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
87.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
87.3%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+4
86.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 45 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 4 yds to the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 5:0213% → 18%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
86.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
86.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
50
+16
86.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 16 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
85.3%
Aaron Kemper run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+6
85.3%
Nicholas Black run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
85.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
82.1%
Daniel Grochowski 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:2386% → 89%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
85.5%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Brandon JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+34
85.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 34 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
87.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
87.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-2
86.7%
Bryan Driskell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 25Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
88.9%
Luke Strebel 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:2111% → 9%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Christian Drake run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
88.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 27Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
90.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 33 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
88.3%
ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 20
50
+1
89.1%
Tyler Campbell run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+4
90.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
90.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:1390% → 98%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
90.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+28
90.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 28 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
91.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 24 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
91.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
91.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
97.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS
16 plays · 31 yds · 4:073% → 2%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
96.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Matt GiachintaSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
96.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Nicholas BlackSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+15
97.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Santo Coppola) to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
96.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
96.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Nicholas Black for 12 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
96.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Nicholas Black) to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
96.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Nicholas Black, broken up by Alex HansenSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 15
OPP 37
-7
97.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 22
OPP 44
0
98.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
98.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 6 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
98.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 45Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:12
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q4 8:11
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 23 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+4.7
FG · Q3 4:18
Daniel Grochowski 47 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com