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ARMY

Army 31 at Rice 38

RICE
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:09 · Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, downed at the Rice 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior−18.5Home team on offense+4.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score differential+0.7Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:10: John Trainor run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +16.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 10:37: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 7 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +15.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:58: Aaron Kemper run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +30.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 2:13: Daniel Grochowski 19 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +14.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:24: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +30.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:47ARMY 4th & 11 at RICE 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01RICE 4th & 8 at ARMY 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:14RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00RICE 4th & 8 at ARMY 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−8.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at RICE 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−3.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:43RICE 4th & 3 at ARMY 46, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:31ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:10ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:37ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:30RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 18, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:13ARMY 4th & 2 at RICE 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−28.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:38RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:47RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:14ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:43RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:01ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:10ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:37RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:58ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:24RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:2224% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
24.3%
Darik Dillard run for 6 yds to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+13
24.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 13 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
24.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
25.5%
Darik Dillard run for 34 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
25.4%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Army 24Similar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 5
OWN 24
-1
25.3%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 23 A.J. Schurr fumbled, forced by Brian Womac, recovered by Rice Destri WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1926% → 27%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
26.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 22 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
26.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 23Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+14
26.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 14 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.6%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
26.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
26.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 10 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.5%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the Rice 44Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
26.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
26.6%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Rice 41 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, personal foul (Derek Brown) to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
26.4%
A.J. Schurr pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
26.5%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 27 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by Army A.J. SchurrSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
26.6%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Matt GiachintaSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+2
26.7%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Kelvin White for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.5%
Driphus Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
33.4%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
33.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 10 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
33.9%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
33.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
33.5%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Darik DillardSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+8
33.1%
James Farrimond punt for 47 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 8 yds to the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
36.6%
Drue Harris run for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-2
36.6%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 20Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
36.8%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+1
37.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 51 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for 1 yd to the Rice 21 ARMY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Rice 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
40.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 11 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.7%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the Army 44Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
40.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
40.3%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
39.6%
James Farrimond punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 2:5559% → 64%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
41.1%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 3Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+71
41.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 71 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
40.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
40.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+3
40.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
35.6%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 16 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 11 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.3%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
39.7%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 34Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
38.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 4 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
37.8%
James Farrimond punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:4060% → 56%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
40.5%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
42.5%
John Trainor run for 4 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+4
42.9%
Nicholas Black run for 4 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
42.2%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-1
42.2%
Nicholas Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 22Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
43.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to DeAndre BellSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
43.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, downed at the Rice 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:4248% → 60%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
48.1%
Austin Walter run for 19 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.5%
Austin Walter run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
48.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 6 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+19
48.1%
Austin Walter run for 19 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
50.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
50.5%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Army 2Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.5%
Luke Turner run for no gain to the Army 2Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.0%
Luke Turner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4241% → 55%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
59.4%
Aaron Kemper run for 69 yds to the Rice 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FG
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:0150% → 56%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
49.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the Rice 8Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+28
49.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 28 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
51.1%
Driphus Jackson run for 2 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+52
51.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 52 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
52.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 5 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
51.9%
Samuel Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
56.4%
Hayden Tobola 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 6 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
53.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
54.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
53.8%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+9
54.7%
John Trainor run for 9 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
53.6%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-2
55.0%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
65.7%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the Rice 48Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
65.6%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 47Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+7
63.7%
Driphus Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
63.2%
James Farrimond punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
65.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 8 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
64.6%
Matt Giachinta run for 6 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to John Trainor, broken up by Ryan PollardSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
65.3%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 34Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
66.9%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to DeAndre BellSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
67.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.4%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the Rice 39 Samuel Stewart fumbled, forced by Jordan Smith, recovered by Army John VoitSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:5535% → 53%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
65.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
63.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
64.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+5
66.5%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
63.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
47.2%
John Trainor run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 44%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
50.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
49.4%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 48Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-2
51.7%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 46Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
55.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 24 yds, downed at the Rice 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1456% → 84%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
56.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
55.7%
Driphus Jackson run for no gain to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+11
54.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
59.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 1 yd to the Rice 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
58.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+19
56.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 19 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
61.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
62.4%
Driphus Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
66.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 11 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
68.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 6 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
68.0%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Army 7Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 7 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.2%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Army 30Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+9
83.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 9 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
83.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
82.7%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
83.0%
John Trainor run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
88.0%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 9Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+9
87.9%
Darik Dillard run for 9 yds to the Rice 18Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
87.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
86.4%
James Farrimond punt for 33 yds, downed at the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:0213% → 45%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
87.2%
Jordan Asberry run for 19 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
85.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
54.8%
Aaron Kemper run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3869% → 74%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
68.8%
Driphus Jackson run for 4 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
69.0%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 14Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
-4
73.8%
Driphus Jackson sacked by John Voit for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 10 Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by Army Alex Aukerman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0046% → 58%
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
54.1%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Rice 10Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
54.1%
John Trainor run for 4 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
56.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Rice 2Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
41.9%
Daniel Grochowski 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4954% → 97%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
54.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 17 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.0%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+11
56.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 11 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
61.3%
Darik Dillard run for 20 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
63.1%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
96.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:238% → 11%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Kelvin White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.6%
RICE Penalty, personal foul (Tabari McGaskey) to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
90.8%
Kelvin White run for 17 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
88.9%
Kelvin White run for 7 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
89.0%
Kelvin White pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Nick ElderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:58
Aaron Kemper run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-30.8
TD · Q4 0:24
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
+30.7
TD · Q3 3:10
John Trainor run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com