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BUCK

Bucknell 14 at Army 21

ARMY
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBUCK aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBUCK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:19 · A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+21.4Home team on offense−7.6Garbage-time factor−3.9Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:28: R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for 35 yds for a TD, (John Burdick PAT BLOCKED) — BUCK win probability +5.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: R.J. Nitti pass complete to Andrew Owers for 4 yds for a TD, (R.J. Nitti pass to Andrew Owers for Two-Point Conversion) — BUCK win probability +14.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:25: Matt DelMauro run for 7 yds to the Buckn 23 — BUCK win probability +6.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:43: A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:44: A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 68 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +29.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BUCK made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BUCK 4th & 1 at BUCK 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02BUCK 4th & 2 at BUCK 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:58BUCK 4th & 11 at ARMY 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:24ARMY 4th & 2 at BUCK 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:15BUCK 4th & 20 at BUCK 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26BUCK 4th & 6 at ARMY 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51BUCK 4th & 17 at ARMY 34, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25BUCK 4th & 10 at BUCK 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.1%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BUCK 4th & 18 at BUCK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:42ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:00BUCK 4th & 10 at BUCK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−3.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:49ARMY 4th & 16 at ARMY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−8.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:10BUCK 4th & 11 at BUCK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−4.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:17ARMY 4th & 1 at BUCK 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−4.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:12ARMY 4th & 2 at BUCK 7, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%−0.4
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUCK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 5:28BUCK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:52ARMY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26BUCK Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:43ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:44ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUCKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.9%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Bobby Kaslander for 4 yds to the Buckn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
93.9%
Matt DelMauro run for 4 yds to the Buckn 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
93.9%
Matt DelMauro run for 1 yd to the Buckn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Alex Pechin punt for 48 yds , Nicholas Black returns for no gain to the Army 34 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2INT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 7 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+6
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+5
93.4%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 7 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 4
50
+1
93.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Buckn 49Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
93.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Buckn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Victor Nieves III) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 15
50
0
93.4%
A.J. Schurr pass intercepted Connor Golden return for no gain to the Buckn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.7%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for 5 yds to the Buckn 29Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
91.7%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Andrew Owers for 3 yds to the Buckn 32Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
91.7%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Andrew Podbielski, broken up by Brandon JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
91.8%
Alex Pechin punt for 37 yds , Nicholas Black returns for no gain to the Army 29 Nicholas Black fumbled, recovered by Army Nicholas BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
91.4%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
91.4%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
91.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Kelvin WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+4
91.1%
Alex Tardieu punt for 45 yds , Nick O'Brien returns for 4 yds to the Buckn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 5:079% → 11%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
90.8%
Matt DelMauro run for 1 yd to the Buckn 30Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
90.8%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Cary Hess) to the Buckn 25Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+15
90.9%
Nitti, R.J. pass incomplete, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Moss, Xavier) 15 yards to the BUCKNELL40, 1ST DOWN BUCKNELL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
90.6%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Devlin Brennan) to the Buckn 35Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+9
90.8%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Matt DelMauro for 9 yds to the Buckn 44Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
90.5%
Matt DelMauro run for 11 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.4%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Will CarterSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.4%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Bobby Kaslander for 5 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+9
90.5%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Alan Butler for 9 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
90.3%
BUCKNELL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ramy Kased) to the Army 46Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
90.4%
Matt DelMauro run for 26 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
88.3%
R.J. Nitti run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
88.4%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Andrew OwersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
88.6%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Bobby Kaslander, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
88.7%
John Burdick 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by John Voit N/A return for no gain to the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3489% → 89%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
89.2%
John Trainor run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
50
-1
89.8%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 49Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
89.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Buckn 49Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+7
89.4%
Joe Walker run for 7 yds to the Buckn 42Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+4
88.9%
Alex Tardieu punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buckn 15 , Nick O'Brien returns for 4 yds to the Buckn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
87.9%
Matt DelMauro run for 6 yds to the Buckn 21Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
87.7%
Matt DelMauro run for no gain to the Buckn 21Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+7
88.0%
Matt DelMauro run for 7 yds to the Buckn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.7%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Bobby KaslanderSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
87.8%
DelMauro, Matt rush for 4 yards to the BUCKNELL32 (Jackson, B.), PENALTY BUCKNELL holding (Hess, Cary) 10 yards to the BUCKNELL18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
87.9%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Matt DelMauroSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 20
OWN 18
0
88.1%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Alan Butler, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
88.4%
Alex Pechin punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Nicholas Black returns for no gain to the Army 49 Nicholas Black fumbled, recovered by Buckn Bryan Marine for a 1ST down BUCKNELL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jimmy King) to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.2%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Will CarterSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
85.3%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Will CarterSimilar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
85.8%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for 4 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
86.1%
Alex Pechin punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
86.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 15Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
86.8%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 15Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
86.4%
A.J. Schurr pass intercepted Connor Golden return for no gain to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 10TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:4217% → 23%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
83.2%
Matt DelMauro run for 9 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+35
77.3%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for 35 yds for a TD, (John Burdick PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:3681% → 88%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.8%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Victor Nieves III) to the Army 30Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
80.5%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
80.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+16
81.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 16 yds to the Buckn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
82.2%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Buckn 39Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+11
82.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 11 yds to the Buckn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
83.0%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the Buckn 26Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-2
83.0%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buckn 28Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+25
82.0%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 25 yds to the Buckn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 12TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 1:1715% → 34%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
84.8%
Matt DelMauro run for 19 yds to the Buckn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
83.3%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Bobby Kaslander for 27 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
82.1%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Alan Butler for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
82.1%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Andrew OwersSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
82.9%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Griff Barth) to the Army 29Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
83.3%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Bobby Kaslander, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 12
OPP 29
-5
84.3%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Julie'n Davenport) to the Army 34Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+27
84.7%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Bobby Kaslander for 27 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.0%
Matt DelMauro run for 3 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.5%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Andrew Owers for 4 yds for a TD, (R.J. Nitti pass to Andrew Owers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
73.0%
Drue Harris run for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
72.1%
Drue Harris run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.3%
Drue Harris run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.3%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
72.2%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
71.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
72.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 39 yds, downed at the Buckn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
65.6%
Matt DelMauro run for 7 yds to the Buckn 23Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+6
64.5%
Matt DelMauro run for 6 yds to the Buckn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
64.9%
Matt DelMauro run for 4 yds to the Buckn 33Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-5
64.2%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Clayton Hoffmaster) to the Buckn 28Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+11
65.8%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Bobby Kaslander for 11 yds to the Buckn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
63.3%
Matt DelMauro run for 1 yd to the Buckn 40Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
63.5%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Bobby Kaslander, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+4
64.3%
R.J. Nitti run for 4 yds to the Buckn 44Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-5
65.0%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Clayton Hoffmaster) to the Buckn 39Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
66.4%
Alex Pechin punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:3662% → 78%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.5%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the Army 28Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
61.1%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 7 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
62.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
60.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
62.5%
Drue Harris run for 4 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+19
64.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 19 yds to the Buckn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
65.4%
Drue Harris run for 1 yd to the Buckn 37Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+19
65.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 4 yds to the Buckn 33 for a 1ST down BUCKNELL Penalty, personal foul (Bret Berg) to the Buckn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
66.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the Buckn 13Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-1
66.9%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buckn 14Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+11
65.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 11 yds to the Buckn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:3431% → 29%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.3%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Ramy Kased) to the Buckn 20Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+18
69.6%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Andrew Podbielski for 18 yds to the Buckn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.4%
Matt DelMauro run for 2 yds to the Buckn 40Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Matt DelMauro run for no gain to the Buckn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-5
66.8%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Julie'n Davenport) to the Buckn 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
69.4%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Will CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-5
70.5%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Matthew Jegede) to the Buckn 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+5
70.9%
Alex Pechin punt for 52 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 5 yds to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
71.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
71.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
71.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
73.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 42Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
73.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
70.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buckn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 36%
Q4 11:00
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
66.3%
Alex Pechin punt for 26 yds, downed at the Army 40Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
62.5%
Matt DelMauro run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buckn 32Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+11
63.9%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for 11 yds to the Buckn 43Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-4
59.9%
R.J. Nitti run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buckn 39Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 5
OWN 39
-5
64.4%
BUCKNELL Penalty, false start (Brian Duncan) to the Buckn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q4 8:49
2ND & 21
OWN 29
0
65.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to DeAndre BellSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
68.6%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 29 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by Army John TrainorSimilar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+5
63.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
62.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 37 yds, downed at the Buckn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
58.0%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Matt DelMauro for 12 yds to the Buckn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
58.7%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Bobby KaslanderSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
54.8%
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Will Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Buckn 40Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
56.9%
R.J. Nitti pass incomplete to Alan ButlerSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
61.0%
Alex Pechin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5163% → 92%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
91.8%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 68 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.3%
R.J. Nitti pass intercepted Chris Carnegie return for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:2192% → 97%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+31
92.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 31 yds to the Buckn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
92.8%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the Buckn 24Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+2
92.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Buckn 22Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
95.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Buckn 17Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
95.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Buckn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
96.2%
Drue Harris run for 1 yd to the Buckn 14Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
96.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the Buckn 9Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+2
95.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Buckn 7Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+2
96.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Buckn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:44
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 68 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+29.3
TD · Q2 0:26
R.J. Nitti pass complete to Andrew Owers for 4 yds for a TD, (R.J. Nitti pass to Andrew Owers for Two-Point Conversion)
-14.2
TD · Q3 1:43
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com