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ARMY

Army 14 at Penn State 20

PSU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:59 · Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Army 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+14.2Garbage-time factor+9.1Pregame prior−0.8Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:53: Joey Julius 27 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:36: A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +15.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:04: A.J. Schurr run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +16.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:21: Johnathan Thomas run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26PSU 4th & 4 at ARMY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49PSU 4th & 17 at ARMY 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:52PSU 4th & 6 at ARMY 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:25PSU 4th & 3 at ARMY 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54ARMY 4th & 22 at ARMY 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:53PSU 4th & 3 at ARMY 10, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−9.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:36PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 33, up 6
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03ARMY 4th & 9 at PSU 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−2.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:59PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:48ARMY 4th & 5 at PSU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−3.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:57PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:36ARMY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:00PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:04ARMY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.6%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
45.6%
Mark Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
45.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
45.6%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+38
45.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 38 yds , Edgar Poe returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
45.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 42 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by PnSt Garrett SickelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2946% → 50%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
46.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
46.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 7 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
46.2%
Nick Scott run for 6 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
46.3%
Nick Scott run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
46.3%
Nick Scott run for 4 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
46.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Nick ScottSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+12
46.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
49.5%
Nick Scott run for 11 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -18 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
48.6%
Matt Giachinta run for 9 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
48.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
48.4%
John Trainor run for 6 yds to the Army 49 ARMY Penalty, clipping (-15 Yards) to the Army 34Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 19
OWN 34
+1
48.7%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 35Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 18
OWN 35
-23
48.7%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Jason Cabinda for a loss of 23 yards to the Army 12 A.J. Schurr fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 41
OWN 12
0
48.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
51.6%
Johnathan Thomas run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
51.6%
Johnathan Thomas run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
51.3%
Johnathan Thomas run for 9 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
51.7%
Johnathan Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
51.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-10
51.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 45Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 23
OPP 45
+6
50.8%
Nick Scott run for 6 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
50.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4947% → 46%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
52.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
52.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
52.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
52.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
52.2%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
54.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
54.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
55.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
55.2%
Nick Scott run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+7
54.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 7 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
55.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
55.7%
Nick Scott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
55.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
54.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0044% → 46%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
56.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
55.5%
Drue Harris run for 9 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
55.1%
John Trainor run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
54.9%
Drue Harris run for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
54.4%
Jordan Asberry run for no gain to the PnSt 43 Jordan Asberry fumbled, recovered by PnSt Von WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
59.6%
Brandon Polk run for 14 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
60.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
59.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-2
59.4%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 39Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
58.2%
Chris Gulla punt for 28 yds , Edgar Poe returns for no gain to the Army 8 Edgar Poe fumbled, recovered by Army Edgar PoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0040% → 42%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
59.7%
John Trainor run for 9 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+3
59.0%
Drue Harris run for 3 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.3%
Drue Harris run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+22
59.5%
John Trainor run for 22 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
57.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-3
57.8%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 41 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by PnSt Manny BowenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1764% → 67%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
64.1%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Army 46Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+19
61.6%
Christian Hackenberg run for 19 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
64.5%
Nick Scott run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
64.5%
Nick Scott run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
63.7%
Nick Scott run for 3 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
67.3%
Joey Julius 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
67.4%
Christian Drake run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 12 Christian Drake fumbled, forced by Anthony Zettel, recovered by Army DeAndre BellSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+3
67.8%
John Trainor run for 3 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 15
-5
68.8%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 10Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 22
OWN 10
+25
69.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 25 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4073% → 80%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
73.3%
Mark Allen run for 12 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
73.3%
ARMY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Army 12Similar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+1
73.3%
Mark Allen run for 1 yd to the Army 11Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
73.3%
Mark Allen run for 2 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-1
72.2%
Johnathan Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 10Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
80.1%
Joey Julius 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:1121% → 40%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
79.4%
John Trainor run for 8 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
77.8%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
78.3%
John Trainor run for 12 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
77.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+32
76.5%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 32 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
75.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
75.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
60.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.9%
Johnathan Thomas run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
66.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 46 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 14 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
64.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 20 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
60.9%
ARMY Penalty, clipping (-15 Yards) to the Army 40Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 25
OWN 40
+16
64.6%
Matt Giachinta run for 16 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
60.9%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+2
63.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
65.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 1:1373% → 91%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
73.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 9 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+49
73.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 49 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
91.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:4913% → 27%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
87.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 17Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+7
87.2%
John Trainor run for 7 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+5
90.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
89.9%
Nicholas Black run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
89.8%
Drue Harris run for 6 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+7
89.7%
Joe Walker run for 7 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
73.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
83.2%
Mark Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-7
83.0%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Brandon Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+22
81.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Nick Scott for 22 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
84.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Eddy Ruzga for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+5
82.9%
Nick Scott run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+11
82.1%
Nick Scott run for 11 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+5
83.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Army 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
81.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
80.1%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
80.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
80.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
78.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
79.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 14 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.4%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the PnSt 48 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by Army A.J. SchurrSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
77.3%
Drue Harris run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
77.0%
Drue Harris run for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-10
78.8%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Jason Cabinda for a loss of 10 yards to the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1396% → 95%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
95.8%
Johnathan Thomas run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 40Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 14
OPP 40
-2
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 42Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 16
OPP 42
-2
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+17.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:21
Johnathan Thomas run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST down
+17
TD · Q4 11:04
A.J. Schurr run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com