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ARMY

Army 58 at Eastern Michigan 36

EMU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:51 · Brogan Roback run for 7 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense−15.2Score differential−9.1Garbage-time factor−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Pregame prior+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:54: Aaron Kemper run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:27: John Trainor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +19.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +16.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:13: Darius Jackson run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +26.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Drue Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (A. Schurr Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +20.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25EMU 4th & 15 at ARMY 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:55ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:51EMU 4th & 2 at ARMY 22, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:06ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.1%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:55EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 3:21EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:55EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 43, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:36ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:13ARMY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:54ARMY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:55EMU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:27ARMY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:34EMU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:47ARMY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:03EMU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:13EMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:55ARMY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:30ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.1%
Darius Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
53.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+1
53.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 1 yd to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+10
53.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 44 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 10 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:5547% → 48%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
53.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by Great Ibe and Anthony Zappone for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 26Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 13
OWN 26
-5
53.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Edgar Poe) to the Army 21Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+11
53.3%
Joe Walker run for 11 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
53.3%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Army 37Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+63
51.9%
Joe Walker run for 63 yds for a TD, (Kelvin White pass to Connor Farley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
51.9%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
51.9%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
51.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+5
51.6%
BARNES, Austin punt 40 yards to the ARMY32, fair catch by Poe, Edgar, PENALTY ARMY roughing the kicker (31) 5 yards to the EMU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
51.8%
Austin Barnes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
51.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
51.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
51.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
51.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 21 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Anthony Brown, recovered by EMich Anthony ZapponeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5752% → 52%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
51.8%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the Army 21Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
51.8%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
51.4%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 10
OPP 21
-5
50.5%
MULDER, Dylan field goal attempt from 38 MISSED - hit left upright,, clock 07:30, PENALTY EMU false start (BROWNING, Sam) 5 yards to the ARMY26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
52.1%
Dylan Mulder 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 7:0648% → 56%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
52.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 7 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+11
52.0%
Joe Walker run for 11 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
51.8%
Aaron Kemper run for 8 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
51.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
51.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
51.6%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 44Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+18
51.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 18 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
51.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
51.4%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+11
51.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the EMich 20 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Derric Williams) to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
51.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 13Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
51.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
44.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:1345% → 47%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
45.3%
Darius Jackson run for 10 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+53
45.6%
Darius Jackson run for 53 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.8%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd Darius Jackson fumbled, forced by Jeremy Timpf, recovered by Army Rhyan EnglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5156% → 70%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.3%
Walker, Joe rush for 2 yards to the ARMY22 (ZAPPONE, Anthony), PENALTY EMU offside (DILLON, Nick) 5 yards to the ARMY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+7
44.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 7 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
44.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+10
44.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 10 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
43.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
29.8%
Aaron Kemper run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5935% → 42%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
35.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 17 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
36.3%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
36.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 10 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
36.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 6 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+13
36.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 13 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
37.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
37.5%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the Army 23Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
42.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 23 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2860% → 80%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
39.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 8 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
39.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
39.7%
Aaron Kemper run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 43Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+34
40.4%
Matt Giachinta run for 34 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Ray TillmanSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
39.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 12 yds to the EMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
39.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
39.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the EMich 5Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
20.0%
John Trainor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:5327% → 37%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.8%
Darius Jackson run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
26.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 13 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
28.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 5 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
28.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 7 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
28.8%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
29.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 13 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
29.8%
Brogan Roback run for 6 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
30.0%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-1
26.9%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 22Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+7
25.7%
Brogan Roback run for 7 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
36.6%
Darius Jackson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.9%
Joe Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13INT
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Clay Dawson) to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
32.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
32.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 6 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.1%
Christian Drake run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
32.5%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to John Trainor for 13 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
32.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 41 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
31.9%
Kemper, Aaron rush for 3 yards to the EMU3 (BROWN, Mike;FIGUEROA, Kwanii), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (Kurz, Rick) 15 yards to the EMU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 21
+12
32.0%
John Trainor run for 12 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
31.9%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the EMich 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
32.2%
A.J. Schurr pass intercepted, touchback. Jason Beck return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+29
30.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 29 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
32.3%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Xavier Moss return for 21 yds to the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:5373% → 91%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
26.8%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 7
50
+5
26.7%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-15
27.1%
Schurr, A.J. rush for 3 yards to the EMU42 (RACHWAL, Kyle), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (Alexander, Ryan) 15 yards to the ARMY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
26.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-12
26.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Army 41 ARMY Penalty, personal foul (A.J. Schurr) to the Army 44Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 21
OWN 44
+49
27.4%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to DeAndre Bell for 49 yds to the EMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
26.1%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
26.1%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Anthony Brown) to the EMich 1Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4416% → 26%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.0%
Darius Jackson run for 11 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.6%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
16.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 13 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
17.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
17.9%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+45
25.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 45 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
19.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
19.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the Army 27 Matt Giachinta fumbled, forced by Great Ibe, recovered by EMich Ray TillmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
45.6%
Darius Jackson run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:1164% → 88%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
36.0%
Christian Drake run for 4 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
36.0%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+9
35.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
34.5%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Jordan AsberrySimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
35.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Jordan AsberrySimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
36.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+7
34.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
32.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
31.8%
Drue Harris run for 5 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
32.0%
John Trainor run for 30 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
11.7%
Drue Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (A. Schurr Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
15.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 6 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
15.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 10 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
17.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 2 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-2
17.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 39 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
15.9%
Brogan Roback run for 4 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+42
16.4%
Austin Barnes punt for 42 yds , Edgar Poe returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD
16 plays · 86 yds · 8:4490% → 99%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
10.3%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to John Trainor for 8 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+10
10.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 10 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
10.1%
John Trainor run for 22 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
9.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
9.2%
Drue Harris run for 4 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
9.3%
Drue Harris run for 6 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
9.1%
Giachinta, Matt rush for 12 yards to the EMU22 (RACHWAL, Kyle;BROWN, Anthony), PENALTY ARMY personal foul 15 yards to the EMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+13
6.4%
Nicholas Black run for 13 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+9
6.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
6.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
6.3%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Mike Brown) to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+2
6.3%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
6.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
5.0%
Drue Harris run for 3 yds to the EMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
4.8%
Drue Harris run for 3 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
0.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.2%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
1.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 11 yds to the EMich 41 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Cole Gardner) to the EMich 20Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
1.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Aloyis Gray for 7 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Aloyis Gray for 14 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 4 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie Daugherty, broken up by Tevin LongSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+8
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 8 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
0.1%
Shaq Vann run for 22 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 10 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
0.1%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Jake Hurcombe) to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
0.1%
Shaq Vann run for 8 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+12
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Aloyis Gray for 12 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
0.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 10 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:13
Darius Jackson run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q4 14:55
Drue Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (A. Schurr Run For Two-point Conversion)
-20.3
TD · Q2 3:27
John Trainor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com