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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:18 · Daniel Grochowski 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:48: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +10.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:07: Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED) — CONN win probability +6.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:42: Bobby Puyol 25 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +3.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:10: Ron Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +12.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:51: A.J. Schurr pass complete to Joe Walker for 71 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:18ARMY 4th & 7 at CONN 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call33.0%70% to makePunt32.2%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:13CONN 4th & 6 at ARMY 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snapGo for it64.9%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call65.0%91% to makePunt62.6%−2.4average punt
- Q1 2:13ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 29, tiedClose callPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it34.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:34CONN 4th & 5 at ARMY 46, tiedClose callPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.3%41% to convertField goal65.7%−0.623% to makePuntTheir call66.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:07ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 28, up 1Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:42CONN 4th & 2 at ARMY 8, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%54% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%−0.490% to makePunt55.1%−6.8average punt
- Q3 12:03ARMY 4th & 5 at CONN 32, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.8%42% to convertField goal34.3%−0.451% to makePunt33.0%−1.7average punt
- Q3 7:10ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 41, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.5%−1.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00CONN 4th & 15 at ARMY 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.2%−1.517% to convertField goal82.8%−0.930% to makePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q4 14:12ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 19, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−2.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q4 5:33CONN 4th & 7 at ARMY 22, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.6%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%72% to makePunt86.6%−4.3average punt
- Q4 2:33CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 39, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it89.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.4%−4.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 8:48ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.2%97% to makeGo for two43.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:07CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:10CONN Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.1%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:51ARMY Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 15 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
69.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Josh Marriner for 3 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
69.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the Army 48 Bryant Shirreffs fumbled, forced by Jordan Smith, recovered by Army Andrew KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FG9 plays · 29 yds · 4:5231% → 32%
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
69.1%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3FG14 plays · 69 yds · 6:0568% → 68%
Q1 8:18
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
67.8%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+34
67.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 34 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+15
68.5%
SHIRREFFS, Byr. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (CARNEGIE, Chris) 15 yards to the ARMY26, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+17
68.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Josh Marriner for 17 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Steven JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+5
67.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Matt Giachinta for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 39 yds · 2:3467% → 67%
ARMYDrive 6TD5 plays · 90 yds · 1:5035% → 46%
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+23
64.9%
John Trainor run for 8 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Obi Melifonwu) to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
54.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4156% → 66%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.4%
SHIRREFFS, Byr. pass incomplete to MAYALA, Hergy, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (JOHNSON, Steven) 15 yards to the UCONN40, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
58.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
60.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 8 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
66.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 5:07
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
61.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9FG6 plays · 67 yds · 2:4662% → 68%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
61.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 33 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
64.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 26 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
65.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the Army 15Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+7
65.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 7 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
64.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tommy Myers, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
ARMYDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5734% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
64.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 28 yds to the UCONN 27 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-2
62.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 37 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Army Joe WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD10 plays · 62 yds · 4:4469% → 85%
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
70.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Thomas Lucas, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
68.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-5
69.8%
SHIRREFFS, Byr. pass complete to THOMAS, Noel for 12 yards to the ARMY32, out-of-bounds (JACKSON, B.), PENALTY UCONN ineligible downfield on pass (MYERS, Tommy) 5 yards to the ARMY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+15
69.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 15 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+32
72.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 32 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
CONNDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 4:4784% → 85%
Q3 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
84.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 4 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
85.1%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+23
84.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 23 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-8
85.1%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
84.6%
Justin Wain punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
CONNDrive 16FG11 plays · 34 yds · 5:0489% → 96%
Q4 10:37
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+12
88.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 12 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-7
89.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the Army 19 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive holding (Noel Thomas) to the Army 29Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
88.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 9 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-2
88.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:424% → 15%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Kelvin White, broken up by Luke CarrezolaSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Kelvin White for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
84.7%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Joe Walker for 71 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1887% → 90%
Q4 2:33
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
90.1%
Justin Wain punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
CONNDrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 2:21
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
91.3%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, delay of game (Bryant Shirreffs) to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:10
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q4 4:51
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Joe Walker for 71 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 8:48
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-10.8