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FOR

Fordham 37 at Army 35

ARMY
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadFOR aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreFOR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:57 · Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds, downed at the Fordh 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+4.4Home team on offense−15.4Garbage-time factor−7.7Score differential−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:07: Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Makay Redd KICK) — FOR win probability +12.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q3 10:19: TEAM run for a loss of 35 yards for a SAFETY — FOR win probability +10.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:00: Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +22.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Chase Edmonds run for 10 yds for a TD, (J. Pavlik Run For Two-point Conversion) — FOR win probability +31.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:33: Edgar Poe 27 Yd pass from Ahmad Bradshaw (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARMY win probability +36.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FOR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:08FOR 4th & 5 at ARMY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q3 14:52ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:30FOR 4th & 3 at FOR 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:13FOR 4th & 8 at FOR 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:57ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:40FOR 4th & 18 at FOR 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:07FOR 4th & 27 at ARMY 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:27FOR 4th & 18 at FOR 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−6.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:55ARMY 4th & 4 at FOR 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.5%−11.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FOR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:21ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:03FOR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:29ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:28FOR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:17ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:07FOR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:00ARMY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:04FOR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:33ARMY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.0%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FORDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.8%
Kevin Anderson sacked by Bayle Wolf for 0 yards to the Fordh 8 Kevin Anderson fumbled, recovered by Army Andrew King , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0972% → 72%
Q1 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
71.8%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fordh 9Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
71.8%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Fordh 8Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Joe Walker for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0828% → 30%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
72.0%
Kevin Anderson run for 1 yd to the Fordh 24Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+8
72.0%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Robbie Cantelli for 8 yds to the Fordh 32Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+46
72.0%
Chase Edmonds run for 46 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
71.8%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Austin Longi for 18 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
71.8%
FORDHAM Penalty, false start (Ben Hartman) to the Army 9Similar
Q1 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
71.8%
FORDHAM Penalty, false start (Sam Marlin) to the Army 14Similar
Q1 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+8
71.8%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 8 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.3%
Kevin Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Makay Redd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3471% → 73%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.0%
FORDHAM Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
71.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to John Trainor for 28 yds to the Fordh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
71.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Fordh 40Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
71.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Fordh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
71.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 15 yds to the Fordh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
73.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 5TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4828% → 31%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
72.5%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Phazahn Odom for 29 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
71.8%
Kendall Pearcey run for 11 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
71.8%
Chase Edmonds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 23Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+14
71.9%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 14 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.8%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Phazahn OdomSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
71.8%
FORDHAM Penalty, delay of game (Kevin Anderson) to the Army 14Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
72.1%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Corey CaddleSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
69.3%
Chase Edmonds run for 14 yds for a TD, (Makay Redd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2070% → 70%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
70.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-14
70.5%
Bradshaw, Ahmad pass complete to White, Kelvin for 11 yards to the ARMY39 (Fulmore, Marcus), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Campbell, Tyler) 14 yards to the ARMY14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 14
-7
70.0%
Bradshaw, Ahmad rush for 9 yards to the ARMY23 (Crook, Marlon), PENALTY ARMY holding (Gilbert, Justin) 7 yards to the ARMY7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 24
OWN 7
+12
69.9%
Joe Walker run for 12 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+28
69.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 28 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
70.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
50
-6
71.1%
John Trainor run for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 44 John Trainor fumbled, recovered by Army John TrainorSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+5
69.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Tyler Campbell for 5 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
-2
69.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 42 yds , Corey Caddle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Fordh 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 7FG
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:5331% → 35%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+87
68.8%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 87 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.3%
Kendall Pearcey run for 4 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
66.3%
Kevin Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 5 Kevin Anderson fumbled, recovered by Fordh Austin LongiSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.8%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Phazahn OdomSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
65.5%
Makay Redd 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:4267% → 73%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
67.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
67.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 2
50
+12
68.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the Fordh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
68.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Fordh 36Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
68.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Fordh 31Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+15
68.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 15 yds to the Fordh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
69.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Fordh 13Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
69.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Fordh 10Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-5
68.4%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to the Fordh 15Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
73.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 9TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:0228% → 45%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
71.6%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Robbie Cantelli for 24 yds to the Fordh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
70.1%
Kevin Anderson sacked by Chris Carnegie for a loss of 3 yards to the Fordh 36Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+8
71.4%
Kevin Anderson run for 8 yds to the Fordh 44Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-5
69.8%
FORDHAM Penalty, false start (Anthony Coyle) to the Fordh 39Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+17
71.2%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Ben Johnson for 17 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
69.2%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Phazahn Odom for 34 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
68.2%
Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd to the Army 9Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
68.2%
Kevin Anderson run for 8 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.7%
Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Makay Redd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:2759% → 59%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Joe Walker, broken up by Stephen HodgeSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
58.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+13
57.4%
Joe Walker run for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
59.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted JQ Bowers return for 14 yds to the Army 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 11FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2747% → 53%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
52.9%
Chase Edmonds run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
53.5%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Phazahn Odom, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+27
54.2%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Phazahn Odom for 27 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
53.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 10Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
46.7%
Makay Redd 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
53.7%
Joe Walker run for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
53.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 42 yds , Corey Caddle returns for 14 yds to the Fordh 46 FORDHAM Penalty, illegal block (Jihaad Pretlow) to the Fordh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
49.0%
Chase Edmonds run for 6 yds to the Fordh 36Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
47.8%
Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd to the Fordh 37Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
48.4%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Phazahn OdomSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
49.8%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 36 yds , Edgar Poe returns for no gain to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14SF
5 plays · -27 yds · 2:1153% → 42%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
52.5%
FORDHAM Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the Army 32Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+5
54.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
53.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Aaron KemperSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-35
42.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 35 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.0%
Chase Edmonds run for 5 yds to the Fordh 40Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-3
39.8%
Kendall Pearcey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fordh 37Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
41.4%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Corey Caddle, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+2
43.2%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 36 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:5243% → 67%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
42.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Joe Walker, broken up by Marcus FulmoreSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
43.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
45.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the Fordh 45Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
43.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the Fordh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
43.3%
John Trainor run for 6 yds to the Fordh 33Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+8
44.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the Fordh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
44.9%
Jordan Asberry run for 24 yds to the Fordh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 17TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 6:4742% → 81%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
57.9%
Kevin Anderson sacked by John Voit for a loss of 3 yards to the Fordh 15Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 13
OWN 15
-5
58.7%
FORDHAM Penalty, false start (Ben Hartman) to the Fordh 10Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+10
58.7%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 10 yds to the Fordh 20Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+13
59.8%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 13 yds to the Fordh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
56.6%
Chase Edmonds run for 4 yds to the Fordh 37Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
57.1%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 8 yds to the Fordh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Kevin Anderson run for no gain to the Fordh 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
56.4%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Robbie Cantelli for 13 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
53.4%
Chase Edmonds run for 15 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.7%
Chase Edmonds run for no gain to the Army 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
51.3%
Kevin Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
53.5%
Kevin Anderson pass complete to Ben Johnson for 12 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.7%
Chase Edmonds run for 5 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
18.9%
Chase Edmonds run for 10 yds for a TD, (J. Pavlik Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
28.0%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 28Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
28.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-4
27.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 28Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
25.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds, downed at the Fordh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0080% → 76%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
20.5%
Chase Edmonds run for 2 yds to the Fordh 30Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-15
20.5%
Anderson, Kevin pass complete to Odom, Phazahn for no gain to the FORDHAM30 (Long, Tevin), PENALTY FORDHAM face mask (Coyle, Anthony) 15 yards to the FORDHAM15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 23
OWN 15
0
22.0%
Kevin Anderson pass incomplete to Chase EdmondsSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+5
22.8%
Kevin Anderson run for 5 yds to the Fordh 20Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
23.6%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 43 yds , Edgar Poe returns for no gain to the Army 35 Edgar Poe fumbled, recovered by Fordh Stephen HodgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0087% → 83%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
12.8%
Chase Edmonds run for 12 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
12.6%
Chase Edmonds run for 3 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
12.6%
Kevin Anderson run for 6 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-21
12.9%
Chase Edmonds run for a loss of 21 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 22
OPP 35
-5
17.2%
FORDHAM Penalty, delay of game (Kevin Anderson) to the Army 40Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 27
OPP 40
0
16.9%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 30 yds, downed at the Army 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:4715% → 55%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
15.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 8Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
14.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Caleb HamSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+13
13.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
15.3%
John Trainor run for 19 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
18.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 33 yds to the Fordh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
54.9%
Edgar Poe 27 Yd pass from Ahmad Bradshaw (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0577% → 69%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
23.4%
Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-7
21.9%
Kevin Anderson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Fordh 47Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+3
27.5%
Chase Edmonds run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 13
50
-5
29.6%
FORDHAM Penalty, delay of game (Kevin Anderson) to the Fordh 45Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
30.8%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
29.5%
Kelvin White pass complete to Xavier Moss for 26 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.4%
Kelvin White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
33.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Dylan MabinSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
30.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Joe Walker for 6 yds to the Fordh 47Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
32.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Joe WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Fordh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:33
Edgar Poe 27 Yd pass from Ahmad Bradshaw (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+36.9
TD · Q4 12:04
Chase Edmonds run for 10 yds for a TD, (J. Pavlik Run For Two-point Conversion)
-31.9
TD · Q3 4:00
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion)
+22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com