Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 36 at Stanford 38

STAN
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:48: Michael Rector 14 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick) — STAN win probability +16.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:24: Josh Adams 62 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ND win probability +15.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Austin Hooper 10 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick) — STAN win probability +23.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:30: DeShone Kizer 2 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +58.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +57.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 12:26ND 4th & 6 at STAN 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−4.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:21STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:02ND 4th & 4 at STAN 7, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:23STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 27, up 1
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:03ND 4th & 6 at STAN 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−9.2
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:53ND 4th & 4 at ND 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:40STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 29, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:15ND 4th & 10 at ND 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:48STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 38, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:35ND 4th & 1 at STAN 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−13.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−16.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:29STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:18ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:54STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:15ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:48STAN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:58STAN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:24ND Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55STAN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:30ND Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−9.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2645% → 49%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
45.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
45.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
45.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+5
45.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
45.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-1
46.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+16
46.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 16 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.9%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.2%
Remound Wright 1 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 7:0947% → 55%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
46.5%
Bryce Love run for 10 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
46.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
46.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+31
46.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 31 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
47.6%
Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-2
48.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+10
48.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
49.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
49.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
49.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerry Tillery) to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
49.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
50.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.6%
Devon Cajuste 6 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1147% → 48%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
53.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 23 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
52.7%
Josh Adams run for 14 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
52.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+7
52.6%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
52.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+10
52.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 10 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
52.4%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
52.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
53.9%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-5
54.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Nick Martin) to the Stanf 9Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
52.2%
Justin Yoon 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5153% → 54%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
52.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
52.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 12 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
54.4%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
54.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
55.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Remound WrightSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
54.2%
Alex Robinson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6FG
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:1543% → 48%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
56.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+13
57.0%
Josh Adams run for 13 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
56.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brennan Scarlett) to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+20
55.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 20 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
55.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
54.8%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+11
55.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 11 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
53.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 13 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
54.2%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
54.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
56.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
52.4%
Justin Yoon 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3256% → 55%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
55.7%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Greer Martini for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 17
OWN 14
-1
55.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+14
55.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 14 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+3
54.9%
Alex Robinson punt for 39 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 3 yds to the NDame 30 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (Nyles Morgan) to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
39.4%
Will Fuller 73 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2042% → 61%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
42.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 12 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
44.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 38 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
60.8%
Michael Rector 14 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:2445% → 51%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
54.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+48
55.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 48 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
49.1%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Stanf 22 DeShone Kizer fumbled, forced by Brennan Scarlett, recovered by Stanf Solomon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
56.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:4645% → 55%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
54.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+7
54.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 7 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
54.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 22 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
51.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 9 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+10
51.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 10 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
50.6%
Josh Adams run for 17 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
50.2%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
50.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
51.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
44.9%
Justin Yoon 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:5347% → 67%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
47.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.4%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
50.9%
Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+42
49.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 42 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
53.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Remound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:2038% → 55%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
61.8%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
61.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
62.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 9 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
60.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
45.0%
Josh Adams 62 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:0749% → 78%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
49.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
49.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
50.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 43 lat. to Bryce Love for 8 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
52.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
51.9%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
52.4%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Cajuste, Devon, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Butler, Devin) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
54.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+21
54.3%
Bryce Love run for 21 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
54.4%
Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
77.9%
Austin Hooper 10 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5334% → 31%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
67.2%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
66.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+6
68.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 52 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 6 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0875% → 78%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
75.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
77.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
77.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
77.7%
Alex Robinson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1830% → 24%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
70.0%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-4
69.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
72.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
75.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:2382% → 84%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
82.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
83.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
84.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+5
84.4%
Alex Robinson punt for 55 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 5 yds to the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 6:0024% → 84%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
75.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 14 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
75.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
76.0%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
75.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+22
77.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 22 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
72.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
69.2%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
70.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
71.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 8 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
71.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 8 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
70.0%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 10Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
71.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+6
75.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 6 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.7%
DeShone Kizer 2 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:2040% → 96%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
39.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Isaac Rochell) to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+27
32.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 27 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
41.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+45
95.6%
Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
DeShone Kizer 2 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
-58
FG · Q4 0:00
Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOOD
+57.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Austin Hooper 10 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)
+23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com