Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 21 at USC 40

USC
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:27 · Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, downed at the UCLA 49 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCLA 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−2.3Pregame prior+4.5Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:49: Thomas Duarte 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Adoree' Jackson 42 Yd Punt Return (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +16.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:38: Paul Perkins 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +15.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:16: Rasheem Green 31 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +12.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:44: Darreus Rogers 20 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +13.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:10USC 4th & 11 at USC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:22UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54USC 4th & 5 at UCLA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31UCLA 4th & 3 at USC 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:29USC 4th & 3 at USC 9, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:26UCLA 4th & 1 at USC 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:24USC 4th & 6 at USC 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:57UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:28USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:46USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−2.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:47USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 4, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−7.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:44UCLA 4th & 24 at UCLA 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−4.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:55UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:16USC 4th & 6 at USC 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:27UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 40, down 6
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:10USC 4th & 1 at USC 25, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:27USC 4th & 18 at USC 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−5.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:00UCLA 4th & 15 at USC 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−4.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:39USC 4th & 6 at USC 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:04UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:26UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:04USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:49UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:44USC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:38UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:16USC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:44USC Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:18USC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3862% → 62%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.3%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 19Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
62.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
62.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
62.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4138% → 38%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 3 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
62.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
62.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+4
62.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 40 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:2262% → 63%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
62.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
62.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
62.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
62.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
62.6%
UCLA Penalty, Delay of Game (Kenny Clark) to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+11
62.7%
Dominic Davis run for 11 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
62.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
62.8%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+6
62.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 6 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
62.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
63.0%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
62.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
63.0%
Alex Wood 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0338% → 38%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
62.5%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
62.6%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
62.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
61.9%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
61.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
61.8%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
62.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 38 yds, downed at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5762% → 62%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
62.3%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
62.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Jahleel PinnerSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+1
61.8%
Cody Kessler run for 1 yd to the USC 9Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
61.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:5438% → 41%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
61.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
61.7%
Paul Perkins run for 13 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
61.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
61.3%
Josh Rosen run for 9 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
61.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
58.8%
Paul Perkins 19 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5059% → 58%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
59.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
59.1%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
58.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
58.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1442% → 42%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
57.9%
Nate Starks run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
57.8%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
57.6%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
58.1%
Matt Mengel punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:4659% → 65%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
58.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 28 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
59.9%
Tre Madden run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
60.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
60.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 34 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
60.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
60.7%
Adoree' Jackson run for no gain to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
59.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 7 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
58.0%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.7%
Tre Madden run for no gain to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.9%
Cody Kessler 1 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 1:5838% → 47%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
62.5%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+27
62.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 27 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.6%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+17
61.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 17 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
59.6%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
59.3%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
52.8%
Thomas Duarte 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:4955% → 59%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
55.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
55.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
54.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
55.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 17 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
57.0%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
56.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
56.4%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
56.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
57.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
56.2%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+18
54.9%
Tre Madden run for 18 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
57.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chad Wheeler) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+3
57.1%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
57.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+9
55.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 9 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
58.5%
Alex Wood 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT TD
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:5346% → 28%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Su'a CravensSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
54.8%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-14
55.6%
Josh Rosen sacked by Scott Felix for a loss of 14 yards to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+42
71.8%
Adoree' Jackson 42 Yd Punt Return (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3631% → 29%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
69.4%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
69.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin Fuller, broken up by Isaiah LangleySimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Su'a CravensSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
71.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3270% → 69%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
70.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
71.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tyler Petite, broken up by Jaleel WadoodSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
70.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Randall GoforthSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
69.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:1130% → 32%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
69.8%
Nate Starks run for 12 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+30
68.5%
Nate Starks run for 30 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1932% → 31%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
67.6%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
67.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for no gain to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
69.0%
Matt Mengel punt for 44 yds, downed at the USC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0871% → 69%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
71.2%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
71.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
69.9%
Dominic Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 53 yds , Devin Fuller returns for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:2631% → 51%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
68.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 3 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+1
68.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+28
69.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 28 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
65.6%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+10
66.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 10 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
64.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 16 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
63.9%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+12
63.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.9%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Payton, Jordan, PENALTY USC pass interference (Seymour, Kevon) 1 yards to the USC1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.9%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.8%
Paul Perkins 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0456% → 53%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.5%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.2%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
53.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 17Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+42
52.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, downed at the UCLA 49 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-31
65.1%
Rasheem Green 31 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3233% → 36%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.4%
Josh Rosen run for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
66.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 15 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
63.2%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
63.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
63.8%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Iman Marshall return for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:4673% → 89%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
72.8%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
71.2%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+12
72.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 12 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.4%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
74.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
73.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.0%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.7%
Darreus Rogers 20 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:2315% → 14%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
85.0%
Paul Perkins run for 31 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
82.8%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Payton, Jordan, PENALTY USC holding (Marshall, Iman) 10 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
81.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 21 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
81.0%
Starks, Nate rush for 11 yards to the USC13, PENALTY UCLA illegal formation 5 yards to the USC29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
82.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
83.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Marvell Tell IIISimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
85.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1788% → 88%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.1%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+3
87.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+7
87.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:3115% → 12%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
85.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kolton Miller) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
87.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+5
88.1%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Payton, Jordan, PENALTY USC offside (Townsend Jr., Greg) 5 yards to the UCLA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-6
86.8%
Josh Rosen sacked by Olajuwon Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 34 UCLA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Josh Rosen) to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
88.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:3891% → 99%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
91.1%
Justin Davis run for 16 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
92.0%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
92.7%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
92.9%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
93.3%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+7
94.6%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
94.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
95.0%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
95.2%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
95.9%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Taylor McNamara 7 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+32
97.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Anthony Sarao) to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.2%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Iman Marshall return for no gain to the USC 20 Iman Marshall fumbled, forced by Jordan Payton, recovered by USC Iman MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:5699% → 100%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.3%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
99.4%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.4%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
99.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 34Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+12
99.4%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.6%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:44
Adoree' Jackson 42 Yd Punt Return (Alex Wood Kick)
+16.1
TD · Q3 8:38
Paul Perkins 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 1:44
Darreus Rogers 20 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com