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ASU

Arizona State 46 at California 48

CAL
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:00 · Cole Leininger punt for 14 yds, downed at the ArzSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−8.4Pregame prior+7.9Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:31: Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +19.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:13: Khalfani Muhammad 58 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CAL win probability +23.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:05: Darius Powe 49 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Run for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +37.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:35: Raymond Epps 4 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +44.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal — CAL win probability +39.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:05ASU 4th & 1 at CAL 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32ASU 4th & 3 at CAL 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42CAL 4th & 12 at ASU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:42ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 5 at ASU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:00CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:31ASU 4th & 16 at CAL 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:31CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−5.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:05CAL 4th & 2 at midfield, down 17
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:37ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:46ASU 4th & 6 at CAL 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41ASU 4th & 5 at CAL 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−10.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:55ASU 4th & 5 at CAL 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−20.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:43ASU 4th & 4 at CAL 4, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−18.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:54ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:00ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:46ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:06CAL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:04CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:36CAL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:31CAL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:13CAL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:05CAL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:35ASU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:2838% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
61.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-5
61.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
61.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
61.6%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+30
61.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 30 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
61.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+1
61.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
60.8%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
60.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody Kohl, broken up by Jalen JeffersonSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
60.7%
Zane Gonzalez 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:4461% → 61%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+34
60.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 34 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
61.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
61.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+11
61.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 11 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
61.6%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Anderson, Stephen for 10 yards to the ASU11 (Brown, Kweishi), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Harris, Maurice) 15 yards to the ASU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 25
OPP 36
+2
61.1%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 23
OPP 34
0
61.3%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 23
OPP 34
+11
60.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+39
60.8%
Matt Anderson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
60.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.6%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
60.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
60.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
60.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
60.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
60.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin Lucien, broken up by Darius WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+2
61.3%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds , Kanawai Noa returns for 2 yds to the Cal 10 Kanawai Noa fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Marcus BallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3542% → 46%
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
58.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
53.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 9 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:4955% → 55%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.1%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
55.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
55.8%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+29
55.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 29 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
57.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
56.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
56.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
55.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:4747% → 58%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
53.5%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
53.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+9
53.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 9 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
52.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Kody Kohl) to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
53.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+26
52.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 26 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
52.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 24 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
52.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 15 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
44.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
44.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
44.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
-5
44.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
43.4%
Cole Leininger punt for 14 yds, downed at the ArzSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1259% → 72%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
41.4%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
41.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+9
41.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 9 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
27.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 36 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4032% → 41%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
33.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
34.1%
Jared Goff run for 3 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
41.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 52 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:2961% → 69%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
39.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
38.7%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
38.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 16 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
37.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+19
38.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 19 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
37.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
37.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. Foster, broken up by Cameron WalkerSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-7
38.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Trevor Kelly for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
31.0%
Zane Gonzalez 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
33.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
34.2%
Cole Leininger punt for 49 yds, downed at the ArzSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4972% → 73%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
28.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Todd Barr for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 19
OWN 8
+6
28.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-3
26.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Cameron Saffle for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 16
OWN 11
0
27.4%
Matt Haack punt for 47 yds, downed at the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 36%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
40.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor Davis, broken up by Lloyd CarringtonSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
40.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 2
50
0
35.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Chad AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
50
0
35.7%
Jared Goff punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
24.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.9%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
29.9%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
29.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
30.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
30.5%
Cole Leininger punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
26.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-2
26.4%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
27.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete, broken up by James LooneySimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
27.7%
Matt Haack punt for 73 yds, downed at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:1726% → 41%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+52
25.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 52 yds to the CALIFORNIA 42 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
27.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 12 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+25
28.5%
Tre Watson run for 25 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:0765% → 73%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
35.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
35.2%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
34.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
35.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
34.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 26 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
35.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen Ballage, broken up by Stefan McClureSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
34.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to DJ CalhounSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
27.5%
Zane Gonzalez 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1031% → 49%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.7%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+49
30.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 49 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
35.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
35.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by DJ CalhounSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
35.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
49.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5560% → 66%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
40.0%
Demario Richard run for 22 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
37.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Raymond Epps for 25 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
36.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
36.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
37.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
33.6%
Zane Gonzalez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1035% → 61%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.1%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
35.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
36.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+20
35.1%
Jared Goff run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
38.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
38.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 9 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
41.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 21 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 6:2952% → 69%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
47.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 16 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
47.0%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+7
48.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+11
48.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
43.8%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Kyle Kragen for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+8
47.1%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
44.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
42.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
43.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 6 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
43.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
41.5%
Bercovici, Mike pass complete to Lucien, Devin for 3 yards to the CAL28 (McClure, Stefan), PENALTY ASU illegal formation 5 yards to the CAL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
43.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+15
43.9%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to White, Tim (McClure, Stefan), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Austin, Jack) 15 yards to the CAL21, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
41.3%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
41.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
43.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Raymond EppsSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
30.8%
Zane Gonzalez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:3540% → 67%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
40.4%
Tre Watson run for 13 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
66.6%
Khalfani Muhammad 58 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:2339% → 58%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
61.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+51
58.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 51 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
55.2%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Raymond EppsSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
41.9%
Zane Gonzalez 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3851% → 90%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.3%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
52.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for no gain to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
49.2%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
52.6%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad (Brown, Kweishi), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Brown, Kweishi) 15 yards to the ASU49, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
90.1%
Darius Powe 49 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2318% → 69%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
82.5%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
81.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. Foster, broken up by Darius WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
80.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Raymond Epps for 8 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
78.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+42
78.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 42 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.9%
Raymond Epps 4 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:2949% → 95%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
49.2%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny, PENALTY ASU offside (Wicker, JoJo) 5 yards to the CAL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 5
OWN 27
0
53.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+15
50.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 15 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
54.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 17 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
56.4%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-1
59.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+13
49.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 13 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
52.8%
Tre Watson run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
52.8%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
94.9%
Matt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:35
Raymond Epps 4 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
-44.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Matt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal
+39.9
TD · Q4 6:05
Darius Powe 49 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+37.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com