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CAL

California 22 at Stanford 35

STAN
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:44 · Alex Robinson punt for 35 yds , Kanawai Noa returns for 13 yds to the Stanf 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense+30.7Score differential+19.8Garbage-time factor+14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:12: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 49 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:51: Matt Anderson 28 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +3.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: Matt Anderson kickoff for 63 yds , Christian McCaffrey return for 98 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +8.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:54: Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +12.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:23: Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +11.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 12:09STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:05CAL 4th & 3 at STAN 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:09STAN 4th & 1 at CAL 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:13STAN 4th & 3 at CAL 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:15CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51CAL 4th & 3 at STAN 11, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:55CAL 4th & 2 at STAN 8, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:37STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 43, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:59CAL 4th & 15 at STAN 22, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:12CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 39, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:44STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 26, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:25STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:12STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38STAN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:54CAL Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:23STAN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:13STAN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:44CAL Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3579% → 78%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
78.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
78.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+4
78.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
78.3%
Alex Robinson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4622% → 22%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
78.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Chris Borrayo) to the Cal 5Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+4
78.3%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
78.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+7
78.2%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
78.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 36 yds, downed at the Stanf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:4778% → 80%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
78.2%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
78.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+24
77.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 24 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
78.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
77.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
77.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.7%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 6:0721% → 24%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
78.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 8 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
78.5%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+17
78.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 17 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
78.2%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Treggs, Bryce for 4 yards to the STANFORD37, PENALTY CALIFORNIA illegal motion (Watson, Tre) 5 yards to the STANFORD46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+15
78.6%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harris, Maurice, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Martinez, Blake) 15 yards to the STANFORD31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
77.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-8
77.6%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Watson, Tre for 6 yards to the STANFORD23, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding (Powe, Darius) 8 yards to the STANFORD37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+19
78.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 19 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.2%
Jared Goff run for no gain to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
77.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+11
77.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 11 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
76.9%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 3Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q1 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
75.6%
Matt Anderson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:4276% → 76%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
76.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
76.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
76.4%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
76.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
76.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
75.9%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
76.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
76.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
76.4%
Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 32 yds, downed at the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:4725% → 27%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
75.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 9 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-1
74.3%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+7
75.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
74.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
73.1%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
73.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 7 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-15
72.6%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Treggs, Bryce for 7 yards to the STANFORD48, PENALTY CALIFORNIA pass interference (Davis, Trevor) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+15
75.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 15 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
73.5%
Harry Adolphus punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:5775% → 83%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
75.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
76.5%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+49
83.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 49 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 3:1118% → 21%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
82.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
82.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+21
82.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 21 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
81.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bug Rivera for 9 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
80.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+11
82.1%
Vic Enwere pass complete to Jared Goff for 11 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
81.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 8 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
81.2%
Tre Watson run for 8 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
81.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 7 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
81.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
82.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
78.9%
Matt Anderson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
87.4%
Vic Enwere run for 9 yds to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0013% → 16%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 9 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+28
86.2%
Tre Watson run for 28 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
86.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 23 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
85.0%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
85.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the Stanf 8Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
84.0%
Matt Anderson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0587% → 87%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
86.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
86.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
87.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
87.2%
Alex Robinson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kanawai Noa at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 4:3614% → 25%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
85.7%
Jared Goff sacked by Aziz Shittu and Solomon Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+9
85.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+15
86.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 15 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 9 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
84.6%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
85.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-13
85.7%
Jared Goff sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 13 yards to the STANFORD 39 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jared Goff) to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+19
87.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 19 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
85.6%
Tre Watson run for 17 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
84.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 20 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.6%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:2078% → 93%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
77.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+14
78.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
79.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
80.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
79.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
80.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
79.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
81.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+12
81.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 12 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15DOWNS
17 plays · 64 yds · 5:119% → 6%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
91.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 18 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
91.6%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
91.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 9 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
90.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Rigsbee) to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+8
92.0%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+11
91.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 11 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
90.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
91.7%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
92.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 12 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-15
92.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for no gain to the Stanf 17 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominic Granado) to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 25
OPP 32
+10
93.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 10 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 15
OPP 22
0
94.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:3895% → 99%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
94.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
94.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
95.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
95.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
98.9%
Bryce Love run for 48 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:482% → 2%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.0%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+1
99.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+5
99.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+13
99.1%
Alex Robinson punt for 35 yds , Kanawai Noa returns for 13 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:492% → 3%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 6 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
98.2%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
98.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+31
96.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2998% → 98%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
98.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 23 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:54
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q4 14:23
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q2 0:38
Matt Anderson kickoff for 63 yds , Christian McCaffrey return for 98 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com