Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 17 at Utah 9

UTAH
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.3UTAH 40.6%Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 4:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:01 · Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−3.0Garbage-time factor−0.8Pregame prior−6.3Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:38: Andy Phillips 39 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +7.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:39: Andy Phillips 21 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +3.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 5:17: Paul Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +15.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:46: Timeout UTAH, clock 01:46 — UCLA win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01: Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 42 — UCLA win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 4:01UCLA 4th & 14 at UTAH 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−2.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:17UTAH 4th & 6 at UCLA 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:11UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38UTAH 4th & 3 at UCLA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:39UTAH 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−11.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:17UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:48UCLA 4th & 23 at UCLA 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 29, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:17UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:36UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 42, down 8
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:58UCLA 4th & 13 at UTAH 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:58UTAH 4th & 26 at UTAH 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:17UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:46UTAH 4th & 9 at UCLA 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:07UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:13UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:17UCLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:4758% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+33
42.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 33 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.3%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
0
42.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete, broken up by Kylie FittsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+16
42.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 16 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
42.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+28
42.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 28 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2FUMBLE
14 plays · 61 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.2%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
42.3%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
42.3%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
42.3%
Wilson, Travis pass intercepted by Goforth at the UTAH45, Goforth return to the UTAH32 (Dielman, J.J.), PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Brown) 9 yards to the UTAH47, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
42.4%
Britain Covey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 7
50
+8
42.4%
Joe Williams run for 8 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
42.4%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+16
42.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Joe Williams for 16 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
42.5%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
42.5%
Travis Wilson sacked by Kene Orjioke and Jayon Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+11
42.4%
Travis Wilson run for 11 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
42.5%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+1
42.5%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14 Joe Williams fumbled, forced by Kene Orjioke, recovered by UCLA Randall GoforthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4459% → 59%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
41.4%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+37
41.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 37 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
40.7%
Josh Rosen run for 3 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
40.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 9 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
40.6%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
40.6%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+17
40.7%
Paul Perkins run for 17 yds to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
40.6%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the Utah 11Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
40.6%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 15Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
40.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete, broken up by Dominique HatfieldSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+33
40.6%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Britain Covey run for 1 yd to the Utah 26Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
40.8%
Joe Williams run for 8 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
40.9%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
40.6%
Tom Hackett punt for 51 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5761% → 60%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
39.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
39.6%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+17
40.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 17 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
39.0%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-10
39.4%
Rosen rush for 10 yards to the UCLA45 (Thomas, Justin), PENALTY UCLA holding (Benenoch) 10 yards to the UCLA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+9
39.3%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
39.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+2
39.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 46 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 2 yds to the Utah 36 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 7:4438% → 39%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
37.9%
Travis Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
37.8%
Travis Wilson run for 3 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+12
37.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 12 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
38.1%
Bubba Poole run for 3 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
38.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 4 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+13
38.0%
Travis Wilson run for 13 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
39.1%
Wilson, Travis rush for 9 yards to the UCLA44 (Adams), PENALTY UTAH holding (Lutui, Hiva) 10 yards to the UTAH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+20
38.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Harrison Handley for 20 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
39.4%
Wilson, Travis pass complete to Scott, Kenneth for 42 yards to the UCLA1 (Adams), PENALTY UTAH holding (Poole, Bubba) 10 yards to the UTAH47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+6
38.7%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+6
38.9%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
39.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 5 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+10
38.5%
Wilson, Travis sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UCLA39 (Brown;Hollins), PENALTY UCLA holding (Rios) 10 yards to the UCLA26, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
40.1%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.1%
Travis Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
39.3%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Harrison HandleySimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
38.8%
Andy Phillips 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
36.3%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
35.5%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
36.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:2637% → 44%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
37.0%
Joe Williams run for 11 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
37.3%
Williams, Joe rush for no gain to the UTAH18 (Brown), PENALTY UCLA personal foul (Brown) 15 yards to the UTAH33, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
37.8%
Joe Williams run for 13 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
39.4%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
39.3%
Travis Wilson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
40.1%
Joe Williams run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
40.3%
Travis Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
41.4%
Travis Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
41.4%
Bubba Poole run for 2 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
40.1%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth Scott, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
38.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Joe Williams for 5 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
44.2%
Andy Phillips 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
40.6%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:2143% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
42.7%
Joe Williams run for 13 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
43.8%
Joe Williams run for 7 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
45.5%
Travis Wilson run for 2 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+10
45.1%
Joe Williams run for 10 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
46.3%
Joe Williams run for 13 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.9%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Bubba PooleSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
47.8%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+7
46.0%
Travis Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
47.9%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+11
47.9%
Joe Williams run for 11 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
47.9%
Travis Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
47.9%
Travis Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
46.0%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
49.5%
Andy Phillips 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 3:1555% → 74%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
45.2%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
45.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 10 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
43.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
42.1%
Josh Rosen run for 4 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
42.5%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
42.1%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
41.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete, broken up by Kylie FittsSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
41.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Marcus Rios, broken up by Brian AllenSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+12
43.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
41.7%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+8
41.7%
Paul Perkins run for 8 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
41.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete, broken up by Kylie FittsSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
41.7%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Utah 2Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.5%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.7%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Harrison Handley for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
30.7%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Joe Williams, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
27.1%
Tom Hackett punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
25.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 8 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
25.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
24.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
24.3%
Josh Rosen sacked by Stevie Tu'ikolovatu for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 18
OWN 32
-5
26.7%
Jamabo rush for 11 yards to the UCLA43 (Fitts, Kylie;Williams,Marcus), PENALTY UCLA illegal formation (Benenoch) 5 yards to the UCLA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 23
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Jared NorrisSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 23
OWN 27
0
27.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 23
OWN 27
0
28.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1526% → 25%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
26.4%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 19Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
26.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Joe Williams for 6 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
25.4%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Joe Williams for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
25.2%
Tom Hackett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
23.2%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
22.7%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+2
23.0%
Josh Rosen run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 26 Josh Rosen fumbled, recovered by UCLA Paul Perkins , return for 2 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+1
25.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 1 yd to the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
24.1%
Joe Williams run for 5 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
26.3%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 42Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
25.0%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
23.1%
Tom Hackett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:1880% → 84%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
19.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 12 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
19.2%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
19.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 4 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+8
19.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 8 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
17.5%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
16.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 5 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
16.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Evan EggimanSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
16.6%
Rosen pass incomplete to Duarte (Williams,Marcus), PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Eggiman, Evan) 15 yards to the UTAH28, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
15.8%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
15.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
16.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Cory Butler-ByrdSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
15.7%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.1%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Joe WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
19.6%
Bubba Poole run for no gain to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-16
18.4%
Travis Wilson sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 16 yards to the Utah 15Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 26
OWN 15
0
17.3%
Tom Hackett punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
11.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
11.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+12
12.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
11.2%
Paul Perkins run for 8 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
10.3%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-3
11.3%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
12.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 50 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the Utah 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20FUMBLE
14 plays · 48 yds · 1:2312% → 10%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
12.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 12 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
12.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Harrison Handley for 5 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
14.0%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Eli AnkouSimilar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
12.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 8 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
14.6%
Joe Williams run for 5 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
15.5%
Wilson, Travis pass incomplete to Scott, Kenneth, PENALTY UCLA holding (Rios) 10 yards to the UCLA44, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
16.4%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
10.4%
Travis Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
9.6%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Tyrone SmithSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+10
8.2%
Travis Wilson run for 10 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
13.1%
Travis Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
12.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Tyrone SmithSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
10.3%
Travis Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 36 Travis Wilson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Jayon BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5496% → 97%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
3.8%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
3.4%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
3.5%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+4
3.2%
Matt Mengel punt for 42 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 4 yds to the Utah 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:17
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-15.2
FG · Q2 0:38
Andy Phillips 39 yd FG GOOD
+7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 42
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com