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USC

USC 28 at Oregon 48

ORE
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:03 · Kris Albarado punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense+18.9Score differential+7.4Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9Time remaining+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 37 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +11.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:39: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kani Benoit for 30 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +8.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:35: Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 41 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +13.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:57: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 26 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +13.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:15USC 4th & 9 at ORE 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27USC 4th & 6 at USC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:08ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:15USC 4th & 5 at USC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:46USC 4th & 12 at USC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18USC 4th & 12 at USC 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:58ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:35USC 4th & 1 at USC 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:03USC 4th & 16 at ORE 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:35ORE 4th & 25 at ORE 2, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−2.5
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:41USC 4th & 3 at USC 39, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:56ORE 4th & 4 at USC 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:24USC 4th & 7 at ORE 28, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:25ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:32ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:13USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:35ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:39ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:25ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:40USC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:57ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:4049% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
51.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 9 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
51.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
51.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
51.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
51.5%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON roughing passer (Prevot, Torrodney) 15 yards to the OREGON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
51.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
51.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Ugo AmadiSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
51.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 9
OPP 31
0
51.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:4552% → 53%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 6 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
52.1%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
52.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 16 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
52.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Tyrell Crosby) to the USC 45Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+10
52.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 10 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
52.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
52.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Chris Hawkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4548% → 47%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.0%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
51.8%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 27Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
52.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Damien Mama) to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
52.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
52.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 42 yds, downed at the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3652% → 56%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
52.4%
Kirk Merritt run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+17
52.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 17 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
56.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 48 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2245% → 49%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.2%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
55.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
55.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
55.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tyler Petite, broken up by Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+12
55.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 12 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
55.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
55.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+7
56.3%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Mitchell Jr., Steven (Daniels, Reggie), PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Daniels, Reggie) 7 yards to the OREGON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
55.2%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+27
50.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
59.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 52 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0742% → 50%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.5%
Jalen Greene run for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
56.9%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
57.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
57.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
58.0%
Cody Kessler run for 10 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
57.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+25
57.3%
Justin Davis run for 25 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
56.7%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
50.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4754% → 54%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
53.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+14
53.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 14 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
54.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
55.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
55.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren Carrington, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+4
53.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 4 yds to the USC 23 Adoree' Jackson fumbled, recovered by USC Iman MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4448% → 47%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
52.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 16 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-9
50.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cody Kessler) to the USC 34Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+10
53.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 10 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
52.8%
Albarado, Kris punt 46 yards to the OREGON10, fair catch by Addison, Bralon, PENALTY OREGON running into kicker off-setting, PENALTY USC Kick Catching Interference (Seymour, Kevon) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
52.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:3154% → 66%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
54.4%
Taj Griffin run for 10 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
54.4%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+12
54.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
54.9%
Royce Freeman run for 30 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
65.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 37 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3238% → 35%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-6
61.8%
Cody Kessler sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
64.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
65.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds , Bralon Addison returns for no gain to the Oregn 22 USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5766% → 78%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
67.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
66.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 6 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
67.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 36 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
69.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-15
69.2%
OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyrell Crosby) to the USC 30Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 24
OPP 30
+30
77.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kani Benoit for 30 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0224% → 21%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
75.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
74.5%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
76.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+6
77.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
78.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
78.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FG
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:0980% → 83%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
79.7%
Royce Freeman run for 32 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
80.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 28 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
82.9%
Aidan Schneider 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3082% → 93%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
81.5%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+18
81.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 18 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
82.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
82.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
83.6%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+16
84.4%
Kani Benoit run for 16 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
85.4%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
93.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 21 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:337% → 17%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+38
92.8%
Justin Davis run for 38 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
92.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 14 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
92.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
82.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2688% → 89%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-8
89.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Olajuwon Tucker and Porter Gustin for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+41
88.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 yds, downed at the OREGON 39 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Iman Marshall) to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:4814% → 9%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
87.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 24Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+8
87.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+6
88.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
88.5%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
88.4%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+17
88.0%
Justin Davis run for 17 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
88.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-15
89.5%
USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chad Wheeler) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
91.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3891% → 92%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
91.3%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
91.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-3
91.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Anthony Sarao for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 14
OWN 13
-11
92.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Olajuwon Tucker for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 1:35
4TH & 25
OWN 2
+41
78.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 41 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2082% → 82%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
81.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Taj Griffin for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
82.1%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
82.3%
Bralon Addison run for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
83.2%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
82.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5417% → 18%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
82.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chad Wheeler) to the USC 15Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
83.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 10Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+12
83.0%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
83.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 7 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
82.7%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
82.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Arrion Springs for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 26 Cody Kessler fumbled, forced by Arrion Springs, recovered by Oregn DeForest Buckner at the USC26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
95.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 26 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:496% → 5%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
94.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-4
94.5%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 45 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 35Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+4
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
95.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:2096% → 99%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
95.7%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+14
95.8%
Adams Jr., Vernon pass incomplete to Carrington, Darren, PENALTY USC pass interference (Seymour, Kevon) 14 yards to the OREGON46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
96.2%
Royce Freeman run for 17 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
96.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
96.3%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Anthony Sarao) to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
96.5%
Taj Griffin run for 15 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-12
96.6%
Bralon Addison sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
96.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 11 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
98.8%
Aidan Schneider 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 4:211% → 1%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 9 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
99.2%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+10
99.3%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
99.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 19
OPP 40
+5
99.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+7
99.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 7
OPP 28
-1
99.4%
Cody Kessler sacked by Joe Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 41 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q4 12:57
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 26 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 6:35
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 37 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com