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ARIZ

Arizona 37 at Arizona State 52

ASU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.7ASU 93.9%Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 31 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+21.4Pregame prior+8.9Score differential+14.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:07: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 59 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +6.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:33: Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +6.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:00: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +9.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:50: Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:47ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01ASU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:33ARIZ 4th & 9 at ASU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:21ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:52ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:20ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:07ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:47ARIZ 4th & 2 at ASU 5, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%−1.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 34, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00ASU 4th & 11 at ARIZ 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:32ARIZ 4th & 5 at ASU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:32ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:17ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:35ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 48, up 18
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:35ARIZ 4th & 14 at ASU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:35ASU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 39, up 15
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:07ASU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.3%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:42ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:30ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 24, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:05ARIZ 4th & 4 at ASU 29, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 3:01ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:07ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:27ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:33ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:00ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:46ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:14ASU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:50ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:33ASU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:30ASU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:32ARIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
67.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
67.6%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+21
67.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
67.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
67.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
67.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
67.6%
Matt Haack punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.3%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
67.3%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+10
67.3%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
67.0%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the Ariz 49 Jerrard Randall fumbled, forced by Christian Sam, recovered by ArzSt Viliami Moeakiola , return for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
67.6%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+10
67.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 10 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-9
67.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Reggie Gilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
66.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Jerrard Randall run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
66.4%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
66.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
66.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
66.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
66.7%
Mike Bercovici run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+7
66.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
66.7%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+1
66.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+4
66.1%
Matt Haack punt for 65 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0634% → 33%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
66.3%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
66.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
66.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+48
67.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds , Gump Hayes returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5567% → 72%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+58
66.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 58 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.9%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:4130% → 28%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.2%
[SG], PENALTY ARIZ false start (Maiava, L.) 5 yards to the ARIZ20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
70.3%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 6 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
70.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
71.6%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
71.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArzSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:5771% → 77%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
71.1%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+14
71.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 14 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
77.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 59 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
75.5%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
75.2%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
75.1%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
75.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12INT TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3977% → 72%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
77.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
77.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+21
71.8%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted for a TD Cam Denson return for 21 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:4772% → 81%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
71.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+11
71.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
71.9%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+37
72.6%
Demario Richard run for 37 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
73.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
73.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 10 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
73.1%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
74.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
73.6%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to Harvey, Jalen, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference (Neal, D.) 7 yards to the ARIZ2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.3%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.7%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:3921% → 27%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
79.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+26
78.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 26 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.4%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+28
78.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 28 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
77.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+6
77.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Darrell Cloy Jr. for 6 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
76.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
73.1%
Casey Skowron 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:3877% → 87%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
77.4%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
78.1%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
78.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 11 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
78.2%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+41
87.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.1%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
88.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
86.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds , Gump Hayes returns for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2287% → 94%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+65
86.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 65 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
87.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Ariz 9Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
86.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
93.9%
Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.3%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.2%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+6
93.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Paul Magloire Jr., recovered by Ariz DaVonte' NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:118% → 13%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
91.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 16 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
90.9%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 20 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, recovered by Ariz Brandon Dawkins , return for 0 yards , return for 10 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
91.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
87.3%
Casey Skowron 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. Foster, broken up by Tellas JonesSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
91.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by DeAndre' Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+20
90.5%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 20 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
89.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
89.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-6
89.5%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 13
OWN 49
+38
90.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARIZONAST 13 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:3593% → 93%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
92.5%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
92.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+26
93.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 26 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
93.7%
[NHSG], Richard,Demario rush for 3 yards to the ASU43 (Miller, D.), PENALTY ASU holding (Goodman, Evan) 10 yards to the ASU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+10
93.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
93.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
93.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+44
93.2%
Matt Haack punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the ARIZONAST 15 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Cam Denson) to the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:178% → 9%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
92.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 17 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.0%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+40
92.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 40 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
91.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-4
92.5%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Antonio Longino for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+15
93.0%
[NHSG], Dawkins, B. pass incomplete to Jones, C., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Carrington, L.) 15 yards to the ASU25, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
91.6%
Jared Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-3
91.8%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Antonio Longino and Salamo Fiso for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
92.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
90.6%
Casey Skowron 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.4%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
93.6%
Demario Richard run for 23 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
93.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
93.8%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
93.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
93.1%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 0:547% → 13%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
92.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+95
87.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 95 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:2487% → 97%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
87.1%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+3
86.7%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+17
86.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 17 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
88.2%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+7
87.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 7 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
87.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 5 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+10
89.3%
Mike Bercovici run for 10 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
90.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+23
91.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 11 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Tellas Jones) to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
91.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 11 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:243% → 11%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
97.4%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-8
97.5%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+43
97.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 43 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, IP (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 5
OPP 28
0
96.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+10
96.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
96.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
96.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
89.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
92.3%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+9
92.2%
D.J. Foster run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.8%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
92.9%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
92.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+51
91.9%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the ARIZONAST 12 ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:355% → 1%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
94.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
94.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Christian SamSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+21
99.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted for a TD Kareem Orr return for 21 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30INT TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:541% → 0%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Kweishi BrownSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 16 yds to the Ariz 24 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, forced by Kareem Orr,Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+38
99.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted for a TD Lloyd Carrington return for 38 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:580% → 2%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to David Richards for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.8%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Demetrius Cherry for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+14
99.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Jared Baker for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
99.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 9 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+5
99.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:00
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q4 6:50
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q2 10:33
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com