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ORE

Oregon 38 at Stanford 36

STAN
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:48: Darren Carrington 47 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +11.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:26: Royce Freeman 19 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +15.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:45: Taj Griffin 49 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +21.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:18: Greg Taboada 3 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick) — STAN win probability +18.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Greg Taboada 4 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +29.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:43STAN 4th & 3 at ORE 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:22ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:59STAN 4th & 6 at ORE 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q3 7:33STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 26, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−12.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:41ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:48STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−6.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:32ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−7.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:12ORE 4th & 5 at STAN 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−17.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:09ORE 4th & 19 at ORE 7, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:15ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:13STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:01ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:03STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:48ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:26ORE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:45ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:18STAN Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:10STAN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.2%−19.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:1074% → 73%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
73.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
73.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
73.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 3 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
73.6%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+16
73.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 16 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
73.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
73.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
73.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 5 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
73.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
73.4%
Christian McCaffrey pass incomplete to Kevin HoganSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-10
73.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Hooper) to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+10
72.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 10 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
73.2%
Conrad Ukropina 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0527% → 30%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
73.2%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+49
73.2%
Royce Freeman run for 49 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
72.2%
Kani Benoit run for 15 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
72.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Aziz Shittu) to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+12
72.0%
Bralon Addison run for 12 yds to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.9%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Stanf 2Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.7%
Kani Benoit 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5270% → 73%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
70.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
69.5%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Rector, Michael, PENALTY OREGON personal foul (Coleman, Tyson) 15 yards to the STANFORD41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
70.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 17 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
70.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-4
71.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+10
70.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 10 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
70.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
70.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Daniel Marx for 5 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
72.7%
Kevin Hogan 22 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
68.4%
Charles Nelson 75 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:3468% → 69%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
69.2%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Casey Tucker) to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
68.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
68.7%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
68.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 21 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
69.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
69.2%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Rodney Hardrick return for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4634% → 33%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
66.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-9
65.8%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bralon Addison) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+7
66.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-3
66.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Brennan Scarlett for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:1368% → 73%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
66.0%
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-5
66.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Shift (Devon Cajuste) to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+35
64.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 35 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
66.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
66.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
65.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
73.4%
Christian McCaffrey 11 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3130% → 33%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.5%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
69.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
69.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 13 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
68.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
50
+3
68.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+12
68.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+51
66.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Brennan Scarlett for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 9 Vernon Adams Jr. fumbled, forced by Brennan Scarlett, recovered by Stanf Kevin Anderson , return for 0 yards , return for 51 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0173% → 76%
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
73.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
73.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
75.9%
Conrad Ukropina 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4227% → 41%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
72.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+17
73.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 17 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
70.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+47
58.7%
Darren Carrington 47 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:3364% → 74%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
63.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
64.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 11 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
66.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
66.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
73.5%
Conrad Ukropina 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:1932% → 51%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
68.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 33 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
65.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+9
64.6%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
64.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 2 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
49.0%
Royce Freeman 19 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:3555% → 52%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
54.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
55.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
54.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
54.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
50
0
56.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
50
+5
55.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+11
55.5%
Kevin Hogan run for 11 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
57.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
56.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 8 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
54.4%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
52.2%
Conrad Ukropina 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4152% → 51%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
48.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
47.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-5
46.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
49.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:4350% → 43%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
49.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Casey Tucker) to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+2
47.7%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+8
46.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-4
45.4%
Kevin Hogan sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Alex Robinson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:5656% → 78%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
43.6%
Kani Benoit run for 15 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
42.4%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
43.0%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Alijah Holder) to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
22.0%
Taj Griffin 49 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1226% → 43%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
26.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
25.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 12 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
25.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
27.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
25.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 14 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
27.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+17
26.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 17 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
25.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.2%
Greg Taboada 3 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3067% → 66%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
33.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
31.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-6
33.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Brennan Scarlett and Joey Alfieri for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
34.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1038% → 37%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
37.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
40.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
39.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-1
36.6%
Kevin Hogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 47 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tyson ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:4879% → 90%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
21.4%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
19.8%
Charles Nelson run for 13 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
18.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
18.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
19.8%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
10.2%
Aidan Schneider 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:0014% → 13%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
14.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 17 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
17.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
18.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 18 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
20.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
19.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-2
12.6%
Kevin Hogan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 16 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by Oregn Torrodney PrevotSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:5495% → 95%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
5.5%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+3
4.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-9
4.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Kodi Whitfield for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 19
OWN 7
-5
4.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23TD
12 plays · 49 yds · 0:538% → 40%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
6.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 14 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
8.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
8.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+11
7.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 11 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
9.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
9.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+15
7.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ugo Amadi) to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
10.7%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 4Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.1%
Greg Taboada 4 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:10
Greg Taboada 4 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+29.3
TD · Q3 1:45
Taj Griffin 49 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-21
TD · Q4 11:18
Greg Taboada 3 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com